NFL Week 15 playoff and elimination scenarios
Multiple NFC teams, and even one AFC team, can clinch this weekend
For my money, we have reached the best part of the NFL season.
That point in time when we start getting Saturday regular season games.
That’s when you know that the holidays — and playoff football — are just around the corner. Three NFL games are on the slate for this weekend, including a game between the Detroit Lions and the Denver Broncos that has major playoff implications.
Imagine saying that back in August.
Here are the playoff and elimination scenarios for Week 15 of the NFL season, along with information on each game involved. To keep things relatively simple, on the elimination side of things we are focusing purely on playoff elimination, not elimination from division titles or first-overall seeding.
We will start in the NFC, which has multiple playoff-clinching scenarios. Who are the teams that can join the San Francisco 49ers this weekend?
There are a few.
NFC
Playoff-clinching scenarios
Things seem bleak right now in Philadelphia, as the Eagles enter Week 15 sitting at 10-3, tied with the Dallas Cowboys atop the NFC East, but in the fifth spot at the moment due to current tiebreakers.
Still, the Eagles can clinch a postseason spot this weekend. The easiest way? A win or a tie against the Seattle Seahawks on Monday Night Football.
However, there are ways the Eagles can get in that do not involve that game, meaning Philadelphia might already know they have clinched a spot before kickoff Monday night. Here are the ways:
- A Vikings loss or tie against Cincinnati, plus a Falcons loss or tie against Carolina, plus a Rams loss or tie against Washington, OR
- A Vikings loss or tie, a Falcons loss or tie, a 49ers win or tie against Arizona, and a Detroit win, OR
- A Vikings loss or tie, a Buccaneers loss against Green Bay, and a Rams loss or tie, OR
- A Vikings loss or tie, a Buccaneers loss, a 49ers win or tie, and a Lions win, OR
- A Packers loss, a Falcons loss or tie, and a Rams loss or tie, OR
- A Packers loss, a Falcons loss or tie, a 49ers win or tie, and a Lions win
There are also two scenarios where a Packers tie against Tampa Bay can get the Eagles in, before they play Monday night. If the Packers and Buccaneers tie in the Sunday early slate, the Eagles will clinch if:
- The Rams lose or tie, OR
- The 49ers win or tie, and the Lions win Saturday night
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are in a similar boat as their rivals in the East. A win or tie on Sunday against the Buffalo Bills, and Dallas is in.
However, they can also get in based on results in other games, independent of their game against Buffalo. Here’s how:
- A Buccaneers loss, a Lions win or tie, and a 49ers win or tie, OR
- A Buccaneers loss, a Lions win or tie, and a Rams loss or tie, OR
- A Buccaneers loss, a Vikings loss or tie, and a Lions win or tie, OR
- A Buccaneers loss, a Vikings loss or tie, and a Rams loss or tie, OR
- A Buccaneers loss, a Vikings loss or tie, and a Seahawks loss or tie against Philadelphia
They can also clinch if the Buccaneers end up tying the Packers, provided:
- The Lions also win or tie, OR
- The Rams also lose or tie, OR
- The Seahawks also lose or tie
Dallas might also want to keep an eye on the Falcons/Panthers game, as that game opens up a few pathways to the playoffs for the Cowboys:
- A Falcons loss or tie, a Packers loss, and a Lions win or tie, OR
- A Falcons loss or tie, a Packers loss, and a Rams loss or tie, OR
- A Falcons loss or tie, a Packers loss, and a Seahawks loss or tie
Dallas can also clinch if:
- The Seahawks lose or tie and the Rams lose or tie
There is also a scenario where a Seahawks loss or tie, a Vikings loss, and A WHOLE BUNCH OF OTHER TEAMS WIN and the Cowboys get in based on a strength of schedule tie-breaker. You can see that scenario at NFL Playoff Scenarios, which is an invaluable resource this time of year.
Detroit Lions
The Lions have not seen the playoffs since 2016. But they can clinch a spot this weekend. We can start with the path to the playoffs for Detroit if the beat the Broncos on Saturday night. If Detroit beats Denver, here is what else they would need:
- A Seahawks loss or tie and a Packers loss or tie, OR
- A Seahawks loss or tie and a Vikings loss or tie, OR
- A Seahawks loss or tie and a Rams loss or tie, OR
- A Rams loss or tie, a Buccaneers loss, and a Vikings loss or tie, OR
- A Rams loss or tie, a Packers loss, and a Falcons loss or tie, OR
- A Rams loss or tie and a Packers tie
There are a few scenarios where Detroit ties Denver, but still gets in. The three cleanest? A Detroit-Denver tie plus:
- A Buccaneers loss, a Seahawks loss, and a Rams loss, OR
- A Falcons loss, a Seahawks loss, and a Rams loss, OR
- A Packers loss, a Seahawks loss, and a Rams loss
San Francisco 49ers
While the 49ers have already clinched a playoff spot, it is worth mentioning that San Francisco can lock up the division with a win or tie against Arizona, or a Rams loss or tie against the Commanders.
