The next big UFC welterweight title tilt is nearly upon us.

UFC 296 goes down this Saturday night inside the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas and will be headlined by the first 170-pound UFC title fight to not feature Kamaru Usman since Tyron Woodley submitted Darren Till with a second-round D’arce choke in September 2018. Instead, the upcoming bout will see two of Usman’s biggest career rivals collide as the reigning champion Leon Edwards defends against Colby Covington.

Usman’s biggest and best bouts during his reign came on two occasions against “Chaos,” where he won by fifth-round TKO and a unanimous decision. His two most recent title fight appearances, however, saw him suffer losses to Edwards. “Rocky’s” star power reached a new level after his fifth-round comeback knockout of Usman in August 2022, but Covington began building his brand to a more potent extent dating back to his Demian Maia encounter in October 2017. Therefore, Usman doesn’t believe the duo are close in that department, especially when considering his own experiences.

“Colby Covington undeniably. It’s because of what he’s able to do,” Usman said on DC & RC of who the bigger star is. “If I’m in a room with Leon Edwards, Leon could be on the opposite side of the room and I’ll be on the other and everything will be just fine. If Colby Covington’s on the opposite side of the room, everybody in between in that room is nervous of what could happen. When you have that, and you’re able to make people feel a certain way about you, that’s what sets them apart from everyone. I don’t know if that’s particularly the route I would have went, but it’s what Colby has done and what has made him a star.”

Ahead of Usman vs. Covington 1 in December 2019, fans were thrilled by the prospect of seeing two of the sport’s best wrestlers test their ground skills against each other. The fight then proceeded to be a complete back-and-forth slugfest with no grappling exchanges to speak of.

The Covington rematch was similar, for the most part, but Edwards’ second and third clashes with Usman featured takedowns and attempts aplenty to varied successes. In terms of finishing ability, Usman historically has both men beat on the resume. Factoring in mightily for most when breaking down the matchup though is Covington’s near two-year absence. “Chaos” last fought in a winning effort at UFC 272 in March 2022 when he earned a unanimous decision nod over Jorge Masvidal.

“When I’ve been in there with a guy like Covington, Covington knows different things,” Usman said. “He knows that he cannot just go out there and physically impose his will with his wrestling on me like he can on most guys who don’t come from that typical wrestling background. So he has to fight me differently. Then with Leon as well, he understands that I’m going to wrestle the way that I’m gonna wrestle, I’m gonna grapple the way I’m gonna grapple, but at the same time, I can hit him with a shot and I can put him away. He might not respect that power of Covington like that. So you have just a much more intriguing fight with both of these guys going at each other.

“The big key here is Covington’s been out for a while now. Over a year. Now, for some guys, that does wonders for them. It allows them to be able to rejuvenate their bodies, to heal, to deal with certain things. For other guys, it takes them away from the action for so long that they get rusty. So the key here is which Covington is gonna come out? Is it the Colby Covington that fought me the first fight? Or is it this new guy that we haven’t seen for a year and a half? Because Leon is riding high on this confidence because I believe, he believes that he is the best welterweight on the planet right now.”

The oddsmakers give Covington a solid chance of pulling off the upset despite his time away, placing him as a +165 underdog to Edwards’ -190 favorite, per BestFightOdds. Ultimately, Usman has been the only thorn in Covington’s side atop the division throughout his 15-fight UFC career (12-3, 17-3 overall). If Covington can come into the bout unaffected by the layoff, Usman “100 percent” believes we’ll hear “and new” on Saturday. Edwards’ “dumb” confidence gives him the edge and easier reason to give him the official prediction, however.

“Colby would be the champion if a Kamaru Usman did not exist in that weight division,” Usman said. “That’s just the fact of the matter is, Colby might not have the punching power that I have per se to put you out in one shot but he does sting you with certain shots that you don’t expect. You get away with not respecting the power then he’ll sting you with an uppercut that’s like, ‘Oh, that kinda buzzed me a little bit.’ Then he just puts on this barrage of pressure that overwhelms most guys.

“We all know, nothing makes a coward out of an athlete more than fatigue. So if Colby Covington is able to weaponize that fatigue like he does, he might start to feel like he has the most power in the world.”

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VIDEO STEW

MMA Fighting’s Mike Heck chats with Jon Anik.

Embedded 2.

Edwards vs. Covington preview.

Shavkat.

More tech.

Fights that started it all.

Free fight.

The War Room

Paddy’s Jiu-Jitsu Rumble.

LISTEN UP

Heck of a Morning. MMA Fighting’s Mike Heck discusses win or lose, what’s next for Colby Covington after UFC 296 title fight vs. Leon Edwards?

MORNING MUSIC

SOCIAL MEDIA BOUILLABAISSE

Catch up.

An expected meeting.

Patience.

Humble.

FIGHT ANNOUNCEMENTS

Tatiana Suarez (11-0) vs. Amanda Lemos (13-3-1); UFC 298, Feb. 17

Lauren Murphy (16-6) vs. Karine Silva (17-4); UFC 299, March 9

Curtis Blaydes (17-4, 1 no contest) vs. Jailton Almeida (20-2); UFC 299, March 9

Mateusz Gamrot (23-2, 1 no contest) vs. Rafael Dos Anjos (32-15); UFC 299, March 9

Dariya Zheleznyakova (8-1) vs. Montserrat Rendón (6-0); UFC Fight Night, March 30

FINAL THOUGHTS

Thanks for reading!

EXIT POLL

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