Fight Picks: Naoya Inoue vs. Marlon Tapales
On Tuesday, WBC/WBO junior featherweight titlist Naoya Inoue will face IBF/WBA counterpart Marlon Tapales in a 12-round contest at the Ariake Arena in Tokyo, Japan.
The two will meet to decide who will claim the vacant Ring Magazine belt and become the undisputed champion at 122 pounds.
Inoue, The Ring’s No. 2 pound-for-pound fighter, has devoured all put before him en route to claiming world titles at 108, 115, 118 and 122 pounds. The big-punching Japanese “Monster” has confirmed his moniker in demolishing the likes of Omar Narvaez (KO 2), Jamie McDonnell (TKO 1), Juan Carlos Payano (KO 1) and Emmanuel Rodriguez (KO 2). However, it’s his pair of triumphs over four-weight world champion Nonito Donaire that provided Inoue with considerable acclaim. He edged Donaire (UD 12) in an instant classic that was later named 2019 Fight of the Year by The Ring, then stopped him in the second round of their rematch.
Inoue became the undisputed bantamweight champion when he dominated and stopped Paul Butler in 11 one-sided rounds. With nothing left to conquer at 118, Inoue moved up in weight and looked just as impressive as ever bludgeoning Stephen Fulton (TKO 8), the consensus No. 1-rated junior featherweight, to add the WBC and WBO belts to his growing list of accolades.
Tapales, The Ring’s No. 2-rated junior featherweight, worked his way up through the ranks in the Philippines before narrowly losing to David Sanchez (MD 12) in Mexico in 2013. In late 2015, he upset the previously unbeaten Shohei Omari (TKO 2) in a WBO bantamweight title eliminator in Japan. He then headed to Thailand and twice got off the canvas to stop Pungluang Sor Singyu (TKO 11) to pick up the belt. In his first defense, Tapales went back to Japan to face Omari in a rematch. Although he missed weight and was stripped of his title, he was able to stop Omari in the 11th round.
Over a year of inactivity followed, but Tapales returned with three wins before losing to Ryosuke Iwasa (TKO 11) in an IBF 122-pound title eliminator. He bounced back with three more wins, including an impressive stoppage over Hiroaki Teshigawara (TKO 2) in an IBF eliminator. He then met Murodjon Akhmadaliev in April 2023 for the IBF and WBA titles and surprised the defending champion by winning a 12-round split decision.
Inoue (25-0, 22 knockouts) is at the peak of his powers. He appears to be the more powerful man as well as the better boxer. Might this lead to overconfidence? It’s difficult to see what Tapales (37-3, 19 KOs) can do to beat Inoue. Perhaps he can show toughness, make it into a dogfight and hope to land something that can do some damage? While Inoue is expected to not just win but dominate, can he possibly be as awe-inspiring as he was against Fulton? Tapales has wanted this fight since he upset Akhmadaliev earlier this year. Do he and his team see a weakness in Inoue’s armor?
To the panel of boxing experts we polled, the answers are clear. For them, it’s not a question of “what” happens, but “when.”
Online gambling group William Hill lists Inoue as a 1/20 (-2000) favorite, while Tapales is priced at 7/1 (+700); the draw is 25/1 (+2500). The fight will be broadcast on ESPN+ beginning at 3 a.m. ET/midnight PT and on Sky Sports at 10 a.m.
Here’s how the experts see it:
THE RING
ANSON WAINWRIGHT: INOUE TKO 9
“Inoue reminded us of how special he is last time out when he destroyed Stephen Fulton. He showed he’s as good as ever and his power has carried to 122 pounds. Tapales is a solid 15-year veteran who has won world titles in two weight classes, but solid won’t cut it here. I expect his toughness to see him go rounds, but Inoue is far too good and will break his Filipino opponent down and get the stoppage in around nine rounds.”
LEE GROVES: INOUE TKO 7
“As far as nicknames go, one can’t get much better than ‘The Monster’ (Inoue) versus ‘The Nightmare’ (Tapales), but Inoue’s sublime all-around skills and heavy hands are a combination that will prove to be far too much for Tapales, whose three career losses include two by KO. The guess is that Inoue will turn in a performance that will garner him many votes for 2023 Fighter of the Year, and he’ll do it at the expense of a nominee for ‘Upset of the Year’ thanks to Tapales’ split decision win over Murodjon Akhmadaliev in April.”
