Breeders’ Cup bettors have to be picky this weekend

ARCADIA — Even as sports gambling expands, there’s still no event each year more tantalizing to bettors than the Breeders’ Cup thoroughbred races. Big, competitive fields offer enticing odds on star horses in seven-figure parimutuel pools. Backing the right combination of horses in any of the dozens of “exotic” wagers on the program can turn a few dollars into thousands.

It’s more tantalizing than ever this year, when the Breeders’ Cup races will be run for the 40th time on Friday and Saturday at Santa Anita Park.

The wagering menu has multiplied since the first Breeders’ Cup was first held as a one-day, seven-race festival at Hollywood Park in 1984. Fans’ options then were limited to win, place, show and exacta bets on every race, plus one daily double and the pick-six (nobody picked six).

The Breeders’ Cup has grown to two days and 14 races. Now fans can choose among win, place, show, exacta, trifecta, superfecta and high-five bets on individual races, plus a variety of doubles, pick-threes, pick-fours and pick-fives, and a pick-six each afternoon.

Get this: In part because the Breeders’ Cup Classic has been moved earlier in Saturday’s card – to make room for NBC’s college football coverage – the biggest race will play a role in 12 different multi-race bets.

That means more ways to win money, but also more ways to lose it. The best chance for success comes from building your betting action around the few races in which you have your most confident opinions, and avoid frittering away cash on the rest. This puts a premium on making your picks before you get to the track and going in with a plan – subject to change based on scratches or odds fluctuations.

“Money management has become more important than handicapping,” Bob Ike, the horse racing handicapper and Thoroughbred Los Angeles radio host, said this week as we talked about the glut of multi-horse – exotic – wagers being offered. “Maybe there’s something to be said for making the old-school win bet on a horse if the (odds are) right.”

Bettors can find Equibase past performance charts for the Breeders’ Cup horses available for free on the Breeders’ Cup website at breederscup.com/program. Daily Racing Form past performances can be purchased at drf.com/classic-pp. Brisnet PPs can be purchased at brisnet.com/product/past-performances/UWC.

The basics don’t change because you’re handicapping the Breeders’ Cup. It’s still mostly about who has run best before, who’s in sharp form and who’s suited to today’s race.

But here are some Breeders’ Cup-specific factors to consider:

The track: A running surface can favor front-runners or closers, though most are fair to all. In the 2021 Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar, winners led from start to finish in four of the seven main-track (dirt) races; in 2022 at Keeneland, none did. Santa Anita tends to favor horses with early speed more than other places; over the past five racing days there, 11 of 23 main-track races were won wire-to-wire. A horse like Zozos (in the Dirt Mile on Saturday) should do well with the front-running style he showed back east.

Home-course advantage: It can’t hurt if a horse has run well before at Santa Anita, which stokes confidence in Tamara (heavy favorite in Friday’s Juvenile Fillies), Muth (one of the favorites in Friday’s Juvenile), and even Proxy. But don’t knock visitors from Britain, Ireland and France. Last year at Keeneland, six of the seven Breeders’ Cup races run on turf were won by horses from Europe. And this looks like another strong Euro contingent, led by English Derby winner Auguste Rodin (in Saturday’s Turf).

Jockeys: A Breeders’ Cup is a clash of the best riders from around the country and the world, so it’s interesting to see who tends to do best. Santa Anita leading jockey Juan Hernandez is seeking his first Breeders’ Cup victory. Since 2014, when Irad Ortiz Jr. began to make his mark on the event, Ortiz leads with 17 Breeders’ Cup wins, followed by Joel Rosario (13), Javier Castellano (9), Florent Geroux (7), John Velazquez (7), Mike Smith (7) and England’s Ryan Moore (7). Note, though, that Smith and Moore have ridden more losing favorites (11 each) than winners in that time. Geroux has let down the crowd only once in the same span and has contenders this time in Zozos, Timberlake (in the Juvenile) and Idiomatic (in Saturday’s Distaff).

Trainers: Since 2014, Chad Brown has 14 Breeders’ Cup wins, ahead of Bob Baffert (9), Brad Cox (9), Europe’s Aidan O’Brien (8) and Charlie Appleby (8) and Todd Pletcher (7). Those trainers will saddle five of the 14 Breeders’ Cup morning-line favorites, and other big-name trainers will send out many of the other favorites. As with the best jockeys, there’s no edge in betting on famous trainers; you’re more likely to get fair odds on a horse with less-well-known Cherie DeVaux (She Feels Pretty in Friday’s Juvenile Fillies Turf), Toru Hayashi (Songshine in Saturday’s Mile) or Adam West (Live in the Dream in Saturday’s Turf Sprint).

Experts: If you aren’t a confident handicapper, help yourself to experts’ picks. The Southern California News Group papers print Bob Mieszerski’s graded handicap every racing day and offer 1-2-3 picks from Mieszerski, Art Wilson, Eddie Wilson and Terry Turrell online and in the free Ponies Express newsletter. Art Wilson will have Breeders’ Cup selections in his Friday horse racing column.

Pay attention when one handicapper has a different opinion than the rest, because this may reflect the kind of unique insight upon which smart bets are made.

Here are my picks. For each race, I’ve listed two horses. The first is my choice for the likeliest winner, and the second is the “don’t forget where you heard it” price horse.

Friday

Juvenile Turf Sprint: Big Evs, Cherry Blossom

Juvenile Fillies: Tamara, Esprit Enchante

Juvenile Fillies Turf: She Feels Pretty, Hard to Justify

Juvenile: Muth, Fierceness

Juvenile Turf: Unquestionable, My Boy Prince

Saturday

Dirt Mile: Cody’s Wish, Zozos

Filly & Mare Turf: Inspiral, With the Moonlight

Filly & Mare Sprint: Goodnight Olive, Clearly Unhinged

Mile: Songline, Gina Romantica

Distaff: Clairiere, Wet Paint

Turf: Auguste Rodin, Onesto

Classic: Ushba Tesoro, Proxy

Turf Sprint: Live in the Dream, Bradsell

Sprint: Speed Boat Beach, Gunite

My boldest shot at a big payoff could come in Saturday’s late pick-five, which challenges bettors to connect the winners of races 7 through 11 – the Distaff, Turf, Classic, Turf Sprint and Sprint – with a 50-cent minimum cost per combination. Last year at Keeneland, perfect tickets in the late pick-five paid only $353.63. But the two years before at Del Mar and Keeneland, they paid $48,292.10 and $81,406.70.

Among the many bets available, that pick-five is the best way I can see to take advantage of my strongest opinions across the two days of the Breeders’ Cup. The key is the Classic: I like Ushba Tesoro (4-1 on the original morning line, a winner of six consecutive races capable of producing Japan’s latest big-race breakthrough) and Proxy (12-1, an upset threat after a deceptively strong race in New York).

Whether it’s straight win bets, multi-horse bets or a variety of bets, making a few good choices from the overwhelming menu of wagers offered at Santa Anita the next two days is the best way to make your strongest picks pay off.

Kevin Modesti, a journalist in Los Angeles, has covered more than 20 Breeders’ Cups. He’s on X at @KevinModesti.