Arab, Muslim Americans could abandon Biden, Democrats, warn advocates

Alarms are growing louder for Democrats over the potential that Muslim American and Arab American voters could shun them in next year’s presidential election.

Muslim Americans and Arab Americans have expressed growing anger over President Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war, with many leaders in the community warning they won’t vote for Biden next year, even if the GOP alternative is former President Trump.

“The responses of many on this issue within the Palestinian American community, the broader Arab community, is really a sense of betrayal,” Yousef Munayyer, policy analyst and senior fellow at the Arab Center in Washington, told The Hill.

These voters could have an outsized impact on some, states, too, such as Michigan — a swing state with a significant Arab American population.

A spokesperson for the Biden reelection campaign told The Hill the president is working with leaders in the Muslim and Palestinian communities, including on countering rising Islamophobia.

“President Biden knows the importance of earning the trust of every community, of upholding the sacred dignity and rights of all Americans,” the spokesperson said in a statement.  

“The President and this administration have been unequivocal: there is no place for Islamophobia, xenophobia, or any of the vile racism we have seen in recent weeks.”

Arab American support for Democrats in general seems to have been waning over the past few years. 

A 2017 report from the Pew Research Center found about two-thirds of Muslim voters lean Democratic. But Trump’s support among Muslim voters increased 4 percent between 2016 and 2020, according to exit polling from the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), one of the most high-profile American-Islamic advocacy groups.

The Biden spokesperson sought to contrast the Democratic administration with Trump, who memorably introduced a travel ban on several predominantly Muslim nations in his first days in office.

“As MAGA Republicans continue to run on an openly Islamophobic platform — including renewed support for Donald Trump's Muslim ban — the stakes of next year's election could not be more consequential,” the spokesperson said.

Biden’s support for Israel in the war has chafed at some Muslim Americans.

Ahmad Abuznaid, executive director for the U.S. Campaign for Palestinian Rights Action, said the administration’s continued unwavering support for Israel and denouncement of any criticism toward the Israel military show politicians on the wrong side of history — and that voters of color, particularly, see this as a pattern. 

“By the time the elections roll around in 2024, Palestinians and Arabs and folks who are concerned with Palestine have been having to set aside their feelings and vote, regardless of the party's position on Palestine for quite some time,” Abuznaid told The Hill. “I think this time folks really feel betrayed by these political parties; they feel betrayed by these leaders in a way that maybe they hadn't before.”

Munayyer said he doesn’t see Palestinian and Arab voters suddenly flocking to Trump and the GOP. Instead, voters could just stay home. 

“Biden was presented as the alternative to Trump, the way to sort of save democracy, the way to sort of safeguard the rights of minorities,” Munayyer said. “The decision that was placed before voters was really stark and characterized as a choice between protecting democracy and fascism. And for people who are watching these horrific crimes being carried out with U.S. support, they no longer see that difference as starkly as they used to.”

The Democratic Party has been divided over the war since the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas on Israel, which led to a bombardment of Gaza by Israel’s military.

Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), the only Palestinian American in Congress, has sought to pass legislation calling for a cease-fire, which has been opposed by other Democrats.

Last month, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) joined House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) at a pro-Israel rally. 

In early November, the House voted 234-188 to censure Tlaib for her pro-Palestinian rhetoric, a move that in itself may have turned more Arab and Muslim Americans away from Biden and Democrats. 

Yet this may also be leading other Muslims to jump into the political arena in the hopes of joining Tlaib. During the 2022 midterm cycle, 146 Muslim candidates ran for public office. Eighty-two were elected, according to CAIR. 

“Over the last few years, we have seen an increase in at least state-based representatives and others elected on the local level that have been of Palestinian heritage or are Palestinian and I expect no differently in 2024,” Abuznaid said. 

The risks for Democrats go beyond Arab American voters.

Advocates are warning that the Democratic Party could also lose wide-ranging support from young voters and voters of color.

At protests around the country, Muslim Americans have been joined by young people, Black Americans and Jewish Americans who disagree with the Israeli government’s policies.

“One of the problems that the Democrats have, particularly elected officials in Congress, they're falling in line behind the president on this issue that has become a partisan issue over the last 15 years or so,” Munayyer said. “In the process, they've thrown the Palestinian American community under the bus and … a much wider group of constituents who care about this issue and I think it's going to have devastating consequences for the President and for Democrats.”

It’s not too late for Biden to reengage these voters, but Munayyer warns it won’t be easy. 

“It's really hard for people to forget what they're seeing. This is not a question of a candidate who maybe doesn't support three out of my five preferred policy issues, it’s a candidate that’s backing my dehumanization and the murder of thousands of members of my people and family,” he explained.