Новости за 19.10.2020

Stratfor Worldview

In this episode of the Essential Geopolitics podcast from Stratfor, a RANE company, Emily Donahue speaks with Sim Tack, senior global analyst for Stratfor. In recent weeks, there has been a flare-up in border tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. While such flare-ups are not unusual, this one was unusual in its intensity. Tack explains why the two countries continue to fight over this region, and what a settlement in the works may reveal. Читать дальше...

Dan Caldwell, RealClearWorld

During this election season, there is much discussion around the increasing polarization of the American electorate. While these conversations can seem overwrought, there is clear data showing an increasing divide on issues like race relations and

Dhruva Jaishankar, Lowy

It’s fashionable to be pessimistic about the India-
Australia partnership, but in fact it is steadily improving.

Jonathon Kitson, CapX

Imagine a commercial airline company whose planes are all approaching the end of their working lives. The ageing of the planes is well known and understood, the need for a replacement obvious. Yet company management spend twenty years bickering and dithering over what replacements to buy, spending billions on abortive attempts to solve the problem. Paralysed by indecision, no new planes are bought at all: the company falls into chaos and irrelevance. Eventually it ceases to exist. Читать дальше...

Joshua Lehman, The Strategy Bridge

Partnered security operations are central to contemporary warfare, and strategists ought to employ rigorous ethics to the construction of strategies that employ other political communities. Consider American operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria as prominent examples. When partnerships occur between formal security forces of nation states, the obligations between partners are often well-codified. Long-standing alliances, like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)... Читать дальше...

Joshua Kurlantzick, CFR

In recent days, protests and counterprotests in Thailand have pushed the country closer to dangerous conflict between pro-democracy demonstrators, who also increasingly have called for monarchical reforms, and the royalist military and Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, himself a former general who launched the 2014 coup in the kingdom. Protests have been building for months, and have shifted from just focusing on constitutional...

Teng Biao et al, ChinaFile

In recent months, the U.S. government has ended both the Fulbright program and Peace Corps in China. Tit for tat journalist visa retaliations have...

Thomas Joscelyn, FDD

I had intended to write this week about North Korea’s provocative missile display, or China’s role in facilitating the opioid crisis inside the U.S., but both of those topics will have to wait. Earlier this week, a conspiracy theory went viral. It gained traction, in large part, because President Trump retweeted it.

P. Morcos, CSIS

Anton Troianovski, New York Times

Azerbaijan, an oil and gas hub on the Caspian Sea, has deployed superior firepower, using advanced drones and artillery systems it buys from Israel, Turkey and Russia. But three weeks into the conflict, Azerbaijan has failed to convert that advantage into broad territorial gains, indicating that a long and punishing war looms. It could morph into a wider crisis, pitting Azerbaijan’s main partner, Turkey, a NATO ally, against Russia, which has a mutual defense... Читать дальше...

Shahin Vallée, Financial Times

Governments are planning to cut deficits at the wrong time.

Ellie Geranmayeh, ECFR

A broad range of political and financial problems are likely to prevent Iran from importing advanced weapons systems in the coming years.

J. Aparicio-Otero, FP

A year after the leftist leader fled La Paz, Morales is looming over the upcoming vote.

Andrew Bacevich, TomDispatch

Adams was to secretaries of state what Tom Brady is to NFL quarterbacks: the Greatest Of All Time. As the consensus GOAT in the estimation of diplomatic historians, he brought to maturity a pragmatic tradition of statecraft originated by a prior generation of New Englanders and various slaveholding Virginians with names like Washington, Jefferson, and Madison. That tradition emphasized opportunistically ruthless expansionism on this continent, avid commercial engagement... Читать дальше...

T. Joscelyn, FDD

I had intended to write this week about North Korea’s provocative missile display, or China’s role in facilitating the opioid crisis inside the U.S., but both of those topics will have to wait. Earlier this week, a conspiracy theory went viral. It gained traction, in large part, because President Trump retweeted it.

Ayaan Hirsi Ali, Spectator

Just over a week ago, Emanuel Macron said he wanted to end ‘Islamic separatism’ in France because a minority of the country’s estimated six million Muslims risk forming a ‘counter-society’. On Friday, we saw yet another example of this when a  history teacher was

Le Monde

Friday evening in a small town north of Paris, a history and geography teacher was attacked and beheaded by an 18-year-old Islamist terrorist of Chechen origin, who was later killed in a standoff with police. The teacher had been the target of a local backlash that spread on the internet after he'd shown cartoons of the Muslim prophet to his class of 13 and 14-year-old students in a lesson about freedom of speech.

Francesca Ghiretti, The Diplomat

At the end of September 2020, Germany’s Hamburger Hafen und Logistik AG (HHLA) concluded an agreement with the Port of Trieste, in northern Italy, to invest in the development of the port’s logistic platform. The investment includes the acquisition by HHLA of 50.1 percent of the shares of the platform, with the rest belonging to Francesco Parisi S.p.A. (about 23 percent) and ICOP (22 percent), while the remaining...

Anthony Grafton, New York Review of Books

A new book cuts through generations of misguided commentary on the most famous speech of the Renaissance.

Robert Kaplan, National Interest

As we enter an age of great power conflict, imperialism lurks behind the scenes as an organizing principle of geopolitics, difficult as it may be to admit.