Новости за 09.01.2020

Geopolitical Futures

German Marshall Fund

A. Gilbert, M. Bazilian & S. Loza, Foreign Policy

Even more than fracking, tapping oceanic methane hydrates could soon upend the global energy landscape.

J. Forsyth, Spectator

For the first time in four years, the British government knows what it wants

Pres. Ursula von der Leyen with Der Spiegel

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has no shortage of challenges facing her as she begins her tenure. She spoke with DER SPIEGEL about Donald Trump, climate change and the state of democracs inside the EU.

Kenneth Pollack, RealClearWorld

Iran responded for the killing of Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani exactly as they said they would, with an overt military strike against a pair of American military targets. While the strike was perfunctory and mostly painless for the United States, we should not assume that Iran’s retaliation is over. There is a variety of means over time that Iran can employ to extract real vengeance for Soleimani’s death. Tehran could inflict real harm on the United States and its interests in the years to come. Читать дальше...

Dovid Margolin, Mosaic

In early 2014, political disruption in Ukraine devolved into unrest, a Russian invasion of the country, and a war that is still not over. Yet today, almost six years later—and despite a phone call between the U.S. president and his Ukrainian counterpart that dominated the American news cycle for weeks—even those who closely follow international events remain, for the most part, in the dark about Ukraine’s overall present situation, its history—or, in particular, the condition of its Jews. Читать дальше...

Klaus Larres, The Conversation

That includes the U.S. and Iran, which have not had an official way to talk directly to each other since President Jimmy Carter cut off diplomatic and consular relations in April 1980, as part of the Tehran embassy hostage crisis. The link has never been restored.

Victor Davis Hanson, National Review

As long as Trump replies with air power disproportionate to any Iranian attacks, he governs the tempo of the confrontation.

Robert Jervis, WOTR

Most obviously, humility is in order. Those of us of a certain age can remember when many thought that the 1972 mining of Hanoi and Haiphong would lead to something worse than the Cuban missile crisis. In the mid-1980s, few analysts thought the Cold War would soon end. Many journalists and not a few scholars claim deep knowledge of the Middle East and the ability to predict how everyone will react, but we should recognize that the layer of regional expertise in the United States is... Читать дальше...

Dan Drezner, Washington Post

Why Iran’s missile attack might be the beginning of the end of escalation.

E. Aleynikova & N. Petrov, Chatham House

Vladimir Putin’s condescending remarks on Greta Thunberg’s activism say more about the Kremlin’s attitude towards Russian youth than climate change.

Christian Heller, The Strategy Bridge

The perennial American search for stability in the Middle East dates back to anti-Soviet objectives in the early Cold War when Washington treated the region as one piece of an international puzzle to contain Communism. Though the international threat from the Soviets is gone, the search for stability—specifically in the form of a collective security agreement like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)—remains highly attractive in the Middle East. Читать дальше...

Bill Wirtz, The American Conservative

They remember well the failures of the Iraq war and aren't cowed by Mike Pompeo's disapproval.

Suadad Al-salhy, Middle East Eye

The Iranian-backed Iraqi armed factions are lost, distracted and unable to effectively strike American forces in Iraq after the loss of two key leaders last week, Shia leaders have told Middle East Eye.

Nahal Toosi, Politico

For years, they called for a showdown with Tehran. But when it finally happened, they quickly called for calm.

A. Al-Eryan & R.D. Harden, The Hill

The Trump administration's targeted killing of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani triggered a direct response last night as

Mike Chang, Taipei Times

The presidential and legislative elections take place on Saturday. Every election is important and the main characteristic of these elections is generational change.

K. Shaheen, Nat'l

The destruction that Suleimani and his underlings wrought in Syria will take years to unpack. At its heart, though, was a cruel calculus that saw the infliction of grave suffering and war crimes on civilians, who simply wanted to live in dignity, as an acceptable means to an expansionist, hegemonic end.

Thomas Friedman, New York Times

One day they may name a street after President Trump in Tehran. Why? Because Trump just ordered the assassination of possibly the dumbest man in Iran and the most overrated strategist in the Middle East: Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani.

Richard Wike, Foreign Affairs

How Worries About U.S. Dominance Gave Way to Worries About U.S. Decline.

George Friedman, Geopolitical Futures

In order to understand the current confrontation between Iran and the United States, we might begin with the Persian-Babylonian wars. Alternatively, we could begin with the decision of the United States to withdraw U.S. forces from Iraq after the election of Barack Obama. Efficiency demands the latter.