San Francisco's Dominant Win Over Eagles Leads To Shakeup In MVP and Super Bowl Futures

Big parlay payouts and some bad beats, along with San Francisco's big win in Philadelphia headline the betting action from Week 13.

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49ers' dominating 42-19 victory over the Eagles resulted in a shake-up in two notable futures' betting markets. Immediately after San Francisco handed Philadelphia (10-2) just their second loss of the season, oddsmakers installed the NFC West power as the new betting favorite (+350) to win Super Bowl LVIII. After his stellar four-touchdown performance, Brock Purdy (+300) was placed ahead of Jalen Hurts (+350) in the 2023 NFL MVP market.

Favorites wildly continue to win in the NFL, while also beating the spread at a lucrative rate for bettors. Overall, the higher power-ranked teams by oddsmakers possess an amazing 132-60 SU (68.8%) record through 13 weeks of action.

Tyreek Hill and the Dolphins grabbed a share of the best record (9-3) in the AFC after beating Washington 45-15. Miami, who owns the highest-scoring offense in the conference, will look to remain undefeated at home (5-0) next week when they host Tennessee on Monday night as 13-point home favorites.

The Steelers, who were upset 24-10 by the Cardinals, continue to struggle on offense. Pittsburgh (7-5) dubiously owns the 5th worst points differential (-37) by a team with a winning record through 12 games in the Super Bowl era. Mike Tomlin's squad will look to bounce back on a short week when they host the 2-10 Patriots on Thursday Night Football as 6.5-point home favorites.

Bryce Young and the Panthers, who fell to an NFL worst 1-11 on the season, shocked bettors by covering the spread for only the second time this season in the club’s 21-18 road loss at Tampa Bay (2-8-2 ATS).

Bettors witnessed primetime games go 2-0 to the over on the week, but unders still own a commanding 28-11 (71.8%) edge. In simple wagering terms, if a bettor were to blindly wager $100 on every primetime game this season they would find a profit of $1,559.

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11-Leg $5 ‘Bonus Bet’ Parlay Results In $5K Hit

One bettor named @ecourrier54 on X placed a $5 ‘Bonus Bet’ 11-leg parlay wager at DraftKings Sportsbook consisting of five favorites, one underdog and five game totals.

The investment consisted of Detroit (-4), Indianapolis (-1), Atlanta (-2), Tampa Bay (-175), Rams (-3.5), Arizona (+6.5), Miami-Washington Over 49.5, Chargers-Patriots Under 38.5, Denver-Houston Under 47 and 49ers-Eagles Over 47. The ticket concluded when the Chiefs-Packers Sunday night showdown went Over 43 points.

The $5 wager at odds of +10329 returned an impressive payout of $5,164.

Multiple Player Two-Touchdown Parlay Leads To Solid Score

In Week 13, several players scored multiple touchdowns. One bettor by the name of @jackwhite.3 on Instagram cashed in the scoring bonanza.

The incredible $10 wager involved running backs Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara as well as 49ers wideout Deebo Samuel all scoring 2+ touchdowns in their respective matchups.

After Henry and Kamara scored twice in the early Sunday slate, the sweat commenced. After Samuel was shut out of the end zone in the first half, the versatile wideout scored twice in the third quarter of San Francisco’s 42-19 blowout win over Philadelphia.

The $10 wager returned $6,127 thanks to faith in three elite talents performing the rare feat of finding pay dirt more than once in a single contest.

Betting Landscape

In Week 13, bettors witnessed road teams go 7-5 SU and 8-4 ATS. On the year, home teams own a solid 104-83 SU (55.6%) mark, but road teams own the ATS advantage at 94-88-5 ATS (51.6%) on the season.

*Editor's Note: International games (5 are not included in home / road stats

Bettors watched favorites go 10-2 both SU and 8-4 ATS, leaving favorites with a 105-82-5 ATS (56.1%) edge on the year.

Games were higher scoring than oddsmakers expected posting a 8-4 mark to the over on the week. On the year, unders still own a sizable lead with a mark of 110-81-1 (57.6%).

Bad Beat

Field Goal Kicked After Time Expires Hands Bettors Bad Beat On SNF

Harrison Butker’s first quarter 34-yard field goal cut Green Bay’s lead to 7-3 over Kansas City. However, TV cameras clearly show the kick should never have been allowed as the clock had expired prior to the Chiefs snapping the ball.

Officials should have blown the play end, signaling the end of the first quarter and had Butker attempt the kick at the start of the second quarter on the opposite end of the field.

The egregious error by the game’s Sunday night officiating crew handed first quarter 7.5-point Under bettors a horrible bad beat.

Significant Decisions In Favor of Sportsbooks In Week 13

78% of money on Pittsburgh -6

• Bettors steamed the opening line from -3.5 to -6, but Arizona pulled off the biggest upset of the week beating the Steelers 24-10 at Acrisure Stadium.

75% of money on Denver +3

• Russell Wilson and the Broncos were backed as the strongest underdog option on the board in Week 13, but CJ Stroud and the Texans improved to 5-2 at NRG Stadium beating Denver 22-17.

82% of money on Tampa Bay / Carolina Under (36.5)

• While bettors were predicting a low-scoring affair between two of the worst offenses in the NFC, a 29-point second half sent the game over the total following a Tampa Bay 21-18 victory.

77% of money on Kansas City -6

• Many NFL bettors backed Patrick Mahomes as a road favorite in his first game at Lambeau Field on Sunday night. However, Jordan Love and the Packers won their third consecutive game upsetting the Chiefs. 

SURVIVOR POOL

Recap

In Week 13, Survivor pool contestants around the country strongly selected the Steelers (-6) over the Cardinals, Buccaneers (-4.5) over Carolina and Chargers (-4) over the Patriots.

The attraction of using favored teams is enhanced by the fact that in Survivor Pools, teams do not need to cover any spread - they just need to win the game.

In Week 13 of the NFL season, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay and the Chargers made up over 95% of the selections in Survivor contests.

While Tampa Bay and the Chargers all won, many Survivor players were eliminated when Arizona earned their first road (1-6) win of the season upsetting the Steelers.

Look-Ahead

Here are four games that will likely be heavily chosen by Survivor Pool entrants in Week 14.

Baltimore (-7.5) vs LA Rams

Houston (-6.5) at NY Jets

San Francisco (-12.5) vs Seattle

Miami (-13.5) vs Tennessee

Despite teams in Survivor Pools only needing to win the game and not cover point spreads, entrants can only use each team once during the regular season making strategy on when to select a team vitally important.

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