Chris Perkins: Dolphins’ eight-game finish will go long way in determining their playoff future

After another loss to a quality opponent people are starting to doubt whether this Dolphins team, and this Miami offense, are for real. Miami can still achieve its goals, but it has to finish the season strong and get home-field advantage in the playoffs.

The Miami Dolphins’ 21-14 loss to Kansas City in Germany dropped them to their collective knees, possibly even making them fall on their faces.

Forget about the final score and the admirable second-half defensive effort, this was a kick in the stomach for Miami.

But even if the Dolphins (6-3) have fallen, they can still get up and achieve their goals.

The key is getting home-field advantage in the playoffs, or, more realistically at this point, hosting at least one playoff game.

Neither of those scenarios appears promising after falling to the Chiefs — yet another loss to a quality team.

The Dolphins should want to avoid leaving Hard Rock Stadium for the playoffs. That would be a short-lived postseason outlook.

For Miami to change its outlook it’ll have to mount a furious eight-game sprint to the finish, starting after this week’s bye week, and it’ll have to mount that finish under the watchful eye of Hard Knocks and, now, a growing group of skeptics.

Yeah, people are starting to doubt whether this Miami team — and this Miami offense — is for real.

For the record, Miami is now a so-so 15-12 under coach Mike McDaniel with a poor minus-11 turnover margin. 

The Dolphins are 4-9 under McDaniel against teams that made the playoffs during the 2022 season, and worse, 2-8 on the road against teams that made the 2022 playoffs.

However, every goal remains in front of the Dolphins — the AFC East title, the best record in the conference, home-field advantage in the playoffs, a trip to the Super Bowl — and, yeah, dreaming big, the Super Bowl trophy.

Here’s how it breaks down: 

* The Dolphins have eight games remaining. Five games are at home where Miami is a sparkling 10-2 under McDaniel. Three games are on the road, where Miami is a miserable 5-10 under McDaniel; 

* Two of those three road games are dangerous; 

* The first road game to watch is the Black Friday/day-after-Thanksgiving game at the New York Jets; 

* The Jets have a tough defense, and the Dolphins will be playing a road game on a short week. That’s not usually a winning combination; 

* The second road game to watch is the New Year’s Eve game at Baltimore, always a tough place to play, and it’ll be a tougher place to play this year because the Ravens are good; 

* The remaining road game is at Washington (Dec. 3); 

* Of course, pulling back and looking at the complete eight-game picture you can’t overlook the season finale against Buffalo, or the Dallas game on Christmas Eve, both at Hard Rock Stadium. They’re both rough.

So, to recap, the Dolphins finish against Dallas (Dec. 24), at Baltimore (Dec. 31) and against Buffalo (Jan. 7). And you must be mindful of that Black Friday game at the Jets (Nov. 24), a road game on a short week. That’s four toughies among eight remaining games.

And Hard Knocks will be intrusively covering every second of that final march.

This is a tough stretch to digest because this Miami Dolphins team was supposed to be different. It was supposed to rack up big plays and big point totals with a wickedly creative offense, an offense that’s almost unstoppable. 

As the plan went, the dynamic offense would lead the way toward earning home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, thus paving a smooth-as-possible path to the Super Bowl.

Easy, right?

Well, none of that seems workable at this very moment, shortly after Miami’s wheezing, sputtering loss to Kansas City.

Miami’s offense averages 21.2 points per game against teams that made the 2022 playoffs, and 29.1 points per game against teams that didn’t make the 2022 playoffs.

And guess what?

Dallas, Baltimore and Buffalo all made the playoffs last season.

The Dolphins could be looking at a 13-4 finish — or they could be looking at a 10-7 finish.

The 13-4 finish could come with a AFC East title and at least one home playoff game. The 10-7 finish probably comes with a wild-card road game and the remaining playoffs games away from Hard Rock Stadium.

You know the numbers, you know what’s at stake.

This will be one heck of a finish for the Dolphins.