Новости за 29.01.2016

Joseph Stiglitz, Project Syndicate
SHANGHAI – China’s shift from export-driven growth to a model based on domestic services and household consumption has been much bumpier than some anticipated, with stock-market gyrations and exchange-rate volatility inciting fears about the country’s economic stability. Yet by historical standards, China’s economy is still performing well – at near 7% annual GDP growth, some might say very well – but success on the scale that China has seen over the past three decades breeds high expectations.

Alan Philps, The National
When foreign policy experts put their minds to ending the Syrian war, they often reach for the history books and the example of the treaties which ended religious conflicts in Europe in the 17th century. As Syrian peace talks are due to start in Geneva today, with few observers seeing a chance of a breakthrough, it is worth looking at how Europe brought an end to the Thirty Years War in 1648.

Helen Clark, Lowy Interpreter
Vietnam has just finished its 12th National Congress, the five-yearly event that decides the direction of the country. It is largely conducted behind closed doors, with the local press carrying little more than official statements or excitable-yet-boilerplate copy (see here for some communist elan).

Alexander Motyl, Foreign Affairs
Russian President Vladimir Putin used to seem invincible. Today, he and his regime look enervated, confused, and desperate. Increasingly, both Russian and Western commentators suggest that Russia may be on the verge of deep instability, possibly even collapse.

P. Deshazo, Herald
President Obama hosts his Colombian counterpart Juan Manuel Santos in Washington next week. Their meeting comes on the eve of a potential peace deal between the government of Colombia and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), the Marxist insurgency that for half a century has sought to topple the Colombian state. The two leaders will use the occasion to review U.S-Colombia relations, highlighted by 15 years of bilateral cooperation under the rubric of “Plan Colombia,” and to discuss to the peace process.

F. Nelson, Telegraph
From schools to childcare to pensions, Sweden has just seemed more advanced than us. A visit to Stockholm has always seemed like a trip to the future – a glimpse of how things might look in Britain, in a decade or two, if all goes well. But right now, Sweden is sending another message: how quickly crisis can engulf even a strong country if it gets immigration wrong.

Martin Kettle, Guardian
No, the problem about American football is that it’s way too dangerous for the players. As the Packers coach Vince Lombardi (the Super Bowl is played for a trophy in his name) once put it: “Football is not a contact sport; it is a collision sport.” In a long career, a successful player can expect to endure more than 70,000 blows. Most of all, this means blows to the head, and repeated concussions. Current estimates, according to the writer and Packers fan David Maraniss... Читать дальше...

George Weigel, National Review
The tender-minded will, I suppose, suggest that Renzi’s surrender to the aesthetic and culinary mores of the seventh-century Arabian peninsula were gestures of respect for difference and, coupled with the fulsome reception President Rouhani received in the Vatican, signs of a new opening to interreligious dialogue with the dominant Iranian form of Shia Islam. Two incidents from the life of Pope St. John Paul II, who knew something about both civilizational morale and interreligious dialogue... Читать дальше...

Andrey Bezrukov et al, National Interest
The year ahead could bring conflict or cooperation in these key areas.

Rosie Gray, BuzzFeed
There’s one part of the Republican establishment that’s not completely cold on Cruz: neoconservatives leaders. Ted Cruz and his top foreign policy adviser talk with BuzzFeed News about his approach and the party’s.

Fred Kaplan, Slate
Earlier in the week, Robert Gates—a lifelong Republican who has served as secretary of defense and CIA director—said the GOP candidates’ discussion of national security issues “would embarrass a middle schooler.” If Gates tuned in Thursday night, he would have had no cause to revise his assessment.

Martha Mercer, Daily Beast
To stop the ‘explosive’ spread of the virus in Brazil, people need screens—but they’re nearly impossible to come by.

Michael Schuman, Bloomberg View
Perhaps Beijing’s mandarins believe that by keeping growth aloft some of these problems will solve themselves. More likely, delaying hard choices will make the hit to future growth more damaging and the costs larger. Call China’s problems whatever you wish, but in the end, a crisis by any other name still smells pretty bad.

N. Konstandaras, NYT
Demagogues oversimplify things by making false promises and excessive accusations. They — and, through them, their supporters — are always in the right, no matter how mixed up reality may be. At the same time, they complicate things needlessly, often employing primitive conspiracy theories so that no one can understand what must be done.

David Ignatius, WaPo
Because these events helped shape the Middle East turmoil that has increased year by year since 2011, it’s worth reviewing them. This is not just a history lesson: The story bolsters Clinton’s case that she analyzed major foreign policy issues correctly during her time as secretary of state. The record suggests that if her advice had been followed, the United States might be in a stronger position in the Arab world today.

Jon Lee Anderson, New Yorker
When Martelly decided to run for President, he was a political novice, but the earthquake provided an opportunity. The country’s institutions, and the international community on which they depended, had disappointed Haiti in every conceivable way. Martelly was a celebrity, whose music appealed to Haitians of all political viewpoints. And, as a pro-business populist, he represented a break from nearly two decades of leftist politics. Martelly had famously opposed Aristide; in one widely disseminated video... Читать дальше...

George Friedman, Geo. Futures
Nikolai Patrushev, head of the Russian Security Council, said in an interview with Moskovsky Komsomolets that the United States was trying to weaken Russia in order to gain access to its mineral resources. He added that the "disintegration of the Russian Federation is not ruled out" by the United States. "This will open access to the richest resources for the United States, which believes that Russia possesses them undeservedly."

Hans Kundnani, GMF
BERLIN - As Europe struggles to deal with the refugee crisis, it seems like a long time ago that Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras threatened to undermine EU sanctions against Russia. His flirtation with Russian President Vladimir Putin last year was widely seen as a way for Greece to increase its leverage in negotiations with its eurozone partners and the International Monetary Fund, which were reaching a critical stage in the spring. In the end, a deal was struck in the... Читать дальше...

Olivia Enos, RCWorld
Human trafficking -- a global scourge impacting an estimated 21 million people -- generates close to 0 billion in annual profits. Now, the so-called Islamic State, or ISIS, is using human trafficking and human smuggling, not only as a brutal terror tactic, but as a source of funding for its operations.

Kaj Leers, RealClearWorld
As European leaders prepare for a mid-February summit -- just the latest such gathering to seek a solution to the Continent's refugee crisis -- the politics surrounding that crisis are intensifying. Under the aegis of Dutch leadership, the 28 heads of state must somehow compromise in order to save one of the fundaments of the EU: free movement across borders. Failing such a compromise, there is no Plan B.

L. Todd Wood, RealClearWorld
There's a new sheriff in town in the Middle East - and it's not the United States of America, who just spent trillions of dollars and lost thousands of soldiers in two different wars in the region. The new hegemon in the Levant and the Fertile Crescent is a rising axis of Russian, Iranian, and Syrian power.