Новости за 21.04.2020

Bonnie Kristian, RealClearWorld

The death of 500,000 Iraqi children was “worth it,” former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright infamously said in 1996. She was talking about the possible costs of a punishing sanctions regime against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. Two dozen years later, the Trump administration’s fixation on so-called maximum-pressure policies against Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela — particularly in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic — follows in Albright’s...

Doug Bandow, National Interest

Rumors or reality? Although Kim Jong-un’s absence indicates that something is wrong, the incident may prove to be minor. And life in the North then will go on as before. Or not. 

Fyodor Tertitskiy, NK News

The DPRK leader's death could lead to a major power vacuum, though stability would likely prevail

Julian Jessop, CapX

On Monday the price of a key US oil benchmark fell as low as minus $37.63 a barrel (yes, minus), meaning that holders were effectively paying others to take their oil away. This clearly needs some explaining. Is this new evidence that global demand is in freefall? And what do lower oil prices mean for the world economy anyway?

Nick Cunningham, Oil Price

Oil prices crashed through zero, closing out the day at -$37 per barrel, an unprecedented meltdown.

Follain & Migliaccio, BV

The foundations for the European Union were laid six decades ago in Rome and some officials in the Eternal City are starting to think they might just be seeing the beginning of its breakup.

James Jay Carafano, National Interest

Make no mistake: The global struggle with China is about to go to the next level. Or two. Or three. By triggering a global disease outbreak, the Chinese Communist Party’s reprehensible behavior crossed the last line, leaving other nations no recourse but to push back. Hard.

Peter Beinart, The Atlantic

The Democratic candidate tries to out-hawk Trump, but trying to beat Republicans at their own game is pointless—even dangerous.

J. Thomas, The National

Social media can act as a petri dish for rumours and delusions that can go viral and infect the minds of millions

Dmitry Trenin, Moscow Times

The coronavirus pandemic is another opportunity that Moscow is using to engage Washington in an attempt to break through the logjams in their relationship.

Sarmishta Subramanian, Macleans

What economies face now may not be solely a coronavirus-triggered meltdown. As devastating as the coming recession—or depression—is likely to be, the health crisis is exacerbating problems in a system that was already under strain.

Seth Frantzman, NRO

Eleven Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard fast boats harassed U.S. naval vessels in the Persian Gulf in mid April. 

Guy Burton, Project on Middle East Political Science

China has been an early partner in tackling the COVID-19 pandemic in the Middle East. Initially seen primarily as the source of the virus, China has provided material and equipment, as well as advice. China’s actions in the Middle East are similar to those it is carrying out in other parts of the world and reflects its keenness to control and shape the narrative. Rather than be seen as the source of the virus, it wants to present itself as a leader in containing its spread. Читать дальше...

R. Smyth et al, PONARS

PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo) The COVID-19 pandemic hit Russia at a precarious moment marked by a global oil war and constitutional reforms intended to secure regime stability beyond 2024. These three crises place significant pressure on the Putin system defined by its focus on statism, international standing, and a power vertical that...

Stratfor Worldview

Economist

As the first wave of the pandemic peaks, politicians go back to bickering

Pres. Tsai Ing-wen, Time

APRIL 16, 2020

Taiwan is an island of resilience. Centuries of hardship have compelled our society to cope, adapt, and survive trying circumstances. We have found ways to persevere through difficult times together as a nation, and the...

David Goldwyn & Andrea Clabough, AC

The Russian government has been instrumental in preserving the Maduro regime, despite years of intense domestic and international pressure favoring a democratic transition. Russia, under the auspices of President Vladimir Putin, has provided the regime invaluable diplomatic leverage, security personnel, and material, as well as an economic lifeline. Until recent sanctions ended the practice, this has taken the form of support from Russian oil company Rosneft to buy... Читать дальше...