Browns-Commanders Week 17 Betting Preview

A preview of the Commanders matchup against the Browns, where Washington is a light favorite at home.

Before the start of the season, if someone told you that Washington would be in last place in the NFC North in the final game in December with a shot at the playoffs, you would have thought they were crazy. Instead, they enter Week 17 with a 7-7-1 record while losing two straight games. With two wins at home over Cleveland and Dallas, the Commanders would lock up a playoff berth for the second time since 2015. Their last winning season came in 2016 (8-7-1). With one win over the final two weeks, Washington could still make the postseason with one more loss by Seattle, Detroit, and Green Bay.

Since the return of Deshaun Watson, Cleveland went 2-2 while only scoring 60 points (33 over the past three weeks). As a result, they were eliminated from the playoffs.

Taylor Heinicke kept the Commanders’ playoff hopes alive by going 5-1 over his first six starts after taking over for the injured Carson Wentz. After a tie and a loss to the Giants in back-to-back games, Washington hooked him in the second half vs. the 49ers (166 passing yards with two touchdowns and one interception). Wentz started the year 1-4 despite passing for over 300 yards in three contests (313/4, 337/3, and 359/2). He will start Week 17 vs. the Browns.

Cleveland continues to rank poorly defending the run (414/2,015/17 – 4.9 yards per rush) while holding their ground vs. the pass (6.9 yards per pass attempt with 19 touchdowns). The Browns’ defense allowed 17 points or fewer in four of their previous five games. Only three teams have passed for more than 300 yards (NYJ – 309/4, NE – 309/2, and MIA – 302/3). In addition, Cleveland has lost the time of possession in six consecutive matchups.

Chase Young made his first appearance of the season last week vs. the 49ers. Washington had him on the field for 30 of their 52 plays. The Commanders’ defense allowed 20 or more points in 11 of their 15 games, with the best showing coming against Chicago (7), Indianapolis (16), Houston (10), and Atlanta (13). They have five games with four or more sacks while holding quarterbacks to fewer than 210 yards in eight contests. Their defense has also been helped by low pass attempts per game (29.8).

Over the previous three weeks, Washington’s wideout gained over 200 yards (20/220/2, 13/219/1, and 15/205/3).

Browns vs. Commanders Odds

Moneyline: Browns (+110) | Commanders (-133)
Spread: CLE +2.5 (-110) | WAS -2.5 (-110)
Total: 40.5 – Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Game Info: January 1st, 2023 | 1:00 p.m. ET | FOX

Browns Straight-Up Record: 6-9
Browns Against The Spread Record: 7-8

Commanders Straight-Up Record: 7-7-1
Commanders Against The Spread Record: 7-7-1

Bet on Browns-Commanders at SI Sportsbook

Odds and Betting Insights

Both teams in this matchup would like to establish the run while playing well on the defensive side of the ball. The Browns are a much better team playing from the lead, as it forces teams to play into their strength defensively (defending the pass and rushing the quarterback by Myles Garrett – 13.5 sacks). After four games, Watson (completion rate – 57.7 and 5.7 yards per pass attempt) has yet to reach his previous form showcased over his four seasons with the Texans.

Wentz tends to be a dink-and-dunk passer (6.5 yards per pass attempt over his last 52 games), which can help long drives but removes some big play ability for the Commanders’ best wideouts. As a result, Washington will need to finish off drives in the red zone with touchdowns by their running backs if they want to win this game.

• The under in the game total has come in five consecutive Browns games (7-7-1 on the year).
• Cleveland is 4-3 vs. the spread on the road (1-4 last five straight up away from home).
• When Washington has been favored this year, the under is 5-1 with five straight wins. The winning side of the game total has been the under in 10 of their previous 13 matchups.
• Midseason, the Commanders went 6-0-1 vs. the spread, but they’ve failed to cover in their last three games.

Despite the worst record, Cleveland has the better overall star power on the team, but their offense has yet to be sharp since the return of Watson. Will their chemistry get better over the final two games? I'm leaning toward the Commanders in this matchup due to expected success scoring via the run, defensive play, and their coaching staff. 

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