SI:AM | The NFL Playoff Picture Is Coming Into Focus

With four weeks left in the regular season, the division and wild card races are heating up.

Good morning, I’m Dan Gartland. Week after week, the Eagles prove they’re the best team in the NFC.

In today’s SI:AM:

🦁 Jared Goff and the red-hot Lions

🏆 The best potential World Cup final matchups

🇵🇹 The end for Cristiano Ronaldo

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Four games remain

With four weeks left in the NFL regular season, the race for the postseason is heating up. Yesterday’s slate featured multiple games involving teams in high-stakes battles for playoff positioning, while the Patriots can keep pace in the crowded AFC wild-card race with a win tonight against the Cardinals. Let’s take a look at some of the most notable races.

Home field advantage in the AFC

The No. 1 seed is especially important in the third season of the seven-team-per-conference playoff format, since only one team receives a first-round bye. The Bills and Chiefs have identical 10–3 records, but Buffalo is in the top spot because it beat Kansas City in Week 6. The Chiefs’ remaining schedule (Texans, Seahawks, Broncos, Raiders) is easier than the Bills’ (Dolphins, Bears, Bengals, Patriots), but the tiebreaker puts the Bills in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 seed.

The NFC South pillow fight

If not for Tom Brady’s miracle comeback last Monday, every team in the NFC South would be 5–8. As it stands now, though, Brady’s Buccaneers are atop the division at 6–7, but the Falcons and Panthers are still very much alive at 5–8 and the 4–9 Saints are still technically in the hunt. Somebody has to win that division, resulting in a home playoff game.

The sixth and seventh seeds in the NFC

Here’s where the expanded playoff format makes things more interesting. The Cowboys (10–3) have a pretty good hold on the first wild-card spot. After that there are three teams with seven wins vying for the final two spots. The Commanders and Giants are both 7-5-1, and Washington, which was off this week, moved into the No. 6 spot when the Giants got walloped by the Eagles. New York currently has the No. 7 spot, but the Seahawks are close behind at 7–6, and the Lions (6–7) can’t be discounted, either.

It’s the remaining schedules of those four teams that make this race really interesting. The Giants and Commanders play each other next week in a game that got flexed into the Sunday Night Football spot. After that, both teams have some tough games to close out the season. The Giants play the Vikings, Colts and Eagles, while the Commanders play the 49ers, Browns and Cowboys. The Seahawks get the 49ers, Chiefs, Jets and Rams. Detroit’s remaining schedule is probably the easiest of the four: Jets, Panthers, Bears, Packers. Only one of those teams is above .500.

The AFC North

The Ravens and Bengals are both 9–4, but it’s Baltimore that leads the division right now because it beat Cincinnati on a field goal as time expired in Week 5. Both teams are in good position to make the postseason, but the division title is important because it comes with the privilege of hosting a first-round playoff game. If you want to look ahead, the Ravens and Bengals will play each other on the last day of the season in a game that could end up deciding the division.

The AFC wild card

Like in the NFC, there’s a bit of a logjam in the AFC wild-card standings. If the Patriots beat the Cardinals tonight, they’ll be 7–6, leaving us with three non-division-leading teams at 7–6 (along with the Chargers and Jets) in a tie for the seventh and final playoff spot. The Chargers’ win over the Dolphins last night dropped Miami to 8–5, adding further intrigue to this race.

The best of Sports Illustrated

The Lions’ hot stretch has been a surprise to many but not to Jared Goff. He spoke with Albert Breer for today’s Daily Cover:

“You never know how long the bad times are going to last, I guess,” Goff said shortly after getting home early Sunday evening. “The work we were putting in and the players we have and the coaches we have, we always believed in it. It was just a matter of time. In some ways, we were like, When is it going to pop?”

• After winning their fifth game in six tries, Conor Orr writes that the Lions are getting hot at the right time but need everything to break their way if they’re going to make the playoffs.
• Portugal’s World Cup exit was emblematic of the end of Cristiano Ronaldo’s career, Jonathan Wilson writes.
• Wilson also wrote about England’s near miss against France (and Harry Kane’s even nearer miss).
• With four teams remaining, Avi Creditor ranks his preferred World Cup final matchups.
• The first thing Brittney Griner did when she picked up a basketball again was dunk, but her agent says she’s not ready to say whether she’ll resume her WNBA career.
• Texas men’s basketball coach Chris Beard was arrested early this morning, according to multiple reports. He has been charged with third-degree felony assault on a family/household member.
• Mississippi State football coach Mike Leach is reportedly in a “critical” medical situation. Leach was taken to a hospital Sunday after suffering a “personal health issue at his home,” according to a statement from the school’s athletic department.

The top five...

… moments in the NFL yesterday:

5. Jameson Williams’s first NFL touchdown.

4. Panthers receiver Terrace Marshall’s catch using his legs.

3. Tyreek Hill’s fumble recovery touchdown.

2. Lions offensive lineman Penei Sewell’s reception on a key third down.

1. Brock Purdy’s family’s reaction to his success with the Niners.

SIQ

Which major rule change was implemented at baseball’s winter meetings on this day in 1930?

• The height of the pitcher’s mound was standardized.
• A ball bouncing over the outfield wall would no longer be a home run.
• The strike zone was defined as extending from the armpits to the bottom of the knees.
• The spitball was outlawed.

Friday’s SIQ: On Dec. 9, 1985, after being held without a catch the week before, 49ers rookie Jerry Rice began his NFL record streak of consecutive games with a reception. What year was it the next time Rice played a game in which he did not catch a pass?

• 1991
• 1995
• 1999
• 2004

Answer: 2004. Rice had 10 catches for 241 yards and a touchdown against the Rams on Dec. 9, 1985, and then went 18 full seasons in which he caught at least one pass in every game he played. The streak was finally broken after 274 games Sept. 19, 2004. He was 23 when it began and a month shy of his 42nd birthday when it was snapped.

The streak was broken in the Raiders’ Week 2 game against the Bills, a 13–10 Oakland win. Rice was targeted only twice. Raiders coach Norv Turner said he became aware Rice’s streak was in jeopardy only in the final minutes of the fourth quarter, when Oakland was keeping the ball on the ground to run out the clock.

“I try to work hard, and if things happen, they happen,” Rice told reporters. “But today it didn’t happen and I’m man enough to deal with the situation. I have never backed away from it and I look forward to the next opportunity.”

After Rice got shut out in consecutive games in Weeks 5 and 6, the Raiders traded him to the Seahawks. He still had some magic left in him, though. In Seattle’s Week 13 game against the Cowboys, the 42-year-old Rice had eight catches for 145 yards and a touchdown.

Editors’ note: Saturday’s edition of this newsletter misspelled the name of SI’s co-editor-in-chief. He is Stephen Cannella, not Canella. Also, the SI Vault feature from that edition should have referenced this Dec. 9, 1991, cover of Desmond Howard.

Check out more of SI’s archives and historic images at vault.si.com.

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