Why Patriots Will Continue To Deal With Mac Jones’ Turnover Issues

Mac Jones does one thing better than any quarterback in the league: Throw interception-worthy passes. Yeah, it’s not a good thing.

Jones has 20 interception-worthy passes this season heading into Week 9. That means nearly 8% of the 25-year-old’s pass attempts are for the other team’s taking.

The Patriots head into Week 9 against the Washington Commanders with a 2-6 record and an offense that ranks seventh-worst in the NFL by DVOA. Only the New York Giants have a lower score-per-drive ratio than New England.

While it’s not a simple fix to make, eight weeks in, limiting the turnovers could be the difference between an absolute dud of a season and one that gives New England fans some type of hope. 

The Patriots have the fourth-worst turnover differential in the NFL at minus-6 and Jones has thrown a pick in six of eight games with eight interceptions in total (second most). It’s the “interception-worthy” stat, though, that tells us things could be even worse.

FTN Network’s Aaron Schatz, the creator of DVOA, said this trend from Jones is on-brand from what we have seen through three years so far.

“I don’t think the interception-worthy throws are going away for Mac Jones,” Schatz said. “He had 27 as a rookie and 19 last year. He’s always had a problem with it.”

Ahead of the matchup against the Commanders, most shops have the price on Jones’ interception at -120. Moving forward, especially with injury to his number one receiver Kendrick Bourne and lack of consistency from the rest of his weapons, I wouldn’t be surprised if Jones continues this trend. Keep an eye on how the market reacts — presumably raising this price on his pick prop.

If you’re wondering why they don’t just lean on the run game, Rhamondre Stevenson is one of the least explosive backs in the league this season, averaging 3.2 yards a carry. As a team, they average the fifth-fewest rushing yards a game at 84.4.

It’s not all bad news in New England, though. Schatz said the Patriots’ defense hasn’t been given enough praise for holding up its end of the bargain. While their success hasn’t been reflected in surface stats like points allowed per game, advanced stats like DVOA — where they rank 12th — tell the bigger story.

“The defense doesn’t look as good as it really has been. The Patriots have played the second-hardest schedule of opposing offenses this year,” Schatz said.

Even better, Belichick and company’s schedule gets easier the rest of the way, ranking third-toughest overall but 21st the rest of the way, according to Schatz. At this low point in the season, the Patriots have to give something fans can hold onto. Spoiler alert: It’s not Mac Jones and the offense.