Alabama-Texas rematch in College Football Playoff forecast

Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

In mid-December, when I gave you all my bowl picks in confidence-pool form, I went big — no, huge — on Alabama to beat Michigan in the Rose Bowl and on Texas to beat Washington in the Sugar Bowl.

Now that Monday’s College Football Playoff semifinals are here, I’m not so sure. That’s what watching bowl games in 2023 — with player participation in constant flux and team motivation often in doubt — will do to a picker’s confidence.

But it’s a new year (hadn’t you heard?) and, with the stakes so high, there will be no participation and motivation issues on the Pasadena, Calif., and New Orleans fronts. It’s the college game at its zenith, though some would say that’s a lie as long as two-time defending national champion Georgia isn’t involved. In college football, we argue about everything.

Even as the No. 4 seed, Alabama (12-1) casts a uniquely imposing shadow among the final four teams. The Crimson Tide have won six straight playoff semifinal games, by an average margin of three touchdowns. Nick Saban has elevated his month-long process from the SEC title game until the playoff to an art form.

“There’s a lot of rat poison out there when you have success and have people talk about you in a positive way,” Saban said, “and you have to be able to manage that.”

For Jim Harbaugh of No. 1 Michigan (13-0), it’s the defining moment of a great career. He has coached a team to the Super Bowl and beaten Ohio State three straight times, but toppling Saban en route to a national championship at his alma mater would be even bigger — especially amid all the speculation about a possible return to the NFL.

Two more wins and Harbaugh (suspensions? What suspensions?) becomes the “it” coach on the planet. Wait, is he already?

“It’s not for me anymore,” Harbaugh said. “It’s for [everyone] we’re associated with.”

Michigan is a 1½-point favorite against Alabama, and either the Wolverines or the Tide would be favored in the title game even though Washington is 13-0 and Texas (12-1) won 34-24 in Tuscaloosa, Ala., in September. The second game of an ESPN doubleheader just doesn’t have quite the same hype, and the combatants just don’t have quite the same respect.

It shouldn’t be the case. The Huskies have been relentlessly clutch, winning seven of their last nine games by one-score margins and more than making up for a couple of clunkers by beating Oregon twice. The Longhorns have the top-ranked offense in the semis and a defensive front that’s reminiscent of recent Georgia units.

Anyone can point to the stars playing in the Rose Bowl, and there are a lot of them. But the quality in both games is there — from extreme talents to teams that could win the whole thing, of which there certainly are four. That hasn’t often been the case at playoff time.

But give me Alabama and give me Texas — still.

We can talk about the rematch later.