Judge Bill Belichick by his post-Brady era, because that's what he would do
Rumors swirl that Belichick's on his way out after an awful season in New England. Letting him go would be a very Belichick-ian move.
Bill Belichick has eight Super Bowl rings. He’s won six of them as a head coach, all with the New England Patriots.
When it comes to judging him in 2023, this does not matter. The key to Belichick’s success as a head coach is addressing facts in real time, not letting past results cloud future success. New England’s extended reign so often stemmed from understanding it’s better to walk away from an aging player a year too early than a year too late.
By Belichick’s standard, nothing about this past season is acceptable. And as rumors swirl that his 24th season in Foxborough will be his last, his installation and adherence to a very specific Patriot Way ™ suggests he’s probably fine with that.
2023 has been a disaster for New England. The Pats have failed to hit even the modest expectations placed before them. Mac Jones couldn’t revert to rookie form under new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien and was eventually benched for a backup quarterback released on cut-down day. Belichick, in his role as personnel czar, signed JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mike Gesicki and extended DeVante Parker to boost his wide receiving corps alongside 2022 second round pick Tyquan Thornton. Between them they have 80 catches and 758 receiving yards. This would rank 28th-best in the NFL if you amalgamated all four of these players into a single target.
A still-useful defense suffered season-ending injuries to stars Christian Gonzalez and Matthew Judon, losing the ballast to keep that dead weight offense afloat. There was little talent available to fill that void. Josh Uche had 11.5 sacks in 2022 but has just two this fall. This is a problem, because he’s the third-best defensive draft pick Belichick has selected since 2018 (behind Kyle Dugger and Christian Barmore, who are undeniably very good).
This talent deficit has been too much for even the league’s most brilliant/devious head coach to make up. It’s been six years since his last Super Bowl win, which not coincidentally is also his last playoff victory. Those years in between were filled with a glimmer of contention, however. Even the first two years of the Jones era were defined by a 2021 Wild Card bid and a win-and-in Week 18 in 2022.
This is not the case in 2023. The Patriots are 3-10, one defeat away from tying Belichick’s record for single-season losses with three games left to play. Two of those victories came against Zach Wilson and Mitch Trubisky, which barely count (all three of those wins also mucked up the playoff hopes of the Buffalo Bills, New York Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers suggesting that, at the very least, Belichick still understands how to drive his rivals to the brink of madness). New England faced a brutal schedule this fall but still found ways to lose to the New York Giants, Washington Commanders, Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers.
None of this should be acceptable to Belichick. His resume, by his own standard, has no bearing on his current status — it merely serves as an asset while building a new era. This is a lesson fans have learned time and time again as the prickly world-beater shipped Pats heroes out of town, sometimes while he could still glean premium draft picks for them and sometimes just to create space for younger players.
Richard Seymour? He brought back a first-round pick after eight Hall of Fame-worthy seasons in New England.
Logan Mankins? The six-time All-Pro finished his career in Tampa Bay because Belichick judged more value in the draft compensation he’d bring back than in his veteran contributions to the offensive line.
Chandler Jones? Belichick opted to move him for a second-round pick rather than pay market value for a pass rusher he didn’t value as highly as the rest of the league.
Lawyer Milloy? Vince Wilfork? Ty Law? (long exhale) … Tom Brady? Belichick chose to move on from each before the end of their careers despite legendary production as Patriots. In some cases, beginning a new chapter worked out. In others it did not. Belichick closed his book on these beloved veterans and moved on nonetheless.
Thus, it makes sense that Robert Kraft, a franchise owner heavily invested in that Patriot Way, would feel the same. Belichick is no longer the roster builder he once was. He may still be a hell of a coach, but his inability to identify talent has made it nearly impossible to tell.
Belichick still carries value. He’s an asset thanks to that glorious past, and one an impulsive team owner — say, someone running the Carolina Panthers who recently dealt his top wide receiver, two first round picks and two second round picks for the chance to draft a quarterback he may or may not actually like — could be willing to swing a deal just for the right to pay for that prestige.
So if Kraft is leaning heavily on his longtime head coach to retire or otherwise move on, it seems a certainty Belichick understands the decision. If it’s a transition that can bring back draft assets via trade — just like the one that brought Belichick to Foxborough in the first place — and set up a new era of Patriots football while shutting the door on an old one, that’s even better.
Quietly ending Belichick’s reign may seem harsh given his history. But if that’s the move New England is going to make, it’s one Bill Belichick can accept — and maybe even approve.