Inoue’s breathtaking combo of power and skills was on full display against Stephen Fulton. (Photo by Naoki Fukuda)
DIEGO MORILLA: INOUE KO 4
“At this point of his career, Inoue is the instant favorite against any fighter not named Godzilla — or God, for that matter. As shocking as it was to see him in trouble against Donaire [in their first fight], I believe that shock will be erased in due time when we reflect on the amazing talent that Nonito displayed in the ring throughout his illustrious career. But as he grows bigger and stronger, Inoue is simply more and more powerful and looks more and more awesome with every fight. We should enjoy him while we can.“
MARTY MULCAHEY: INOUE TKO
“I believe Naoya Inoue is the most complete boxer in the world, and the best since Ricardo Lopez and Roy Jones roamed our rings. Truly lives up to the nickname of ‘Monster,’ regardless of how many weight classes he wants to participate in. Does Marlon Tapales have a chance? Not really. I can’t see a sometimes-reckless Tapales executing a perfect game plan over 12 rounds or having the power to land an out-of-nowhere knockout. It sounds trite, but only Inoue can beat himself right now, in my opinion. This may even be the start of ‘post prime’ Inoue (at age 30), but this version will still dominate and stop Tapales in the middle rounds to become the undisputed champion in yet another weight class!“
NORM FRAUENHEIM: INOUE TKO 8
“It’s hard to imagine that Marlon Tapales has much of a chance at stopping Inoue at home in Japan, or anywhere else, for that matter. The Filipino is quick. Hell have to be against the tireless Inoue. He’s tough. He’ll have to be to endure Inoue’s power. Mostly, Inoue has momentum, enough of it to solidify his bid for Fighter of the Year. He stopped Stephen Fulton in July. Look for an Inoue encore against Tapales in another pound-for-pound performance.”
BOXING INSIDERS
DUKE MCKENZIE (TV ANALYST/FORMER THREE-DIVISION TITLEHOLDER): INOUE KO
“There’s a saying in boxing which goes, ‘When you’re on a roll, get out the way.’ Inoue ‘The Monster’ looks to add yet more belts to his collection. I cannot see how Tapales can beat Inoue, who at this moment in time looks to be the complete box fighter. Tapales really goes into this fight with only one chance of victory: a punchers chance. Forget the fact that he is a southpaw. He is simply too easy to hit and doesn’t fight at a particularly hard pace. As we know if Inoue catches you, it’s game over, I’m sure I will not be the only one that predicts a late KO in favor of Inoue, seven to nine rounds.”
Tapales notched an impressive upset in beating Akhmadaliev. (Photo by Jhay Oh Otamias)
VADIM KORNILOV (MANAGER): INOUE TKO
“Inoue is the favorite in this fight. He is at a different level in my opinion. Inoue victory by stoppage.”
JOLENE MIZZONE (MANAGER): INOUE TKO 8
“I just think that Inoue is a better all-around fighter then Tapales. I think Inoue’s relentless style is going to be too much for Tapales and don’t think it will go past eight rounds.”
CAMILLE ESTEPHAN (PROMOTER, EYE OF THE TIGER): INOUE TKO
“I don’t know if Tapales will carry his power to this weight class; he would have to be absolutely perfect all night to have a chance to beat Inoue. Inoue, on the other hand, has a devastatingly efficient jab and he throws great combinations that are superbly accurate and powerful. I see Inoue winning by dominant fashion with a late stoppage win.”
TOM GRAY (FORMER MANAGING EDITOR FOR THE RING): INOUE TKO 2
“Styles make fights. Tapales is a quality operator, but he likes to mix it up and it’s too late to change him. Inoue will come out blazing and will be looking to make a statement. He’s a much better fighter than Tapales. I think this one ends in a hurry.”
JOE ROTONDA (MATCHMAKER, MAIN EVENTS): INOUE TKO
“I like this fight a lot. Marlon Tapales isn’t the most well-known fighter, nor is he the biggest threat that Inoue has faced thus far. However, he is always game and is coming off of a major win over the former champ, Murodjon Akhmadaliev. On the other hand, Inoue has proven thus far to be an unstoppable force and is also coming off of a win in which a number of people in the industry thought he would have problems with in Stephen Fulton. I think what we have seen so far is that Inoue has no issue adjusting to opposing styles, and I think this won’t be any different. Inoue’s power and relentless attack will be the difference here, and I think we get an early stoppage win for ‘The Monster.'”
