At the end of the day, power is measured in terms of control over tangible infrastructure, not just digital networks.

Many geopolitical analysts argue that artificial intelligence or another advanced technology will “define” this century. This may prove true in the long arc of technological rivalry and progress, but history reminds us that power ultimately follows the movement of goods, capital, and people. Transit corridors, not algorithms, determine which states connect markets and which become bypassed. The ability to move resources and project influence through infrastructure has shaped every major power competition from Rome and Byzantium to the Cold War. Today, that same principle is reemerging in Central Asia, where connectivity—railways, pipelines, highways, and ports—is becoming the actual currency of power.

Beijing has long understood this through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In 2025, through BRI financing, the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway was launched, a flagship component of its overland connectivity strategy. While the rail line is not expected to be fully operational for several years, its geopolitical significance is clear, as it establishes a southern branch of the Middle Corridor that bypasses Russian territory and strengthens Beijing’s direct logistical reach across Eurasia.

Kazakhstan: The Supply Chain Anchor of US Trans-Caspian Strategy

The Trump administration is finally treating Kazakhstan as the supply chain anchor that it is. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau and US Special Envoy for South and Central Asia Sergio Gor met senior Kazakh officials in Almaty and Astana in late October 2025 to advance trade, investment, and regional cooperation, a clear signal that US strategy now recognizes Kazakhstan as its principal partner in Central Asia. 

According to media reports, Gor conveyed greetings from President Trump and emphasized “the strategic importance of the Central Asian region in US foreign policy.” Landau noted that he was “starting to feel at home here,” highlighting the personal diplomacy backing Washington’s renewed engagement.

For the United States, one of the surest ways to translate strategy into leverage is modernizing Kazakhstan’s national railway system, and that process has already begun. The $4.2 billion agreement between Wabtec Corporation and Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ) for 300 Evolution Series locomotives and long-term maintenance, the largest in Wabtec’s history, signals that the US industry can compete and lead in infrastructure modernization. This partnership strengthens the Middle Corridor, the trans-Eurasian route linking China, Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Europe without reliance on Russian or Iranian transit channels.

Cargo volume along this corridor reached 4.5 million tons in 2024 and could climb to 15 million tons annually within a few years. The payoff for the United States and its partners is not simply commercial, but geopolitical. Every additional train traversing Kazakhstan strengthens an alternative network of connectivity.

Even under the newly imposed tariffs, including a 25 percent US duty on non-strategic imports, Kazakh products have proven profitable and competitive. The Kostanay flour exports by UMI Capital Holding, now distributed through Amazon and Walmart, demonstrate that Kazakh firms can meet US quality and logistics standards. These examples reveal an economy transitioning from raw material dependency to value-added manufacturing.

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s September visit to New York further illustrated this trajectory. In meetings with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, US Chamber CEO Suzanne Clark, and senior executives from Chevron, ExxonMobil, Goldman Sachs, Cameco, and Amazon, both sides reaffirmed interest in a broader economic partnership anchored in infrastructure, energy, and digital industries.

This momentum was highlighted in Washington’s high-level diplomacy at the C5+1 Summit in November, which brought together the United States, Kazakhstan, and other Central Asian nations. Following President Tokayev’s meeting with Secretary of State Rubio ahead of the Summit, a State Department spokesman stated that the two countries “committed to deepening their partnership to secure critical minerals access and bolster energy security, while reinforcing US supply chains and offering enhanced commercial opportunities for both Kazakhstan and our nation.”

This renewed partnership has already produced significant economic outcomes. In addition to the landmark Wabtec locomotive agreement, US private-capital firm Cove Capital has pledged $1.1 billion to develop a tungsten mining and processing plant. In comparison, Kazakhstan has purchased $7 billion in Boeing 787 aircraft for the Air Astana fleet and at least $3 billion in John Deere agricultural machinery. Beyond commercial cooperation, Kazakhstan’s joining the Abraham Accords further demonstrates Astana’s multi-vector foreign policy and commitment to conflict resolution.

QazTrade and Kazakh Invest’s Dual Engines of Investment

Behind this momentum in US-Kazakh economic cooperation stand two institutions that shape diplomacy into commerce.

QazTrade, under Astana’s Ministry of Trade and Integration, serves as Kazakhstan’s primary export-promotion agency. It provides analytical and financial support to firms seeking to enter foreign markets, adapt products to international standards, and establish direct commercial links with American buyers. Its four-pillar model—export acceleration, trade missions, logistics cost reimbursement, and marketing alignment—embodies Kazakhstan’s shift toward globally competitive manufacturing and agribusiness. For US buyers seeking alternative sourcing, QazTrade’s work turns the abstract concept of “diversified corridors” into concrete supply-chain options.

Kazakh Invest functions as the country’s “single window” for foreign investors. It coordinates Kazakhstan’s relations with ministries and regional administrations, assists with permits and land allocation, and safeguards investor rights through the Council of Foreign Investors. Its digital platform streamlines engagement and offers predictability that appeals to Western boards and CFOs accustomed to OECD standards. More than 600 US companies already operate in Kazakhstan, demonstrating that these institutions are not theoretical but operational partners.

