Patriots-Chiefs Betting Preview: Trends, Prop, Pick For Week 15

The vibes are strange for the New England Patriots heading into this Sunday’s matchup against the Kansas Chiefs; it’s the strange consequence of “Thursday Night Football” and optimism.

Before Week 14, Bailey Zappe wasn’t much of an upgrade over Mac Jones, and his poor play in Germany in Week 10 seemed to validate Bill Belichick’s reluctance to bench Jones for most of the season.

But Zappe shocked a national audience on “Thursday Night Football” last week and helped the Patriots beat the Pittsburgh Steelers. The second-year quarterback’s production largely came in the first half as New England laid an egg but still hung out to win the game.

However, the first-half performance was enough to convince some members of local media and fans that this was the Patriots’ potential all along. If only Belichick had benched Jones sooner, then New England would have had a chance to make the postseason.

That takeaway highlights why the NFL is the top sport in the United States: People love one-game sample sizes and more specifically fall in the trap of small sample sizes. Pittsburgh was a fraudulent 7-5 team heading into Week 14, and regression would come its way. It happened on a night when Mitchell Trubisky showed why he’s probably best served as a Whole Foods cashier and when Alex Highsmith and T.J. Watt battled injuries.

Jones’ mental state likely is fractured because of his struggles this season, and Zappe was able to step in because he quite literally has nothing to lose. New England likely will move on from its quarterback group, and if Zappe does stay on, it’s to be another arm for training camp and preseason.

That attitude is why the vibes in New England aren’t that bleak against the Chiefs, who melted down last week, which led to controversy over something that was completely their fault. To their credit, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes owned up to their mistakes, and they correctly wanted to move on and forget Week 14 ever happened — the FOX broadcast will most definitely bring up Kadarius Toney’s offsides call and likely will come equipped with special graphics.

But Kansas City’s vibes are all over the place. It has the pedigree of a defending Super Bowl champion, but the offense has been out of its groove due to a lack of cohesion in the wide receiver corps. Travis Kelce’s age seems to have caught up to him — for context, he’s the same age as Rob Gronkowski, who has been out of the league for two years.

There are rumblings that the Patriots might not get run out of Gillette Stadium this Sunday, and for fans who want New England to continue tanking, just remember, players don’t tank.

Here’s all you need to know about Sunday’s Patriots-Chiefs matchup from a betting perspective. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and NESN Bets consensus data.

(-8.5) Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots
Total: 37
When: Sunday, Dec. 17 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Gillette Stadium; Foxboro, Mass.

BETTING TRENDS TO KNOW
If the Chiefs close as an 8.5 or greater favorite, it would be the largest underdog spread for the Patriots at home since 2001, according to Action Network. The Patriots were 11.5-point dogs in Brady’s first start, which they beat the Indianapolis Colts outright. New England lost by seven to the St. Louis Rams in 2001 as 8.5-point underdogs. And the Patriots beat the Buffalo Bills in Week 7 this season as 7.5-point underdogs. Kansas City is 0-5 against the spread when allowing 20 or more points but 7-1 ATS when allowing 20 points or fewer — the Patriots average 13 points per game. The Chiefs are 12-1 to the under in the second half and fourth quarter this season. Patrick Mahomes is 2-0 ATS after a loss, and the Chiefs average 42.5 points per game in those matchups. Belichick is 1-3 ATS against Mahomes and 4-7 ATS against Andy Reid.

PATRIOTS PROP TO CONSIDER
Bailey Zappe under 188.5 passing yards (-114) — New England is coming off a mini-bye, but this feels like a letdown spot for Zappe. The second half of last week’s game is what we’ve mostly seen from the 24-year-old throughout his Patriots tenure. Kansas City’s defense still is among the best in the NFL. Its pass defense ranks fourth in dropback EPA and second in dropback success rate. L’Jarius Sneed should shut down whoever New England’s No. 1 receiver will be, and Trent McDuffie should find opportunities against a weak offensive line.

CHIEFS PROP TO CONSIDER
Rashee Rice over 56.5 receiving yards (-114) — The rookie wide receiver is one of the few pass-catchers not named Kelce that Mahomes trusts. Rice has a limited route tree with a 4.9 average depth of target heading into Week 15, but his role is increasing, and he should find opportunities even against a stout Patriots defense.

PICK: Chiefs -8.5 (-105)
Despite the preamble, we’re going to stick with fading the Patriots, and if Zappe covers or wins, that’s a nice addition to his résumé. The market still respects Kansas City and putting your faith in Mahomes isn’t always a bad bet. The Chiefs have a relatively easy schedule ahead with Las Vegas Raiders, Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Chargers after Week 15 — all of those teams fielding a backup quarterback — so a bet on over 11.5 wins at plus money isn’t a bad one and could change if the Chiefs pull out a win over the Patriots on Sunday.