Warren Sharp Shares How the Dolphins Can Hang in Baltimore
This upcoming NFL game presents a fascinating tactical battle between the Miami Dolphins and the Baltimore Ravens, as analyzed by respected football strategist Warren Sharp.
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Dolphins vs. Ravens Odds at FanDuel
- Spread: Dolphins +3.5 (-120) | Ravens -3.5 (-102)
- Moneyline: Dolphins (+140) | Ravens (-166)
- Total: OVER 46.5 (-110) | UNDER 46.5 (-110)
Sharp offers a critical insight into the Dolphins’ approach against the Ravens: “Last week, the San Francisco 49ers blew a tremendous opportunity… because they were averaging 9.9 yards per carry on early-down runs in the first half of that game plus 0.50 EPA per attempt.” Despite this success on the ground, the 49ers chose to pass the ball on 62% of their early down plays, leading to costly interceptions.
For the Dolphins, Sharp sees a clear path to exploiting the Ravens’ defensive setup: “The Miami Dolphins need to take advantage of this weakness of the Baltimore Ravens… they absolutely love playing with light boxes.” The Ravens’ strategy of using the second-highest light box rate in the NFL on early downs makes them formidable against the pass but potentially vulnerable against the run.
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Sharp emphasizes the importance of the Dolphins’ ground game: “The Miami Dolphins are actually a good rushing offense… they need to come out and run the football a little bit more early on in this game.” Successful running plays can compel the Ravens to add defenders to the box, significantly weakening their pass defense. “Their pass defense plummets massively to number 30 in yards per attempt and number 24 in EPA per attempt when they are playing the pass, but have a heavy box,” Sharp explains.
For the Dolphins, the key to their strategy will be their health status: “They have to get their running backs healthy. They have to have better health from their offensive line as well.” Monitoring their final injury report is crucial for understanding their potential to execute this game plan.
This game hinges on the Dolphins’ ability to effectively run the ball early, forcing the Ravens to adjust their defensive strategy. This approach could open up passing opportunities for Miami and keep them competitive throughout the game. Bettors should consider the Dolphins’ offensive health and ability to execute this strategy when placing their bets.
Watch Warren Sharp’s NFL Week 17 Picks on SportsGrid’s YouTube Channel.