Trade Down Or Stay Put? What Odds Say The Chicago Bears Should Do

The Chicago Bears are two games away from locking down the #2 overall pick in the 2023 draft. Everybody is excited about the idea, but not for the same reasons. Several fans love it because it gives GM Ryan Poles a golden opportunity to land a generational-type talent to the roster. Outside of Justin Fields, the Bears don’t have any of those at the moment. Others think the opposite. They believe holding #2 offers the perfect chance to trade down with a quarterback-desperate team in hopes of stockpiling extra picks.

The logic appears sound. Chicago has tons of holes on their roster. Poles wants to build through the draft. So it makes sense he’d need more picks to make that possible. Get teams bidding against each other, and he could end up with extra 1st and 2nd rounders. That is a good thing since Kyler Gordon and Jaquan Brisker already look like solid additions. Of course, moving down also runs the risk of passing on a potential future superstar.

So this might be a good time to raise the question. Which is the better approach: staying put or moving down? I compiled data from the previous decade to help provide an answer.

The Chicago Bears must tread carefully with this idea.

2017

Bears get:

• #2 pick (Mitch Trubisky)

49ers get:

• #3 pick (Solomon Thomas)
• 3rd round pick
• 4th round pick
• Future 3rd round pick

San Francisco was the winner of this trade, but it wasn’t a fleecing, as many claim. Trubisky was obviously a disappointment for the Bears. However, Thomas was a major bust for the 49ers too. They turned that 3rd rounder in 2017 into Dante Pettis and D.J. Reed through a trade. The 4th rounder was packaged to move up for linebacker Reuben Foster, another big miss. The saving grace was the future 3rd round pick who became star linebacker, Fred Warner.

2016

Eagles get:

• #2 pick (Carson Wentz)

• 4th round pick

Browns get:

• #8 pick (Traded)
• 3rd round pick
• 4th round pick
• Future 1st round pick (2017)
• Future 2nd round pick (2018)

This trade became convoluted thanks to Cleveland continuing to make trades after the deal was struck. Ultimately, they ended up with Corey Coleman, Shon Coleman, Cody Kessler, Ricardo Louis, Derrick Kindred, Jordan Payton, Spencer Drango, Jabrill Peppers, and DeShone Kizer. If people are wondering why Browns GM Sashi Brown was eventually fired, this trade should be circled. Philadelphia fared a bit better. Wentz had an MVP-caliber 2017 season and helped the Eagles win the Super Bowl. However, he flamed out not too long after that. Donnel Pumphrey became their other acquisition.

2012

Redskins get:

• #2 pick (Robert Griffin III)

Rams get:

• #6 pick (Traded)
• 2nd round pick
• Future 1st round pick (2013)
• Future 1st round pick (2014)

Griffin III was brilliant in his rookie season, making the Pro Bowl. However, a catastrophic knee injury derailed him in the playoffs, and he was never the same after that. The Rams had the makings of a dynasty with that package. Instead, they ended up with this.

Brockers and Jenkins became good players for St. Louis. However, Ogletree and Robinson, both 1st rounders, were significant busts. Robinson was the worst of all since he was the #2 pick in the 2014 draft. The Rams passed on Jake Matthews, Khalil Mack, and Mike Evans to take him.

Results of the #2 pick since 2012

Remember, the Chicago Bears won’t take a quarterback if they stay put. When accounting for only non-QB picks, the spot has consistently produced good players. Injuries undid Joeckel. Robinson is the only outright bust. Barkley, Bosa, Young, and now Hutchinson are or appear to be studs. When giving an honest assessment, the results of trading down haven’t yielded what many people assume they did. San Francisco, Cleveland, and St. Louis all failed to build championship teams with the hauls of picks they acquired. Conversely, the #2 spot has a roughly 60-70% chance of producing a Pro Bowl player.

Would you still take the risk? That is the conundrum Poles will face next spring.