Saturday Night Five: Pac-12 dodges COVID in Week Five while tiebreaker chaos looms
Reaction to Pac-12 developments on the field and off …
1. Pac-12 five, COVID zero
You wouldn’t know there’s a pandemic based on team availability in Week Five: All five games went off as scheduled on Saturday, and the sixth is on track for Sunday.
If the USC-Washington State game is played — and we anticipate it will be, based on the testing results thus far — then this will mark the first weekend of the 2020 season that the Pac-12 doesn’t experience a cancellation.
Of course, the previous four weeks have been filled with havoc, with multiple cancellations in each.
Yes, good fortune is part of the current equation.
You can follow protocols to the letter and still have one of 90-something players exposed during a quick trip to the store.
You can test relentlessly and still be the victim of an erroneous result that disrupts the entire week.
You can social distance well enough to make Dr. Fauci proud and still have a random contact tracer decide your entire offensive line should be in quarantine.
Some of this is luck in its purest form.
But it’s also about understanding risk levels and making smart decisions and settling into a rhythm.
And while the Hotline has zero evidence to support our belief, we cannot help but wonder if the Pac-12 players have, collectively, figured it out.
If they’ve figured out how to navigate the pandemic in a way that creates the best chance for their next test to be negative.
Adjustments have been made to the routines.
Changes have been made to the protocols.
Reminders have been issued from the coaches and staff.
Maybe, everyone is just settling in.
That doesn’t mean there won’t be cases. Heck, several teams had cases this week. And teams will have cases next week.
But it’s all about mitigation: case mitigation, close contact mitigation … risk mitigation.
That, and learning from mistakes.
2. Chaos looms: North division
Washington got the result it needed in Berkeley but couldn’t take care of its own business in Seattle.
As a result, the Huskies failed to clinch the North and face Oregon next weekend with the division at stake.
If Washington (3-1) wins, it’s over.
If Oregon (3-2) wins, then the Ducks claim the division — and it won’t matter what happens elsewhere.
The Ducks would hold the head-to-head advantage against each team that could finish with two losses (UW, Stanford and WSU).
Of course, all this assumes that Washington State loses at USC on Sunday or to Cal next week. If the Cougars win out and Oregon beats Washington, then your North champion resides in Pullman.
However, there is this little nugget to chew on:
If the Huskies are unable to play next weekend because of COVID, they would win the division.
Yep, sitting out would clinch it for them: The Huskies would finish 3-1 and claim the North based on winning percentage in conference games.
I’m sure that would go over well in Eugene.
3. Chaos looms: South division
The situation is actually more combustible in the South, because of the potential for Colorado and USC to finish unbeaten.
In the event both teams win out, the Buffaloes would be 4-0 in conference but only 3-0 in the division.
USC would be 5-0 in conference and 4-0 in the division.
Without the head-to-head result, the tiebreaker would move to the second step: Division record, which is USC’s advantage.
So, yes: Colorado could very well finish the season as one of two unbeaten teams but not have a chance to play for the championship because of games canceled by its opponents (ASU and USC).
And because of the North vs. South format in the conference championship game.
FOX announcer Joel Klatt sounded off on this issue Saturday evening, tweeting:
“The Pac 12 is really going to keep their division format this season and put a team with a loss in the Champ Game vs. USC while a potentially undefeated @CUBuffsFootball team watches aren’t they You do you, Pac 12, you do you
“Keep in mind that the cancellation of both the ASU and USC game for Colorado was due to COVID issues with those teams… Do away with the division format immediately and allow two undefeated teams the opportunity to play for the Conference crown…Massive implications
“Due to the fact that CU and USC haven’t had the opportunity to play this is not only reasonable, but obvious to any objective observer.”
OK, two thoughts here:
1) Klatt played for CU
2) He is also an advocate for doing away with the division format in general — in all conferences — so this isn’t an alma-mater soapbox situation.
There is some merit to the approach, especially this year. (The ACC scrapped its divisions in 2020.)
But the Pac-12’s athletic directors voted on the process for determining the football championship game participants this year, and they simply aren’t going to abandon the division-winner model, unless …
4. Chaos looms: No divisions
There is one more matter worth mentioning:
If the average number of conference games played (by all teams) falls to four, then the division winners wouldn’t automatically advance to the championship game.
Instead, the teams with the best winning percentage would square off.
That’s how Colorado could play for the title.
In fact, the Buffaloes probably would play USC for the title.
Here’s the wording from the conference policy on the postseason formulas:
“In the event that the average number of conference games falls to 4 or below, the two teams with the best winning percentage (both divisional and cross-divisional) within the conference will participate in the Pac- 12 Football Championship Game (regardless of division affiliation).”
Through this weekend, and assuming the USC-WSU game is played on Sunday, the average stands at 3.8 games per team.
The conference rounds up/down at .50, which means the average number at the end of next weekend must be at least 4.5 in order to preserve the traditional process.
By our math — and I have not cross-checked this with Pac-12 HQ (it’s late) — there must be four conference games played next weekend in order for the division winners to meet in the championship game.
That would increase the total to 54, or 4.5 per team.
5. The rise of the Bay Area
Stanford and Cal delivered the biggest surprises of the weekend, winning their games outright as double-digit underdogs.
Quite frankly, the Cardinal and Bears finally played the way the Hotline expected back when we picked them to finish in a three-way tie with Oregon for the North title (with all three teams at 4-2).
Both have experienced significant, and steady, disruption:
— Stanford, with the testing error that caused quarterback Davis Mills to miss the Oregon game and the week of preparation leading into Colorado; and then with the relocation to Seattle this week.
— Cal, with the quarantining of its entire defensive line for the opener, then three starters on the offensive line, then more defensive linemen.
The COVID issues alone didn’t account for their struggles, but both teams appeared to solve their problems this week with performances that were very on-brand.
The Cardinal followed its running game to victory — in that regard, Stanford was on-brand for the 2009-17 seasons — while Cal relied on defense, grit and grind.
(Oregon has scored 17 points against the Bears in each of the past two meetings.)
Both programs have endured COVID chaos that was thrust upon them by local health officials whose policies don’t always seem to align with common sense or science.
And yet, here they are with four games played and two or three more upcoming.
Given their circumstances, the wins today were much needed and well earned.
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