NFL Week 14 Fantasy Football Air Yards Breakdown: Nico Collins Answers the Bell
After star rookie Tank Dell was lost for the season, Collins reminded the Texans they still have a viable No. 1 receiver.
In our weekly Air Yards Breakdown, we’ll take a look at who led the NFL in this category and also go one step further. Air yards can be further split into or “prayer yards.” Prayer yards are just what they sound like—air yards on passes that are deemed uncatchable. In other words, targets that the receiver doesn’t have a prayer of catching. Prayer yards lead to a player’s boom-bust potential.
Sources for all data can be found at the end of the article.
Week 13 Summary
NFL Week 13 Air Yards Leaderboard
— Dan Falkenheim (@thefalkon) December 7, 2023
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Joe Flacco Breathes Life Into Elijah Moore
Flacco, now playing in his 16th NFL season, filled in for an injured Dorian Thompson-Robinson and revived his connection with Moore, a teammate in their Jets playing days. He hit Moore on a wide open out route for an 11-yard gain, two play-action shots that went for 42 yards and 22 yards, respectively, and completed a seven-yard pass on a comeback. Beyond his receptions, Moore also saw targets of 36, 38, 22 and 45 air yards. (He had little chance for a reception on any of those throws.)
Competent quarterback play can create friendly fantasy situations, as Moore knows. Flacco was the quarterback who led Moore to his breakout eight catch, 141 yard, one touchdown performance as a rookie, and Moore has never had more receiving yards in a game since then. Moore has a chance to become fantasy relevant with wideout Amari Cooper in concussion protocol.
Troy Taormina/USA TODAY Sports
Nico Collins Dominates, Again
After Tank Dell suffered a season-ending ankle injury late in the first quarter, Collins stepped up. The third-year wideout had a career-high nine receptions and 191 receiving yards on 143 air yards on his way to 34.1 PPR points. He was repeatedly open deep downfield, reeling in targets of 49, 34 and 23 air yards. Collins is now nine yards away from his first 1,000-yard season and will be C.J. Stroud’s primary receiving weapon down the stretch.
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Courtland Sutton Thrives on the Deep Ball
Sutton had six targets of 25-plus air yards in Week 13, the most in a single game since Chris Olave had seven such targets in Week 2 of the 2022 season. They’re not all prayers, either. Sutton bobbled and dropped a 44-yard deep shot down the middle of the field before he ultimately caught a 45-yard touchdown grab. As long as Wilson trusts Sutton in one-on-one situations, Sutton is capable of turning in splash weeks.
Week 14 Lookahead
Is Cooper Kupp on the Verge of a Lost Season?
Quietly, Kupp has struggled since the Rams’ Week 10 bye. His average depth of target has been sliced to 4.3 yards and he’s had three straight games of 30 or fewer air yards—the only other time that happened was late in the 2020 season. The simplest explanation is that Kupp is not fully healthy: Despite logging three full practices last week, Kupp did suffer a lateral ankle sprain 18 days ago and said he wasn’t 100% as recently as Week 12. Looking at the bigger picture, though, Los Angeles’ offense hasn’t centered on the 30-year-old wideout as much.
Kupp’s contract might engender offseason conversations about his future beyond 2024 but, in the meantime, he does play the woeful Commanders defense, a Marshon Lattimore-less Saints coverage unit and the Giants in Weeks 15-17. There’s at least a glimmer of hope that this most recent three-week stretch doesn’t turn into a full-on second half slump.
Kirthmon F. Dozier/USA TODAY Sports
Sam LaPorta Is Having an Historic Rookie Tight End Season
LaPorta’s nine-catch, 140 receiving yard, one touchdown game on 87 air yards has the Iowa rookie inching up the record books. Since 2006, when air yards were first tracked, there have only been two rookie tight ends with more than 600 air yards and 650 receiving yards through Week 13: Kyle Pitts and now LaPorta. He has a legitimate chance to break the rookie tight end receptions record (81) and become the third rookie tight end ever to cross 1,000 receiving yards.
LaPorta is positioned well to do just that with fantasy playoff matchups against the Broncos, Vikings and Cowboys.
Don’t Sweat Patriots Wide Receivers
With Demario Douglas sidelined due to a concussion, the Patriots stuck with a three-man receiving unit of JuJu Smith-Schuster, DeVante Parker and Tyquan Thornton in a gross 6-0 loss to the Chargers. Parker led the way with four catches for 64 yards on a season-high 142 air yards, but it wasn’t pretty. He had two drops, often failed to create separation and went 1-for-3 on contested deep targets. The usage makes Parker a low-end WR4 but he’s hard to roster with any confidence in matchups against the Steelers and Chiefs.
Beyond the individual usage, the Patriots offense is historically bad. New England’s -0.233 EPA on passing attempts ranks 738th out of 767 teams since 2000. There’s no ceiling to chase.
Quick Prayer Yards Notes
NFL Week 13 Prayer Yards Leaderboard
— Dan Falkenheim (@thefalkon) December 7, 2023
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- Titans quarterback Will Levis sailed a 29-yard pass toward the sideline and out of DeAndre Hopkins’s grasp, leading to a sideline flare up, and missed Hopkins on another 38-yard desperation heave late in the third quarter. Levis isn’t afraid to chuck it.
- Browns rookie wideout Cedric Tillman had no chance on a pair of 27- and 51-yard throws in the first quarter. He has had at least an 87% route participation rate in each of the last four weeks but doesn’t have much production to show for it.
- More than half of Zay Jones’s air yards came on two deep shots in the fourth quarter: Jones created separation but couldn’t connect with Lawrence on a 43-yard go ball, and later C.J. Beathard overthrew Jones by about five yards on a 49-yard deep shot. Jones, tight end Evan Engram and rookie wide receiver Parker Washington all have a chance to see increased opportunity with wideout Christian Kirk sidelined with a core injury.
Data Sources
- Yards, receptions, touchdowns, air yards and EPA pulled via nflverse
- Catchable air yards, prayer yards and play action data from FTN Data via nflverse
- Personnel data pulled from Joseph Hefner’s formations app
- Route participation pulled via Fantasy Life’s Utilization Report
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