How the Michigan scandal could impact Pac-12 football, and what it says about the future of the sport

Although unprecedented in nature and riveting in detail, the Michigan sign-stealing controversy is unfolding thousands of miles from the Pac-12 footprint and easy for fans to follow on merely a cursory basis.

After all, the conference’s only known connection to the spy ring is largely immaterial: Connor Stalions, Michigan’s suspended analyst, purchased tickets to the Oregon-Washington game last season in Eugene. (He then transferred the seats, which were on the visiting side of the stadium, to another individual.)

While the Big Ten roils and NCAA investigators descend on Ann Arbor, the Pac-12 collectively has a playoff berth to secure, a Heisman Trophy to win, a legal battle to resolve and transition plans to make.

There’s no reason for stakeholders to concern themselves with the actions of a disgraced analyst for a football program in another conference.

Or is the Michigan mess worth more than a glance at the latest headlines?

The Hotline is here to offer a counter-narrative: There’s a scenario — multiple scenarios, actually — in which the scandal could have significant repercussions on the West Coast.

Collateral damage is possible. So, too, are attendant benefits. Shall we plunge into the Wolverine wormhole and count the ways?

(And yes, there’s a larger point to be made.)

— The most immediate issue is Michigan’s status as a contender for the Big Ten title and berth in the College Football Playoff. Those twin pursuits are deeply interconnected given the role conference championships play in the CFP selection process.

The NCAA’s investigation into the sign stealing is expected to last months — shocking! — but the Big Ten could move on the matter before the conference championship on Dec. 2, using its sportsmanship policy as grounds for action.

What if the Wolverines are banned from the event, thereby undermining their case for the CFP? What if their wins are stripped bare of legitimacy? What if a team that’s otherwise worthy of a CFP bid is removed from the calculation?

The impact on the Pac-12, which has two contenders, Washington and Oregon, is obvious.

But the ramifications out west hardly end there, folks.

— Let’s say the NCAA uncovers enough evidence to hammer the Wolverines for rules violations. The sanctions could impact Michigan’s competitiveness in 2024, potentially widening the path through the Big Ten — and into the expanded CFP — for the four West Coast teams set to join the league next summer: USC, UCLA, Washington and Oregon.

— What if the scandal prompts Wolverines coach Jim Harbaugh to leave Ann Arbor for the NFL, either because he’s forced out by the school or decides life at his alma mater is simply untenable? The Raiders have an opening, in case you missed the news, and Harbaugh owes his coaching career to the franchise. (Al Davis gave Harbaugh his first full-time coaching job back in 2002.)

— If Michigan conducts a coaching search, Washington’s Kalen DeBoer surely would be near the top of the wish list. DeBoer is from South Dakota, coached at Eastern Michigan and is underpaid in Seattle at $4.2 million per season. The Wolverines could double his salary without batting an eye. Would the Huskies be willing to match? Or would DeBoer leap at the chance to return to his Midwest roots?

— Let’s head deeper into the wormhole. What if Harbaugh leaves Michigan and quarterback J.J. McCarthy, a junior, follows his coach to the NFL. Suddenly, the Wolverines would need a starter for 2024. We can’t help but wonder if UCLA’s Dante Moore would be interested. The former five-star recruit has been demoted in Westwood, but he’s from Detroit and received a scholarship offer from the Wolverines in seventh grade. The transfer portal would facilitate a return home.

— In case that isn’t enough layers, let’s add one more: What if the scandal prompts Harbaugh to leave Michigan for the NFL, which leads to DeBoer leaving Washington for Michigan. The  Huskies would need a coach, and they might be tempted to look a few hours down I-5, to Corvallis. Oregon State’s Jonathan Smith learned the craft under Chris Petersen, first at Boise State and then for four seasons as Washington’s offensive coordinator. Surely, a vacancy in Seattle would be tempting, even for an OSU alumnus.

Now, let’s be fully transparent and crystal clear. Although every scenario listed above makes sense on a singular basis — why wouldn’t Michigan consider DeBoer or Moore consider Michigan? — this exercise is purely speculative.

For all we know, the scandal will pass without competitive repercussions for Michigan, without Harbaugh leaving Ann Arbor and without material implications for schools on the West Coast.

But the developments in the Big Ten provide a gateway to our broader point, which applies not only to this season but also to the post-Pac-12 world: The independence that once existed at the conference level is vanishing rapidly.

Combine every dynamic impacting major college football … from name, image and likeness and the transfer portal to changes in the sports-media landscape … from the legal challenges to the NCAA to the constitutional changes within the NCAA … from Power Five realignment to CFP expansion … combine them all, and it’s clear the sport has become increasingly interconnected.

A coaching change at one school affects the quarterback depth at another school.

A media deal signed by one league impacts the market value of another league.

A loss by one playoff contender changes the outlook for another playoff contender.

A lawsuit filed against the NCAA in one state affects rules governing every state.

A sign-stealing scandal in one conference impacts schools in another conference.

The Pac-12 will cease to exist next summer, at least in recognizable form. But as the schools go their separate ways, as they navigate complicated transitions, the forces governing the sport will push back — Newton’s third law, tweaked for realignment — and keep them forever interlocked.

When the 2024 season arrives, we’ll have four power conferences competing within the framework of one glorious, fascinating, inescapable mess.

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