Новости за 04.06.2021

A. Ang U-Jin & O. Pekka Suorsa, Diplomat

Tensions across the Taiwan Strait have risen sufficiently for The Economist to declare on the cover of its May 1, 2021 edition that Taiwan is now "the most dangerous place on Earth." According to this narrative, Beijing has invested heavily in military capabilities that it can now bring to bear in a confrontation over Taiwan, which it regards as a renegade province. The Chinese Communist Party has never forsworn the use of force to achieve Taiwan's...

A. Oppenheimer, Miami Herald

Nicaragua's dictator Daniel Ortega is taking no chances in his effort to be re-elected for a fourth term in November: He not only has stacked the electoral tribunal with loyalists — he also has effectively barred the most popular opposition presidential hopefuls from running for office.

Robert Keatley, TNI

This suggests that suppressing dissent, partly to prevent political infection of the Chinese mainland, is not Beijing's only goal. It has stifled critics and curtailed civic life, regulating Hong Kong in ways similar to those in mainland cities. But it is also expanding the city's role as a vital link to global finance, all to benefit China's wealthiest individuals, its largest companies, and their political friends. How that will help ordinary citizens of Hong Kong itself is less clear. Читать дальше...

Oriana Skylar Mastro, Foreign Affairs

Why Beijing Might Resort to Force

Stephen Booth, CH

Is the EU making a habit of alienating its neighbours? Last week, the Swiss government informed Brussels that after seven years of painstaking negotiations it was unwilling to sign a proposed "Institutional Framework Agreement" designed to consolidate and govern the Swiss-EU relationship. The breakdown between Bern and Brussels has obvious parallels with Brexit and has to some extent become intertwined with it.

Nikolas Gvosdev, FPRI

Reasons for Revisiting: 2021 appears to be shaping up as a year for media retrospection, whether in missing key developments, misinterpreting emerging trends, or simply failing at efforts to predict. Part of the criticism is that journalists have become less willing to break with prevailing interpretations and narratives. It may be useful, therefore, to re-engage with a point raised by Robert Kaplan about the mindset of contemporary journalists versus the approach taken by intelligence and business analysts. Читать дальше...

Wolfgang Schauble, Financial Times

"In the long run we are all dead," wrote John Maynard Keynes 98 years ago. He believed short-term economic intervention was necessary in times of crisis to stabilise the economy. New stimulus programmes, including the EU's post-pandemic recovery fund, are in line with this tradition. I was in favour from the outset — to the surprise of some people.

Jack Detsch, Foreign Policy

Biden is likely to have more leverage over the fragile new government in Israel.

Doug Bandow, Am. Conservative

Most Americans are horrified by the prospect of nuclear war. Yet during his recent summits with the leaders of South Korea and Japan, President Joe Biden reaffirmed Washington's willingness to use nuclear weapons to defend both nations. Even though the U.S. risks nuclear attack in return.

Jenny Uglow, New York Review of Books

Linda Colley shows in her new book that written constitutions developed both as a means of shoring up entrenched rulers and of turning successful rebellions into legitimate governments.

Mazal Mualem, Al Monitor

At the height of one of the most tense and uncertain days in the history of Israel's Knesset, Isaac Herzog was chosen yesterday as the 11th president of the State of Israel. He will take office July 9 and serve in this role for the next seven years.

Katy Balls, Eve. Standard

hat's the reason for the Conservative lead in the polls? Tory sleaze stories have failed to cut through and now ministers are even optimistic that Dominic Cummings's tirade against them on Covid failures won't put a big dent in their lead over Labour.

Max Boot, Foreign Affairs

The "Forever Wars" Are Ending, But the Fight Against Terrorists and Guerrillas Will Go On

Oliver Yule-Smith, WOTR

In 1962, former U.S. Secretary of State Dean Acheson dealt a crushing blow to the British foreign policy establishment. With a wry phrase he created a Sisyphean task. It was the latter part of Acheson's much-used aphorism that "Britain had lost an empire and failed to find a new role" that stung. Given that he would go on to criticize Britain's attempts to provide openings for dialogue with the Soviet Union, while praising Britain's application to the Common Market... Читать дальше...

Peter Suciu, 1945

Russia has responded in kind and announced recently that it will form twenty new units to counter what Moscow claims is a growing threat from NATO. Those units will be placed in Russia's western region, which borders Ukraine and Belarus. Those...

George Friedman, Geopolitical Futures

Russia and the European Union held a conference last week, during which Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in a speech: "The situation remains rather alarming. Our common European continent is experiencing an unprecedented crisis of trust. Division lines are emerging in Europe again. They are moving eastward and getting deeper as if they were frontline trenches." These are not trivial points, nor are they the usual verbal jousting of international conferences. Читать дальше...

Frida Ghitis, WPR

Less than one week before a pivotal election in Peru, authorities released a revised count of the pandemic death toll in the South American country. It's no secret that COVID-19 has devastated Peru, but the figures, nonetheless, were breathtaking. The government put the true number of deaths at 180,764, three times higher than earlier estimates.

David Gardner, Financial Times

A motley collection of parties could finally oust the country's longest-serving premier