Best Picture surprise in the making? Watch out for ‘The Holdovers’
“The Holdovers” has a power in this year’s Oscars race that not many other films do. It’s sweet. “Oppenheimer” and “Killers of the Flower Moon” are two historical epics, “Barbie” and “Poor Things” are two colorful extravaganzas, and “Past Lives,” “Maestro,” “All of Us Strangers” are emotionally devastating. But none of them hold the same feel-good sweetness that “The Holdovers” does, which makes Alexander Payne’s movie a force to be reckoned with.
The Focus Features movie follows Paul Giamatti as a teacher who has to look after students who are forced to remain behind on campus during Christmas. Giamatti’s gruff teacher slowly has his ice-cold exterior melted by his bond with Dominic Sessa‘s student while Da’Vine Joy Randolph adds real heart and warmth to proceedings as the school’s cook. It is this sweetness that could prove to be the film’s greatest asset and makes it a real threat in the Best Picture, particularly in a preferential voting system. “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” may get lots of number one votes but they’ll also be placed much further down the list by other voters. “The Holdovers,” meanwhile, is likely to rank in the top four or five of pretty much all voters’ ballots as it’s just a very likeable film.
“Oppenheimer” and “Killers of the Flower Moon” are the two juggernauts duking it at for the top spot on our Oscar odds chart for Best Picture. Christopher Nolan and Martin Scorsese have helmed fact-based films that we fully expect to be among the leading contenders at the Academy Awards. But these two epic films face a serious challenger in Alexander Payne‘s intimate drama “The Holdovers.
This Focus Features release is a showcase for Paul Giamatti, who reunites with Payne after their acclaimed collaboration on “Sideways.” He plays a teacher forced to look after stay-over students at a school during Christmastime. Dominic Sessa shines in breakout role as the most difficult of these students while Da’Vine Joy Randolph delivers a lovely, touching performance as the school’s cook. “The Holdovers” received rave reviews and merits a whopping 96% on Rotten Tomatoes, a score that is only bettered by one other film: Celine Song‘s “Past Lives.”
We also know that academy voters adore feel-good films and “The Holdovers” is absolutely that. “Oppenheimer,” the current Best Picture favorite, is a huge, technical achievement but “The Holdovers” has that heart that could lure voters to its side much as “Shakespeare in Love” did over “Saving Private Ryan” back in 1999. “Green Book” also triumphed in 2019 due to a similar arc (two characters who start off disliking each other slowly grow closer).
Payne’s pictures are always embraced by academy voters. “Sideways” reaped five bids in 2005 including nominations for Best Picture and Best Director for Payne. The movie won Best Adapted Screenplay for Payne and co-writer Jim Taylor. The same writing duo had contended for “Election” in 2000. In 2003, “About Schmidt” was nominated for Best Actor (Jack Nicholson) and Best Supporting Actress (Kathy Bates). Payne won Best Adapted Screenplay again in 2012 with Nat Faxon and Jim Rash for “The Descendants,” which was also nominated for four other awards including Picture and Director for Payne. And “Nebraska” landed six Oscar nominations in 2014, again including Picture and Director for Payne.
With this return to form after the 2017 misfire “Downsizing,” Oscar voters may reward Payne not just with a writing win or a directing nomination, but with the top prize too.
When looking at a potential Best Picture winner, it’s always good to theorize about the other races in which it could prevail. While some films win Best Picture without much else, usually, a movie needs to win at least one or two other major categories. Even “Spotlight,” which only won two Oscars in total, paired its Best Picture victory with one for Original Screenplay.
Indeed, a writing win is a key category for potential Best Picture winners with eight of the last 10 Best Picture winners also reigning victorious in a writing category. The two that didn’t win a writing award were 2018 champ “The Shape of Water” and 2021 winner “Nomadland.” That is good news for “The Holdovers” as we are predicting it to win Best Original Screenplay. We also predict that the film will win Best Supporting Actress for Randolph.
Winning a writing award, a supporting acting category, and Best Picture is a trio of wins that happens a lot. Five of the last 10 winners have taken home those three awards: “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” “CODA,” “Green Book,” “Moonlight,” and “12 Years a Slave.” The fact that we predict “The Holdovers” will win Original Screenplay and Supporting Actress, then, is a big plus for the film’s Best Picture chances.
And while “Oppenheimer” may win a slew of Oscars including Best Director that doesn’t always translate into a Best Picture victory. In 2016, “Mad Max: Fury Road” won the most Oscars (six) while “The Revenant” won Best Director for Alejandro G. Iñárritu — yet “Spotlight” took home Best Picture. And in 2017, “La La Land” won the most Oscars (six again) and took home Best Director for Damien Chazelle — but “Moonlight” won Best Picture. “Killers of the Flower Moon” and “Oppenheimer” should watch out.
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