American investment in Kazakhstan now exceeds $100 billion, reflecting both sustained commercial confidence and a recognition of the country’s stable macroeconomic foundation. Astana has built one of the most transparent tax systems in the region, concluded more than 50 double taxation treaties, and ensured most-favored-nation status for foreign investors. Ongoing reforms in the judicial system and property rights further strengthen the investment climate, an essential signal for long-term American partners seeking predictability and rule-based engagement.

Looking ahead, Kazakhstan offers significant new opportunities for US firms in critical mineral extraction and processing, agriculture, and agri-tech. Its expanding capacity to produce and export environmentally sustainable, value-added goods aligns directly with US priorities for resilient, clean, and diversified supply chains.

Together, QazTrade and Kazakh Invest form the dual architecture through which Washington can implement its Eurasian economic strategy. The former facilitates exports to the US, while the latter channels American capital into Kazakh infrastructure, logistics, and midstream industrial projects, including rare-earth and battery-metal processing.

Ditching the Jackson-Vanik Amendment

For US policymakers, the lesson is clear: engaging Kazakhstan advances multiple strategic objectives simultaneously.

First, Kazakhstan provides a stable, rules-based environment for diversification away from high-risk geographies, enhancing supply-chain resilience. Second, the Middle Corridor offers transit times of 14–18 days, compared with 30 days by sea, creating a credible alternative to maritime chokepoints vulnerable to coercion. Third, Kazakhstan’s reserves of rare earth minerals and battery metals align directly with US industrial-policy priorities under the Mineral Security Partnership. Fourth, joint initiatives between the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and Kazakh Invest could finance rail, energy, and digital infrastructure that strengthen both economic growth and geopolitical balance.

Congress’s introduction of HR 1024, the US-Kazakhstan Trade Modernization Act, to remove Kazakhstan from the outdated Jackson-Vanik Amendment, signals bipartisan recognition of this strategy. Eliminating that Cold War-era relic would clear the final legal hurdle to normalized trade and unlock broader US investment.

The continued enforcement of the Jackson-Vanik Amendment has become an obstacle to US economic engagement in Central Asia. It now directly constrains the effectiveness of the emerging “Business Dialogue” (B5+1) initiative under the C5+1 diplomatic framework, which convened in Washington in early November and included the participation of the presidents of the United States and the five Central Asian republics: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The C5+1 format was conceived as a mechanism for the United States to work collectively with the region, addressing shared challenges and opportunities without reliance on intermediaries such as Russia or China.

Repealing this outdated law would deliver tangible benefits for both sides. The primary beneficiaries would be US technology and energy firms, including Tesla, Apple, and Google, that depend on reliable access to lithium, rare earths, and other critical minerals. Central Asia holds a significant chunk of global reserves of key inputs like uranium, lithium, tungsten, and germanium. Removing legal barriers would not only improve supply chain security but also sharpen the global competitiveness of American industry.

Currently, the Jackson-Vanik Amendment restricts Central Asian countries’ access to essential US financial instruments, such as Export-Import Bank (EXIM) loans and guarantees, needed to finance large-scale mining and infrastructure projects. These programs are fundamental to attracting private sector capital into billion-dollar developments where risk and capital intensity are high. Without them, American firms are at a disadvantage in markets where China already provides state-backed financing, long-term contracts, and politically conditioned credit lines, often accompanied by unsustainable debt burdens.

Lifting the amendment would allow US companies to compete on fair terms, unlock new commercial opportunities, and reinforce a rules-based economic architecture across Eurasia that advances US strategic and commercial interests alike.

Central Asia’s Corridor for American Strategy

The contest over Eurasia’s future will not be decided by AI algorithms alone. It will be determined by who builds, finances, and secures the transit corridors through which the world’s goods, energy, and data flow. China’s railways are already advancing. The United States can still match that momentum, but only if it treats Kazakhstan not as a peripheral partner but as the anchor of its Central Asian strategy.

A modernized Kazakh railway system, supported by US technology and capital, would form the backbone of a diversified trans-Eurasian supply network, reducing exposure to chokepoints, expanding access to critical minerals, and reinforcing a US-shaped open, rules-based trading order.

While artificial intelligence will ultimately define the tools of power, connectivity will define its reach. And at the center of the Eurasian map, Kazakhstan stands as the bridge on which America’s economic and strategic future can stand.

About the Author: Darren G. Spinck

Darren Spinck is an associate fellow at the Henry Jackson Society and author of Securing the Strait: Engaging Taiwan in the UK’s Indo-Pacific Tilt. He is also the managing director for the Janus Forum and a managing partner of Washington Consulting Solutions, a full-service public affairs agency. In his role at Washington Consulting Solutions, Mr. Spinck focuses on policy analysis, strategic message development, and public advocacy programs for international clients seeking support with public diplomacy, reputation management, and crisis communications.

Image: Alleks19760526 / Shutterstock.com.

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