Officials in Washington and Jerusalem hope to use F-35 fighter jets as a sweetener as part of a broader deal for Saudi relations with Israel.

It has been 46 years since Egypt established relations with Israel in 1979. Egypt remained the only Arab nation in the world to recognize Israel for more than 15 years, until it was followed by Jordan in 1994. More than two decades more passed without much progress. Then, in 2020, under the “Abraham Accords”—named to denote the shared roots of the Abrahamic religions of both Judaism and Islam—the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain established relations with the Jewish state, followed shortly by Morocco and Sudan.

There is now speculation that Saudi Arabia, one of the Arab world’s largest heavyweights and the home of Islam’s holiest sites, could be the next Arab nation to recognize relations. Yet it could still be an uphill battle with several issues to resolve—and Riyadh may need some enticing.

America Could Offer F-35s As Part of a Normalization Deal

Normalized relations with Israel are expected to be among the topics discussed when Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman meets with President Donald Trump at the White House this week. Trump, who presided over the signing of the Abraham Accords at the White House in 2020, has suggested that only his deal-making skills will result in Saudi recognition of Israel.  

“I hope that Saudi Arabia will be going into the Abraham Accords fairly shortly,” Trump told reporters last week.

Riyadh has previously indicated that any recognition of Israel would hinge on Israel’s commitment to a Palestinian state—a hard no for many on Israel’s far right, including several members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet. Still, some hope that an arms deal could get Saudi Arabia over the finish line—specifically a deal for the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II.

Riyadh has officially requested to purchase the fifth-generation stealth fighter as it seeks to enhance its military capabilities, although Washington has committed to supporting the deal. Several concerns remain about the sale, including preserving Israel’s “qualitative military edge” (QME) and the Saudi use of Chinese technology, the latter of which could compromise the security of the fighter.

Despite these hurdles, the US has already indicated a willingness to support such a deal, notably if it could lead to the normalization of ties between the Saudis and Israel.

Israel Doesn’t Mind Saudi F-35 Fighter Jets—for the Right Price

Officials from Israel have also suggested that Jerusalem would support a deal under the right conditions.

“We told the Trump administration that the supply of F-35s to Saudi Arabia needs to be subject to Saudi normalization with Israel,” an Israeli official told Axios, adding that the aircraft should be used as a bargaining chip.

Israel had previously opposed the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) efforts to acquire the F-35, but relented in order to conclude the Abraham Accords. As it happened, Abu Dhabi never did obtain the fifth-generation fighter, and is now considering other options, including a Chinese-made stealth fighter.

This time around, there is less concern about Saudi Arabia obtaining the fighter, perhaps because Jerusalem would prefer that Saudi Arabia doesn’t move closer to China and away from the United States.

“Unlike the supply of F-35s to Turkey that we strongly oppose, we are less concerned about such a weapons system in Saudi Arabia if it’s part of a regional security cooperation as part of the Abraham Accords, like we have with the United Arab Emirates,” a second Israeli official told Axios.

Saudi Arabia—which currently allocates an astounding 8.1 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) to defense—remains the largest buyer of American military hardware in the world. Riyadh has been seeking a fifth-generation fighter for several years as it endeavors to further modernize its air force. It currently operates the F-15 Eagle, including the F-15SA variant, along with the Eurofighter Typhoon and older aircraft, notably the Panavia Tornado.

Like Jerusalem, Washington would not want to see Riyadh pivot to Beijing.

What About Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge?

Currently, Israel is the only Middle Eastern country operating the F-35. Until Trump’s first term, the issue of other buyers of the fifth-generation fighter in the region had not even arisen. Since 2008, US law has required that any arms sale to Middle Eastern countries must be evaluated to ensure that it will not negatively affect Israel’s QME. Although there is no formal definition of QME in US law, the rule is intended to ensure that the Jewish state has military superiority over its neighbors and possible rivals. Washington provides security assistance, primarily through the Foreign Military Financing (FMF), to ensure that Israel maintains its edge.

However, QME isn’t just about the F-35 or other advanced weapons systems. It also includes the quality of Israel’s soldiers, training, leadership, and tactics.

This could explain why Jerusalem has softened its view on the matter. For one thing, Israel already operates a unique variant of the fighter, the F-35I Adir, which has been integrated with indigenously developed weapons and systems, notably an electronic warfare suite. Initially, the United States had refused to allow such changes, but eventually agreed to allow Israel to integrate its own EWS, including sensors and countermeasures, on top of the US systems.

Moreover, advances in drones and other autonomous systems may serve as a reminder that the F-35 could be old news by the time any were to land in Riyadh, which likely wouldn’t be until the early 2030s at the soonest.  

Saudi Arabia isn’t the only Arab nation that has expressed interest in the F-35. In addition to the United Arab Emirates’ aborted attempt to purchase the fighter jet, Egypt, Bahrain, and Morocco have also made clear that they would seek to adopt it if that were an option. Morocco, which has also normalized relations with Israel, is likely to encounter the least resistance from Israel, given the vast distance between the two.

About the Author: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu has contributed over 3,200 published pieces to more than four dozen magazines and websites over a 30-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a contributing writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. He is based in Michigan. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: Editor@nationalinterest.org.

Image: Shutterstock / Vishne Stan.

The post Could Saudi Arabia Get the F-35 If It Recognizes Israel? appeared first on The National Interest.