Now catch your breath, and we will walk through some elimination scenarios.
Elimination scenarios
And now, some bad news.
Again, to keep things simple we are focused purely on playoff elimination scenarios. There are some teams (Green Bay and Los Angeles) that can be eliminated from winning their divisions this week.
Two teams are facing elimination from playoff contention this week.
There are two ways the Commanders can be eliminated this week. The most straight-forward? A loss to the Rams. That knocks Washington out.
The other? A tie against the Rams. If that game ends in a tie, then a Packers win or tie, PLUS a Bears win against Cleveland, PLUS a Falcons win, PLUS a Packers win, AND a Saints win against the Giants, and the Commanders are out.
The Cardinals have been on the brink already, and managed to survive during their bye week in Week 14. But they are still facing elimination right now. A loss to the 49ers, and the Cardinals are out.
Arizona can also be eliminated if they tie San Francisco. Should that game end in a tie, the following scenarios knock them out of the playoffs:
- A Rams win or tie, OR
- A Packers win, OR
- A Buccaneers win, OR
- A Falcons win or tie, OR
- A Bears win or tie, OR
- A Seahawks win, OR
- A Giants win
There are also multiple scenarios where the Cardinals are eliminated regardless of what happens against San Francisco. The two cleanest?
- A Rams win and a Vikings win or tie, OR
- A Rams win and a Packers win or tie
There are other scenarios where the Cardinals are eliminated regardless of their result against San Francisco, such as a Rams win, a Saints win or tie, a Bears win, and a Falcons win or tie. To see the full list visit NFL Playoff Scenarios.
As you can see, the Cardinals are really on the brink.
Eliminated teams
With their loss last week, the Carolina Panthers were the first team eliminated from playoff contention.
AFC
Playoff-clinching scenarios
We have our first AFC playoff-clinching scenario of the 2023 NFL season.
The Ravens can become the first team to clinch a playoff spot in the AFC this weekend. There are nine different ways they can, all of which start with a win Sunday night against the Jacksonville Jaguars. A win against the Jaguars gets Baltimore in if:
- The Steelers lose or tie against the Colts Saturday and the Bills lose or tie to Dallas, OR
- The Steelers lose or tie and the Broncos lose or tie, OR
- The Steelers tie and the Browns lose or tie, OR
- The Steelers tie and the Texans lose or tie, OR
- The Bills lose or tie and the Broncos lose or tie, OR
- The Browns lose or tie and the Broncos lose or tie, OR
- The Texans lose or tie and the Bills lose or tie, OR
- The Texans lose or tie, and the Broncos lose or tie
There are also 16 different scenarios where the Ravens get in, even with a tie against Jacksonville. You can see those here.
Elimination scenarios
As noted above, we are focusing on straight playoff elimination, and not on seeding. Again, if you want to dive into more scenarios we highly recommend NFL Playoff Scenarios. There you can learn how the Titans, Steelers, Chargers, Raiders, and Bengals can be eliminated in their respective divisions, as well as how numerous teams can be eliminated from the top-overall seed.
For both the Jets and the Titans, there are elimination scenarios listed below which require a Raiders win. Las Vegas won in dominant fashion Thursday night.
Despite Zach Wilson leading the Jets to a win over Houston last week — and securing AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors — the Jets are on the brink of elimination. A loss to the Dolphins would inch them closer, but they are not eliminated simply with a loss. Other results are still necessary to knock them out.
A loss to Miami, coupled with these scenarios, eliminates the Jets:
- A Bills win against Dallas and a Colts win against the Steelers, OR
- A Bills win and a Steelers win, OR
- A Bills win and a Texans win or tie against Tennessee, OR
- A Bills win and a Bengals win or tie against the Vikings, OR
- A Colts win, a Bengals win, and a Texans win or tie, OR
- A Browns win or tie, a Colts win, and a Bengals win, OR
- A Browns win or tie, a Steelers win, and a Texans win, OR
- A Browns win or tie, a Steelers win, a Texans win, a Broncos win, or a Raiders win, OR
- A Browns win or tie, a Steelers tie, a Bengals win or tie, and a Texans win or tie, OR
- A Browns win or tie, a Steelers tie, a Bengals win or tie, a Broncos win, and a Raiders in, OR
- A Steelers tie, a Texans win or tie, a Broncos win, and a Raiders win
The Titans can also be eliminated from playoff contention outright, in addition to being eliminated from AFC South title contention. Focusing on pure outright elimination, here is how the Titans can start making vacation plans. The first step is a loss to the Texans. Then, the following additional results would knock them out:
- A Colts win, OR
- A Steelers win, OR
- A Bengals loss or tie, OR
- A Denver win and a Raiders win
Eliminated teams
With the Bengals win over the Colts last week, the Patriots became the first AFC team eliminated from the playoffs