Новости за 23.04.2016

Anton Tsvetov, The Diplomat
Many pundits saw this heated exchange as proof that the booming Russia-China partnership may take a toll on Russia’s strong ties with Vietnam. This is something the Vietnamese have been concerned about for some time now. Hanoi fears that Russia’s pivot to Asia is becoming too focused on China and that Beijing may use the growing interdependence between the two countries to cajole Russia into supporting Chinese policies in the South China Sea.

K. Mahbubani & L. Summers, Foreign Affairs
A modern China with thriving Western classical orchestras and Western-style universities provides a powerful demonstration of the fusion of civilizations. Western statesmen should allow this dynamic to gain momentum while remaining patient on other areas of change, such as in the political realm. China’s development will not necessarily be linear, but in the long run, it should continue in a positive direction.

Robert Kaplan, Nat'l Interest
WORLD DISORDER will only grow. The weakening and dissolution of small- and medium-size states in Africa and the Middle East will advance to quasi-anarchy in larger states on which the geographic organization of Eurasia hinges: Russia and China. For the external aggression of these new regional hegemons is, in part, motivated by internal weakness. They’re using nationalism to assuage the unraveling domestic economies upon which their societies’ stability rests. Then there is the European Union... Читать дальше...

Aaron David Miller, The Atlantic
The problem is that the world’s most compelling idea isn’t nationalism, democracy, or capitalism: It’s success. Winning generates power and credibility, and failure generates the opposite. This means there are real costs beyond mere wasted effort to not succeeding, as America’s recent history demonstrates. My own view is that the country’s failures in war- and peacemaking have contributed to a loss in America’s ability to command respect, fear, and admiration in places around the world. Читать дальше...

Martin Pallares, New York Times
Quito, Ecuador — The earthquake that shook Ecuador last Saturday has proved to be the most destructive in nearly seven decades and has caused the worst humanitarian catastrophe here in memory. Official figures record more than 577 dead, but according to the hundreds of volunteers in the disaster zone, there are many more fatalities not yet accounted for. Entire villages have been destroyed, and the photographs circulating on social media resemble scenes from the 2010 earthquake in Haiti.

Luis F. Alvarez, Ramen IR
On April 17, 2016, Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies voted to start impeachment procedures against President Dilma Rousseff. The impeachment vote comfortably passed the two-thirds majority needed, and will now move to the Senate where a simple majority will decide whether to launch an impeachment trial. Whatever the ultimate decision, however, Brazil’s problems will not be fixed by simply removing the president.

Ray Takeyh, Politico
Barack Obama traveled to Saudi Arabia on Tuesday in what could be his last—and likely most futile—visit as president. It’s not just that there’s bad blood over Congress’ effort to make Riyadh liable for lawsuits from the families of 9/11 victims. These days, when the United States and Saudi Arabia look at the region, they see two completely different landscapes and conflicting sets of interests. Riyadh sees a series of conflicts that the United States must resolve and a series of failing states that it must rehabilitate.

Nikolay Petrov, ECFR
Russia’s current regime will not last long. The tumultuous events in Ukraine in 2014 reduced the country’s possible trajectories to a single one – a path that will quickly lead to the collapse of the Putin government if there is no radical change in its course.

Richard Bush, Brookings
Will the two sides be able to find a mutually acceptable place on the spectrum in between clarity and ambiguity? Judging by Beijing’s forceful insistence, probably not. They probably know that President-elect Tsai is not willing to alienate her base for the sake of cross-Strait relations, which suggests that perhaps their strategy is to set the bar so high that she cannot clear it. Beijing sees no reason to make life easy for Tsai and the DPP—it would like her and her party to lose power as soon as possible.

Economist
Johannes Hahn, the EU commissioner in charge of enlargement, invited Macedonian leaders to an emergency meeting in Vienna on April 22nd to mediate a solution. But the meeting was cancelled after the Social Democrats refused to attend. The EU’s problem, says Nenad Markovikj, an analyst at Skopje University, is that it has completely lost its leverage. Macedonia’s application for EU membership has been blocked for two decades by a dispute with Greece over its name, and Macedonian voters have grown bitter. Читать дальше...

Elizabeth Whitfield, The Bulletin
How many nuclear weapons can India make with its existing fissile material stockpile? Recently, two different sources have produced wildly divergent estimates. In September 2015, the Pakistani newspaper Dawn reported that India possessed “enough fissile material … for more than 2,000 warheads.” In contrast, a report released by the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) in November 2015 concluded that India’s stockpile of fissile material was... Читать дальше...

R. Mohammed, Fiscal Times
Just as the U.S.-led coalition fighting ISIS is making real progress on the ground, political chaos in Iraq is threatening to undermine those hard-fought gains.

Michael Totten, WA Journal
Israel and the Sunni Arab states inched closer together diplomatically and geopolitically last week when Egypt transferred control of Tiran and Sanafir islands to Saudi Arabia.

Jonathan Freedland, Guardian
The US president destroyed one of the Vote Leave campaign’s core arguments, ending a week that may define the referendum debate.

Kevin Sullivan, RealClearWorld
Both Graham’s and Bono’s undoubtedly sincere efforts belie a deeply flawed understanding of what exactly the Marshall Plan was, and how and why it was so effective at helping Western Europe recover in the years following World War II.