Chris Perkins: Things to watch for in Miami Dolphins-Kansas City Chiefs matchup
Excitement is building for Sunday morning’s international showdown between the AFC East first-place Miami Dolphins (6-2) and AFC West first-place Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) in Frankfurt, Germany.
The Dolphins’ injury return list is important.
The Tyreek Hill factor is real.
So is the Tua Tagovailoa factor.
And of course, the Patrick Mahomes factor.
There are so many things to consider, so many angles to monitor, so many matchups to analyze that it’s tough to cover them all.
For example, this game could have Super Bowl implications when you consider it could be a tiebreaker for home-field advantage in the playoffs.
Also, a Dolphins victory could set the stage for Miami to carry a ton of momentum into the bye week, and start its season-ending eight-game stretch as the AFC favorites.
With that in mind, here are some things to watch for in Sunday’s game:
Tua Tagovailoa and Patrick Mahomes
They’re two of the leading MVP candidates and their performances will go a long way toward determining whether their team wins. If Tagovailoa (18 touchdowns, seven interceptions, 108.8 passer rating) stays upright, most likely he’ll pick the Chiefs’ defense apart with wide receivers Tyreek Hill (1,014 yards, eight touchdowns) and Jaylen Waddle (480 yards, three touchdowns). Pressure Tagovailoa, such as Buffalo and Philadelphia did, and it’s a different story, so that will likely be part of Kansas City’s strategy. Miami counters that with quickly-delivered passes that are part of Tagovailoa’s game and part of their normal offense. Often, those turn into big plays.
Mahomes (15 touchdowns, eight interceptions, 95.8 passer rating), on the other hand, can excel in the pocket or off-platform, meaning on the run, or using a three-quarter arm motion, or throwing underhanded, or against his body’s momentum, etc…
Tight end Travis Kelce (583 yards, four touchdowns) is Mahomes’ favorite target, but there’s not much that scares a defense beyond Kelce. Miami will seek to use its secondary of cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard, nickel Kader Kohou, and safeties Jevon Holland and DeShon Elliott to lockdown the Chiefs’ passing options. Once that’s done, and while it’s being done, the Dolphins will attack Mahomes with edge rushers Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb.
If Mahomes is deadly accurate with his passes, he has a chance. If he’s even a little bit loose with his passes however, the Dolphins’ secondary could feast on his mistakes.
Tyreek Hill
Hill must be watched for a few reasons. He’s got more receiving yards (1,014) through eight games than anyone in the Super Bowl era, and he’s on pace to surpass his personal goal of an NFL-record 2,000 yards receiving. On top of that, Kansas City, of course, is his former team, the team where he was a fifth-round pick in 2016, and where he was a four-time All Pro, six-time Pro Bowl selection and Super Bowl champion.
The Chiefs are also the team that traded Hill to Miami in March 2022 because it could no longer afford his high salary along with many others. In light of that, there might be a bit of extra motivation for Hill to win this game. He’s capable of changing the outcome.
Dolphins’ health
Center Connor Williams (groin), left tackle Terron Armstead (knee), right guard Robert Hunt (hamstring) and tight end Durham Smythe (ankle) might be the ones to watch most closely. It seems cornerback Xavien Howard and safety Jevon Holland (concussion) are trending toward playing.
If the Dolphins have Williams, Armstead, Hunt and Smythe you’d have to think Tagovailoa will be protected fairly well and the run game gets a boost. Anything short of that and it’s about covering for the weak links.
Jalen Ramsey, Xavien Howard, Jevon Holland and the secondary
Having Ramsey, Howard and Holland on the field with Kohou and Elliott is an exciting prospect for the nickel defense, the defense overall, and the team overall. It’d be great if it happens.
These five guys have the potential to change games.
Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio said recently that the five-member secondary (in the nickel defense) needs almost as much time together as the five-man starting offensive line. Fangio said the defensive backs move more independently of each other and in a much larger space, but they still need to get to know each other’s movements and how to play off of each other. Sunday could finally be the start of that process for the Dolphins’ five-man nickel secondary, a group that could quickly become the NFL’s best.
Playing in Germany
Miami gets an edge here. This is a neutral site game. It should have been at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, where it would be tough to visualize the Dolphins winning. Kansas City is tough to beat at home. Plus, at Arrowhead the Chiefs are comfortable and Miami would be uncomfortable. In Germany, both teams are less than comfortable. That’s a lost advantage for Kansas City, and a gained one for the Dolphins, even if it’s just a slight advantage.