India Elections 2024 (Part I) – OpEd
Delivering growth and national pride, Modi is set to clock a third term (1) as PM of the most populous country of the world
He is Narendra Modi, Prime Minister to a nation of 1.4 billion Indians.
He has disappointed his worst critics by ensuring that his honeymoon with the 986.8 million voters continues for ten long years.
He is riding high on the nationalist sentiment aroused by the recent consecration of the Ram temple, catapulting India to the position of the fifth largest economy of the world with a GDP of $3.7 trillion, improved foreign ties, a sharp upswing in the forex reserves, an unprecedented global image, coupled with what is being seen as an overdrive to arrest some of the topmost politicians involved in cases of massive corruption.
Whether his critics like it or not, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party is all set to secure a clear majority in the ensuing general elections, paving the way for a comfortable third term.
Although top BJP leaders and their sympathizers are proclaiming that they will notch 400 plus seats, making it the most decisive and historical victory, I would think that the Southern and Eastern states will smother that sentiment. Going by what I have personally witnessed in my travel during the last forty five days, regional parties are going strong and BJP could fail to win many seats despite the humongous effort being made by Modi personally.
My reckoning is that the South (Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana), the entire Northeast that comprises eight states of that region, as well as West Bengal, Bihar, Maharashtra and Punjab will curtail the BJP’s race towards their desired number of 400. “Abki baar, chaar sau paar” is a slogan given by Modi to his party workers which essentially means that BJP and its allies (together called the National Democratic Alliance) cross the 400 seat number.
My analysis is that INDIA, a political alliance of the main opposition Congress and over two dozen regional parties, may be able to secure at best 150-175 seats. In July 2023, over two dozen opposition parties formed a coalition to challenge the ruling BJP in the upcoming general election. In just eight months after its birth, the opposition coalition which had tried to cleverly arouse popular sentiment by naming itself INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance), is in a state of complete flux.
On one hand is a weak opposition which is always blaming the voters saying they are misguided by the ruling party while they themselves are unable to hold their own flock together; and, on the other hand is an aggressive and formidable BJP which is in full control and enjoys financial prowess as well.
Furthermore, in a politically volatile atmosphere, the voter is intelligent enough to realize that the coalition is crumbling and the entire idea of a collective enterprise is a non-starter. Whether it is because of their own incompetence or due to the legal difficulties created by the ruling party, the truth is that INDIA has not been able to stop the stream of defections of its most important second rung leaders and is also facing a fund disadvantage.
In the last two elections, in 2014 and 2019, the BJP easily cleared the threshold of 272 of 543 seats in the lower house. In fact, 2019 had been a miraculous victory with BJP securing 303, its highest-ever seat total, whereas the Congress clocked a paltry 52.
For the common middle class voter, Modi has done exceedingly well in driving India’s economy from the tenth largest to the fifth largest in the world. Modi had promised development, growth and jobs when he swept to power in 2014. He has delivered a New India and a Viksit Bharat (Developed India), with an economy that is the fastest expanding amongst major nations across the world.
The main charge of the Opposition is that Modi has used aggressive and divisive Hindu nationalism to sway the majoritarian community in the country. However, I find that even the non-Hindu communities have wide admiration for Modi’s jetspeed inauguration of the grand temple of the Hindu deity of Lord Shri Ram in Ayodhya, rebuilt on a sacred site believed to be the birthplace of Lord Ram. Although the Babri mosque that had come up there was razed down by the Hindus in 1992, many of my Muslim friends agree that the reconstruction of the temple on that site has set right a historical wrong. The Muslim community is now building a mosque just next to where the temple has come up and there seems to be no disillusionment over that.
About fifty per cent of the public is satisfied with the leadership of Modi as Prime Minister and another 15-20 per cent are fence-sitters who think that the failed opposition has forced this situation of TINA (there is no alternative) factor. Majority of Hindus think that Modi has valiantly fought to correct several historical wrongs and has also done well in leading India on to a infrastructure, technology and information superhighway.
His worst critics think that he signifies change and dynamism, even if he is on the verge of being a headstrong leader who listens to none.
In less than a month for 900 million voters to exercise their franchise in the world’s largest democracy, it isn’t as if the ruling party is not facing any issues at all. Inflation and unemployment are hurting the common man, and yet I find that the average Indian adult is satisfied with the progress made in the last ten years and is confident of a new and able India for their next generation. If that is not enough hope to vote in Modi’s favor, what is ?
Modi is surging ahead of all opposition parties, having skilfully built a narrative that fosters a sense of belonging and unity among diverse caste groups within the majoritarian Hindus. There is no stopping his engine as of now.
Notes:
- General elections will be held in India from 19 April 2024 to 1 June 2024 to elect the 543 members of the 18th Lok Sabha. The elections will be held in seven phases and the results will be announced on 4 June 2024. This will be the largest-ever election in the world, surpassing the 2019 Indian general election, and will be the longest-held general elections in India with a total span of 44 days (excluding the first 1951–52 Indian general election). The incumbent prime minister Narendra Modi who completed a second term will be contesting elections for a third consecutive term.