Lily Gladstone dethrones Emma Stone as Oscar Experts’ front-runner for Best Actress

It’s been a good couple of weeks for both Emma Stone (“Poor Things”) and Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) on the awards circuit. Both films cleaned up in the Golden Globe nominations, both picked up major critics’ prizes — Stone took Best Lead Performance from the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, Gladstone was awarded Best Actress by the New York Film Critics Circle — but according to the Expert journalists we’ve surveyed from major media outlets, the race has shifted in Gladstone’s favor. Scroll down to see the graph illustrating the Experts’ predictions. Click on that graph for the Experts’ takes on other races.

As of this writing 12 out of 24 Experts are forecasting a victory for Gladstone’s performance as an Osage woman whose family and neighbors are targeted by opportunistic white settlers who want their land and money. It’s a relatively subtle performance where academy voters often prefer more flamboyant expressions like Stone’s brashness and offbeat physicality as a woman resurrected in “Poor Things,” but quieter performances have overtaken showier roles before: consider Helen Mirren‘s stiff upper lip in “The Queen” or Frances McDormand‘s stoic dignity in “Nomadland.” And it’s not just the New York critics who have backed Gladstone; so have Boston journos and the National Board of Review.

Stone still has seven Experts backing her for the win, though, and when you combine the forecasts of all of the thousands of Gold Derby users who have placed their bets here in our predictions center, Stone still has the overall lead. But she’s not a lock by any stretch of the imagination. Gladstone is coming on strong.

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