Inoue capped 2022 with an 11th-round TKO of Paul Butler that crowned him undisputed bantamweight champ. (Photo by Naoki Fukuda)
ROBERT DIAZ (MATCHMAKER): INOUE TKO
“Inoue vs. Tapales is a good fight. Tapales is strong and will come to win and unify titles, but once again Inoue will continue to surprise the world of boxing with his talent, speed, power and accuracy. The kid is something special, a once-in-a-lifetime kind of fighter. Inoue will keep control of the fight with speed and using distance to keep Tapales two steps behind. It won’t be a short night, but I do see a breakdown and the corner stopping the fight in eight to 10 rounds. Inoue is a monster!“
RICH MAROTTA (COMMENTATOR): INOUE TKO
“I know it sounds ridiculous, but I think at the age of 30, Naoya Inoue is still on the ascendancy. He is an absolute wrecking machine and it will take someone very special to beat him. His opponent, Tapales, is a fine champion with determination, but special? No. Inoue may start this fight a little more cautious than usual, but he will figure out his opponent within a few rounds and take him out somewhere between rounds 6-8.”
TONY SIMS (TRAINER): INOUE TKO 4
“Tapales is a short, rugged southpaw and he’s also got a decent boxing brain, but against Inoue he’s fighting a machine and a great technician whose timing is so accurate and someone who can KO you with either hand. I think Inoue will get the job done within four rounds.”
The fact that some saw weakness in Inoue during his first fight against Nonito Donaire only seemed to make him fiercer in the rematch. (Photo by Naoki Fukuda)
RUDY HERNANDEZ (TRAINER): INOUE TKO 8
“Tapales has improved a bit since the lost to Iwasa. But I don’t see it being enough to beat Inoue, who in my opinion is the No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in the world. Tapales has good skills and can be competitive until Inoue times him and takes him out within eight rounds. There’s a reason why he’s earned the name ‘The Monster.'”
ALEX STEEDMAN (COMMENTATOR): INOUE KO
“Given their records, tea breaks and toilet visits should be banned during the Inoue and Tapales fight. Marlon Tapales went the distance for the first time in nine years recently, while Inoue has stopped all but three of his opponents. I expect Inoue to do it again, emphatically. Tapales does the shoulder-body angle defense better than most, but that along with a low right hand is simply a recipe for disaster against a boxing surgeon like Inoue. ‘The Monster’ can finish fights early or late, with the left hook he used against Jason Maloney likely to play a starring role here. Inoue will win this looking like he’s in a different league again.”
CHRIS ALGIERI (COMMENTATOR/FORMER WORLD CHAMPION): INOUE TKO 9
“I was at the Tapales-Akmahdaliev fight and I called the Inoue-Donare II fight. Inoue is top three on almost anyone’s pound-for-pound lists, and for good reason. ‘The Monster’ is special. That being said, this is a real fight. Tapales is very tricky and strong, fighting out of a crouch position as well as being southpaw. I believe Tapales’ strength and awkward/unorthodox style is going to make this interesting early. Ultimately, once Inoue finds his rhythm and timing, I see Tapales succumbing to the power and precision in a valiant TKO loss. Inoue TKO 9.”
WAYNE MCCULLOUGH (TRAINER/FORMER WORLD CHAMPION): INOUE TKO 7
“All is on the line in this one where the winner will become the unified champion, so I think it’s going to be an explosive one. Tapales has great boxing skills behind his southpaw stance when he throws his long right jabs. Inoue is powerful and tries to get fights over quickly. Tapales will box early and win some rounds, but Inoue will start landing rights to the head of Tapales and turn things around. Inoue may be able to hurt Tapales to the body and finish him with a combo to the head to get TKO win around the seventh round.”
RAUL MARQUEZ (FORMER WORLD CHAMPION/COMMENTATOR): INOUE KO 5
“Inoue is a monster, has been busier and has momentum going for him. No way he loses in Japan. Inoue by KO, round 5.”
Final Tally: Inoue by knockout, 19-0
The post Fight Picks: Naoya Inoue vs. Marlon Tapales appeared first on The Ring.