College Football Week 10 Predictions and Best Bets

The first College Football Playoff rankings of the season were released Tuesday ahead of a Saturday slate that includes plenty of matchups between teams that made the initial top 25.

In the SEC, No. 14 LSU takes on No. 8 Alabama while No. 1 Georgia looks to extend its 25-game winning streak against No. 12 Missouri. The marquee Pac-12 game pits No. 5 Washington against No. 20 USC in a meeting between the reigning Heisman winner and the current favorite. In the Big 12, No. 23 Kansas State draws No. 7 Texas and No. 9 Oklahoma gets No. 22 Oklahoma State in the final installment of Bedlam before the Sooners leave the conference.

LSU-Alabama and Washington-USC, you have our attention.

No. 14 LSU vs. No. 8 Alabama

Spread: LSU +2.5 (+100) | Alabama -2.5 (-125)
Moneyline: LSU (+120) | ALA (-150)
Total: 61.5 – Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Saturday, Nov. 4 | 7:45 p.m. ET | CBS
Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium | Tuscaloosa, AL

The SEC West is the Crimson Tide’s for the taking if they win out, though a loss to the Tigers could complicate things. LSU beat ’Bama, 32–31, in overtime in Baton Rouge last season and that head-to-head win ended up deciding the division race.

The Tigers (6–2, 4–1 SEC) head to Tuscaloosa with the No. 1 offense in the country, as they lead the FBS in points (47.4) and yards (552.9) per game. LSU improved to 4–0 at Tiger Stadium last week with a 62–0 romp over Army, but it hasn’t traveled very well. Its two losses came against FSU on a neutral field and on the road to Ole Miss — and it took a fourth-quarter comeback to avoid an upset at Missouri.

The Tide (7–1, 5–0 SEC) hasn’t lost since the second week of September when Texas came to town, but it hasn’t been smooth sailing since, either. Alabama beat Texas A&M and Arkansas by less than a touchdown before rallying in the second half two weeks ago to beat Tennessee by two scores.

LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels got the best of Nick Saban’s defense before and this year’s offense has taken things up a level. Daniels is tied for the most passing touchdowns in the country (25), ranks fourth in passing yards (2,573) and first in yards per attempt (11.5) and is still in the top 10 in completion percentage (73.1). Mailk Nabers leads the country in receiving yards (981), Brian Thomas is tied for the most touchdown catches (11) and the team still averages better than 200 rushing yards per game, thanks to the legs of Logan Diggs and Daniels.

Alabama’s defense is built to slow down high-flying offenses. Ole Miss scored a season-low 10 points in its lone loss to the Tide, a team that surrenders just 16.5 points per game and ranks among the leaders in sacks and tackles for loss. Dallas Turner, who’s recorded at least a half sack in six straight games, anchors that unit.

This version of Alabama is not set up to win an outright shootout with LSU, so it must keep the Tigers’ offense in check in order to have a chance considering that it has surpassed LSU’s average of 48 points once all season in a game against Middle Tennessee. Quarterback Jalen Milroe has thrown for multiple touchdowns in three straight games and he’s getting multiple receivers involved while Jase McLellan keeps on churning on the ground.

Teams have been able to run on LSU, which gave up over 300 yards on the ground to Ole Miss. In the Tigers’ two losses it took 45 points from the Seminoles and 55 points from the Rebels, so Alabama is well aware of what is necessary to beat this team.

The over is 8–0 in LSU games this season and 5–2–1 for Alabama. It feels realistic for the Crimson Tide to get to roughly 30 points at home against this defense and it’s hard to see LSU held under that mark for the second time this season the way its offense has been rolling.

Best Bet: Over 61.5 (-110)

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No. 5 Washington vs. No. 20 USC

Spread: Washington -3.5 (+100) | USC +3.5 (-125)
Moneyline: WAS (-150) | USC (+120)
Total: 76.5 – Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Saturday, Nov. 4 | 7:45 p.m. ET | ABC
Location: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum | Los Angeles, CA

The toughest and most important stretch of the Huskies’ season begins Saturday in Los Angeles. They passed their biggest test to date by beating Oregon at home, 36–33, in mid-October, but their final four games include three matchups with ranked opponents, two of which are on the road, and a rivalry game against Washington State.

The Trojans (7–2, 5–1 Pac-12) admittedly looked like a tougher draw before they went 2–2 in October with losses to Notre Dame and Utah that torpedoed their playoff hopes. Even still, USC is quarterbacked by reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams and has the No. 2 scoring offense in the country (45.9 points per game). The issue is that defense consistently allows its opponents to keep pace.

Washington (8–0, 5–0 Pac-12) had some close calls in the last two weeks against questionable competition. There was a 15–7 win over Arizona State in which Heisman frontrunner Michael Penix Jr. threw two interceptions and the team didn’t score an offensive touchdown and a 42–33 victory over Stanford last Saturday. Fifteen points against the Sun Devils was a season low and 33 allowed to the Cardinal tied a season-high.

Putting those two games aside, Penix leads the FBS in passing yards (2,945) and his top two targets, Rome Odunze (907) and Ja’Lynn Polk (836), are top 10 in receiving yards. The Huskies are one of nine teams that average better than 40 points per game, and their defense allows just over 20 on average. However, they’ve surrendered 30-plus points more often than not in Pac-12 play.

It took a monster fourth-quarter last week against Cal for the Trojans to avoid a three-game losing streak. And even though they completed the comeback, a 50–49 win over the Golden Bears doesn’t inspire confidence heading into a game against a top-five team. If USC is going to win, it needs to go blow for blow with the Huskies, which their offense might be able to do. UW ranks 116th nationally in passing yards allowed per game and Williams is second behind Penix in passing yards.

What this game will come down to is the ability to get stops. And the Huskies’ defense is better equipped to make that happen against the Trojans’ offense than the other way around. Neither team has fared well against the spread this year, but Washington (3–4–1) is still better than USC (2–7) in that regard.

Lincoln Riley’s team hasn’t covered the number in well over a month and lost the only other game it wasn’t favored in by 28. Take Kalen DeBoer’s team to take down the Trojans on the road and strengthen its playoff resume.

Best Bet: Washington -3.5 (+100)

College Football Betting Record: 13–7

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