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Новости за 03.05.2021

Japan Should Stand Stronger With U.S.

Real Clear World 

Joseph Bosco, Taipei Times

China constantly seeks out ways to complain about perceived slights and provocations as pretexts for its own aggressive behavior. It is both victimization paranoia and a form of information warfare that keeps the West on the defensive. True to form, China objected even to the innocuous reference to Taiwan at April 16's summit meeting between US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga.

UK Tools Up Against China's Intel Gathering

Real Clear World 

C. Gallardo & S. Lau, Politico EU

LONDON — The U.K. has realized it is going to need more than James Bond to counter Chinese influence and espionage.

Sallust and the Disciplining Effects of Peer Competition

Real Clear World 

I. Rehman, WOTR

In May 1781, a cantankerous John Adams, still smarting after his public falling-out with Benjamin Franklin and humiliating ejection from the French court, sat down to write a stern letter to his teenage son, the young John Quincy Adams. Now based in Amsterdam, where he served as the fledgling American republic's envoy to the Netherlands, the classically educated New Englander was intent on...

Biden Faces Heavy Constraints on Iran Deal 2.0

Real Clear World 

Andrew Desiderio, Politico

Joe Biden's nascent bid to revive the Iran nuclear deal for a "longer, stronger" diplomatic agreement is already facing deep skepticism and potential hurdles in Congress — including from the president's own party.

How to Pursue Iran-Saudi-UAE Detente

Real Clear World 

Kirsten Fontenrose, Atlantic Council

Ongoing discussions among Gulf watchers about the need to de-escalate the protracted gray-zone conflict between Iran and her neighbors Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are really discussions about pathways to normalization. Viewed through the lens of national interests, it appears that détente, with the prospect of normalization, would carry substantial benefits for all parties.

Modi's BJP Finds the Voter's Pulse in West Bengal

Real Clear World 

Manas Nag, East Asia Forum

The ongoing West Bengal Legislative Assembly election has seen the defection of several state politicians from the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) to the rival Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The state is one of the BJP's last battlegrounds. The party once struggled to set foot in West Bengal, but that may change this weekend due to growing anti-incumbency. Even if the TMC keeps office by a narrow...

How BJP Retained Assam

Real Clear World 

Akhil Ranjan Dutta, Indian Express

The party owes its victory to multiple strategies — manufacturing social perceptions, implementing competitive populist schemes and bringing almost all mainstream tribal ethnic outfits into its fold.

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Turkey to Establish New Base in Iraqi Kurdistan

Real Clear World 

Amberin Zaman, Al Monitor

Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu announced today that Turkey will establish a military base in Metina, a mountainous area close to the Turkish border in Iraqi Kurdistan, to surveil the broader region. Speaking to members of the ruling Justice and Development Party's executive board, Soylu said, "Metina is an important region. Just as we did in Syria, we will build a base here and monitor the region. This area is a...

Downsides of Stressing National Values in Indo-Pacific

Real Clear World 

Derek Grossman, Nikkei

In order to compete more successfully with China, the Biden administration has argued that the United States must strengthen its Indo-Pacific alliances and partnerships. What the new administration has not answered is a critical question on the minds of many: Will Washington prioritize national interests or national values?

Bin Laden's Death: Satisfying but Strategically Empty?

Real Clear World 

Daniel Davis, 1945

How fast time passes: Exactly 10 years ago on Sunday, President Barack Obama somberly addressed the nation to announce that Osama Bin Laden had been killed by U.S. Forces in Pakistan.

Modi Fiddles While India Burns

Real Clear World 

Kapil Komireddi, Foreign Policy

What's unfolding in India is a devastating carnage precipitated by its self-enamored leader.

Africa's Most Interesting Untapped Oil Play

Real Clear World 

Viktor Katona, Oil Price

When writing the article on this year's Top Oil Wildcats, one of the hottest candidates had to be dropped out of the list. Not because the prospect turned out to be sub-commercial, far from it, it remains one of Africa's most interesting untapped plays, potentially opening up a new country with no previous exposure to the world of energy. As Senegal and Mauritania started to break their way onto the energy maps of...

Beyond Xinjiang: Xi's Ethnic Crackdown

Real Clear World 

James Leibold, The Diplomat

In January, the U.S. State Department declared that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was committing ongoing genocide against the Uyghurs and other ethnic and religious minority groups in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, something later echoed by the new Biden administration. Subsequently, the Canadian, Dutch, and British parliaments passed non-binding resolutions designating China's actions a genocide, with calls for other governments to follow suit.

The 'Canal War' in the Greater Caspian Region

Real Clear World 

Paul Goble, Jamestown

Turkey's plan to build a canal bypassing the Bosporus Strait and potentially upsetting the Montreux Convention (see EDM, February 9) along with Russia's movement of warships from the Caspian to the Sea of Azov via the Volga-Don Canal in order to threaten Ukraine (see EDM, April 13) highlight the ways in which artificial waterways can play a significant...

5 Lessons From Russia's Ukraine Escalation

Real Clear World 

Mathieu Boulègue, Chatham House

In mid-April, international media reported Russia will invade or ‘go to war' with Ukraine, without realizing this is already effectively the case. Russia's annexation of Crimea and invasion of Donbas back in 2014 essentially created a war - although it remains undeclared - with Ukraine.


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