Broncos vs. Lions Showdown: Scoring High in Motor City
The Denver Broncos‘ revamped offense is primed for success against the Detroit Lions‘ defense. This optimism stems from the Broncos’ unique offensive strategy: they throw the ball at the highest rate behind the line of scrimmage and rank No. 2 in launching 20-plus yard downfield passes. This dual-threat approach poses a significant challenge for the Lions, who have notably struggled against both play styles.
Diving into the numbers, the Lions rank No. 32 in Expected Points Added per attempt, success rate, and yards per attempt against running back passes. This statistic is particularly relevant given the Broncos’ propensity for targeting running backs in their short-pass game, a strategy they execute more than any other team in the league.
Furthermore, regarding deep passes, the Lions’ post-Week 9 performance is concerning. They rank No. 32 in EPA per attempt and 29th in success rate for passes thrown 15-plus yards down the field. Their yards per attempt in these situations are also notably poor.
However, despite the Broncos’ effective movement downfield, they face a challenge: scoring in the red zone. Since their Week 7 resurgence, they’ve made the third most trips into the red zone but have the third-worst touchdown rate. While they excel at advancing the ball, converting these opportunities into touchdowns has been a struggle. Fortunately, they’re up against the Lions’ red zone defense, which is the worst in the NFL in preventing red zone touchdowns.
Given these dynamics, the matchup heavily favors the Broncos in scoring potential. However, the game’s outcome might not be straightforward. The Broncos are expected to be playing catch-up, suggesting a high-scoring affair. The prediction is that the game will exceed 47.5 points, driven by an early lead from the Lions and a strong response from the Broncos.
The Broncos’ offensive strengths aligned against the Lions’ defensive weaknesses suggest a high-scoring game is on the horizon.
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