Dobbs changed everything in 2022, yet the political environment remained the same. How can that be?

In the 2022 midterms, special elections were one of the klaxons alerting us to a changed political environment following the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in June. As a result of the decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, Democrats turned in a historic performance: They not only held the Senate but also gained a seat, and their losses in the House were far smaller than nearly all predictions.

And yet, when looking at the average Democratic performance in special elections, the overall picture barely budged with the inclusion of post-Dobbs specials, in part because there were only a handful of such races. But that aggregate number was still spot on. It indicated a slightly Republican environment, and Republicans indeed won the House popular vote by a small amount, about 3 percentage points. In other words, after Dobbs, everything changed, and yet nothing did. So what happened?