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Новости за 09.07.2021

Europe as a Vassal

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Bruno Maçães, Politico EU

The biggest threat to the West isn't European autonomy but European weakness.

Russian Astronautics: A Fresh Start

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Pavel Luzin, Riddle
Pavel Luzin on how to make the space industry prosperous and keep up with the competition

NATO Is an Alliance Divided

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Andrew Michta, Wall Street Journal

President Biden is reviving the North Atlantic Treaty Organization—or is he? With President Trump gone, the alliance is back to business as usual, and Mr. Biden has emphasized members' "sacred obligation" under Article 5 of the Washington Treaty, which governs how members respond to an attack on a fellow member. But a military alliance needs a military. Without a clear pathway to European rearmament, NATO won't be able to respond to a crisis.

Another 'Crisis' in Civil-Military Relations?

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Andrew Radin & Thomas Szayna, WOTR

What should be the role of Defense Department civilians below the secretary of defense in policymaking? During James Mattis's tenure as the secretary of defense, senior civilians reported that they felt bypassed in the decision-making process and that their responsibilities were taken over...

Berlusconi Plots His Last Act

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Miles Johnson & Silvia Sciorilli Borrelli, Financial Times

Standing in the sun outside Milan's San Raffaele hospital last September, Silvio Berlusconi, the great survivor of Italian politics, recounted the story of his latest remarkable escape.

Peru Could Become Next Venezuela

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Andres Oppenheimer, Miami Herald

Will Pedro Castillo, the radical leftist who is likely to be declared winner of Peru's June 6 elections, turn his country into a new Venezuela? It would be naive to rule it out, but there are some reasons to hope that he would not be allowed to create a Venezuela-style dictatorship.

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The U.S. Economy's Coming Dual Crisis

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Desmond Lachman, 1945

Much of the current inflation debate is centered on the supply-side factors that have driven US inflation up to its highest level in the past few decades. Will these factors prove to be temporary, in which case there is no need for concern? Or will they prove to be more lasting, in which case policy action might be needed to prevent inflation from spinning out of control?

The Importance of Cuba to China's Strategy

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George Friedman, Geopolitical Futures

China has the option of attacking the face of American confidence. It's possible the U.S. has overestimated its capabilities, but then the Chinese may have done the same. The problem of launching a war is that you might be defeated, and where the U.S. has room for maneuver to its rear, China would be fighting with its back against its eastern seaboard. Under those circumstances, the consequences for losing could spiral, causing irreparable political damage to the ruling party. Читать дальше...

China Is Weaker Than Xi Will Admit

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Ivan Eland, The American Conservative

The Chinese strongman and the U.S. security establishment both profit from pretending the country is a bigger threat than it is.

Regime Change Is Not an Option in China

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Evan Medeiros & Ashley Tellis, FA

The relationship between China and the United States is the central drama of global politics today. It captures and defines the current era: great-power rivalry, ideological competition, the diffusion of advanced technology, and the weakening of U.S. hegemony. Dealing with China is shaping up to be a far more significant challenge for U.S. policymakers than competing with the Soviet Union ever was. Not only is Beijing more capable than Moscow was during the height of the Cold War... Читать дальше...

Growing UAE-Saudi Rivalry Could Help U.S.

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Annelle Sheline, Responsible Statecraft

Their fierce competition for economic power in the region might actually smooth America's exit from the stage.

Lukashenko's Migrant Warfare against EU

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Mark Galeotti, Spectator

When you have already forced a plane down with spurious claims of a bomb threat, just to arrest one dissident journalist, where do you go from there? For the Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko, a man looking to punish the European Union after it imposed sanctions on Belarus, it seems that exploiting would-be migrants and asylum seekers is the way forward.

Can Europe Improve Relations With Russia?

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Matthew Mai, 1945

Last week, in an Ostpolitik redux, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emanuel Macron attempted to capitalize on the G-7 and NATO summits by advocating for a separate diplomatic track with Russia. At a meeting of E.U. leaders, Merkel tabled a French-supported proposal that sought to create a format for "direct contact"...

New Book Hints at Biden's China Strategy

Real Clear World 

Paul Heer, National Interest

Given the Biden administration's mantra—as stated by Secretary of State Antony Blinken—that the U.S.-China relationship "will be competitive where it should be, collaborative where it can be, and adversarial where it must be," Doshi's discussion of the prospects for bilateral cooperation merits attention.


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