How Dramatic Win Over Broncos Damaged Patriots’ Draft Outlook

The Patriots should feel good about their Sunday night win over the Denver Broncos. It’s been a rough season in New England, and scoring a last-second road victory against a playoff-hopeful opponent on Christmas Eve should lift everyone’s spirits.

But in the long run, the 26-23 triumph might hurt the franchise.

The Patriots entered the weekend in control of the No. 2 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft but dropped to the No. 4 spot after beating the Broncos. The Arizona Cardinals and Washington Commanders both won Sunday and now rank ahead of New England in the draft order.

Here’s the updated top 10 with three games left on the Week 16 slate:

(Note: Strength of schedule is the first draft-order tiebreaker, with the team with the lower opponents’ winning percentage getting the higher pick.)

1. Chicago Bears, via 2-13 Carolina Panthers (.522 SOS)
2. Arizona Cardinals, 3-12 (.564 SOS)
3. Washington Commanders, 4-11 (.520 SOS)
4. New England Patriots, 4-11 (.522 SOS)
5. Tennessee Titans, 5-10 (.524 SOS)
6. Los Angeles Chargers, 5-10 (.524 SOS)
7. New York Giants, 5-9 (.510 SOS)
8. Chicago Bears, 6-9 (.466 SOS)
9. New York Jets, 6-9 (.514 SOS)
10. Las Vegas Raiders, 6-8 (.492 SOS)

There still is a lot that can happen over the final two weeks, but here are some important things to know:

— If the Patriots lose one of their final two games (at Buffalo Bills; home vs. Jets), they’re guaranteed a top-seven pick.

— New England is guaranteed a top-four selection if it loses out.

— The Patriots essentially are guaranteed to win a tiebreaker over the Cardinals. But they now need at least one win from Arizona (at Philadelphia Eagles; vs. Seattle Seahawks) to still have a chance for the No. 2 pick.

— The Patriots and Commanders are neck-and-neck in strength of schedule. With Washington finishing against the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys, New England might need to lose to the Jets in the season finale to have a chance for a top-three pick.

— The Panthers, who will send their first-round pick to the Bears, will finish with games against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Patriots fans probably can kiss the No. 1 pick goodbye.

— New England can’t finish any lower than the 10th pick.

So, yeah, the road to a top-two pick — and the chance of drafting a new franchise quarterback — just got much more treacherous. And the Patriots are battling with a franchise in the Commanders that also could be looking to draft a new QB. Worse yet, if New England picks up another win, it could fall behind two more QB-needy teams in the Titans and Giants.

It’s not over, though — not by a longshot. And the Bears are the only team that has an insurmountable SOS edge over the Patriots.

But make no mistake: Beating the Broncos put a serious dent in New England’s draft outlook. The Patriots basically are in must-lose mode for the rest of the season.