Forde-Yard Dash: Heisman Trophy Watch

As USC’s struggles continue, here are the top candidates to succeed Caleb Williams.

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where the smart alecks at New Mexico were on point Saturday night:

First Quarter: Culture of Excess

Second Quarter: Who will succeed Caleb Williams as the Heisman Trophy winner?

Caleb Williams’s chance to become the first repeat Heisman winner in nearly 50 years has all but disappeared, with USC losing three of its last four games and his turnovers increasing from five in 14 games last season to seven in 10 games this season. He’s still a great player and still might be the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL draft, but Archie Griffin will remain the only two-time Heisman winner for at least a while longer.

So, where will the voters turn? As usual, The Dash is in favor of expanding the list of candidates at this time of year instead of contracting it. The rundown starts with two players whose names end in x, and we’ve never had a Heisman winner with this distinction before.

Michael Penix Jr. (11), Washington quarterback. What’s to like: His team is undefeated, and he leads the nation in passing yards per game for the second straight season (355.7 this time around). What’s not to like: His touchdown-to-interception count was 16-to-2 in the first four games; since then it’s been 10-to-5. The road ahead: three difficult and emotionally charged games against the Pac-12’s No. 1 pass defense (Utah), and the two schools that are being left behind by the Huskies and others leaving the conference (Oregon State and Washington State). Penix will win if: Washington is still undefeated at the end of the night Dec. 1, after the Pac-12 championship game. Last Heisman winner from Washington: never.

Bo Nix (12), Oregon quarterback. What’s to like: He’s got the highest completion percentage in the nation (78.%, on pace to break Mac Jones’s FBS record of 77.4%) and the fewest interceptions for anyone who has thrown 300 or more passes (two). And the Ducks are 8–1 and ranked No. 6. What’s not to like: very little, other than an inability to convert three key fourth downs in the loss to Washington. The road ahead: a vulnerable USC defense, a trip to Arizona State (a graveyard in years past for the Ducks, but unlikely this time around) and the rivalry grudge match with Oregon State. Nix will win if: he and Oregon win out, which could include beating Penix and Washington in the Pac-12 championship game. Last Heisman winner from Oregon: Marcus Mariota, 2014.

J.J. McCarthy (13), Michigan quarterback. What’s to like: He’s leading an undefeated team that has put more than 40 points on the board in five straight games. Also ranks second nationally in pass efficiency, tied for second in yards per pass attempt and third in completion percentage. What’s not to like: Well, there is just a wee bit of controversy hovering over this Michigan team, which has cast some doubt on the individual performances. As one Heisman voter told Sports Illustrated last week, “I love J.J. But if it’s Cover 3 when he drops back and he knows it, that’s a big advantage.” The road ahead: two huge games against very good defenses (Penn State and Ohio State) and one against Maryland. McCarthy will win it if: the Wolverines win out, he’s spectacular and the voters don’t hold Connor Stalions against him. Last Heisman winner from Michigan: Charles Woodson, 1997.

Jayden Daniels (14), LSU quarterback. What’s to like: Statistically, he’s the best quarterback in the country at this point. He leads the nation in pass efficiency by more than 10 points and in total offense by 28 yards per game. His 684 rushing yards are second nationally among QBs. What’s not to like: The Tigers have already lost three games, relegating them to second-tier contender status. Only two of the last 15 Heisman winners had as many as three regular-season losses (Lamar Jackson, Robert Griffin III). Daniels will win it if: voters worry less about team performance than individual performance, and he keeps racking up huge games. Last Heisman winner from LSU: Joe Burrow, 2019.

Ollie Gordon II (15), Oklahoma State running back. What’s to like: He leads the nation in rushing after getting a total of only 19 carries the first three games of the season. Gordon’s rise to prominence has coincided with the Cowboys’ five-game winning streak after a 2–2 start. His 7.04 yards per carry lead all backs who have had at least 140 carries. What’s not to like: He’s a running back in a quarterback world and was late to the publicity party. With two early losses, Oklahoma State is outside the playoff race. Gordon will win it if: he continues to put up huge numbers, the Cowboys continue winning all the way through the Big 12 championship game and some QBs falter. Last Heisman winner from Oklahoma State: Barry Sanders, 1988.

Jordan Travis (16), Florida State quarterback. What’s to like: He’s flawlessly led an undefeated team and continued to produce big numbers, despite injuries that have kept top receiver Keon Coleman out of one game and No. 2 target Johnny Wilson out of three. His 19-to-2 touchdown-to-interception count is the best ratio on this list other than Nix’s 25-to-2. What’s not to like: His numbers don’t pop the way some others on this list do. He’s just 25th nationally in pass efficiency, for example. Travis will win it if: he keeps playing well, the Seminoles keep winning and some other quarterbacks lose or play poorly. Last Heisman winner from Florida State: Jameis Winston, 2013.

Marvin Harrison (17), Ohio State wide receiver. What’s to like: An argument can be made that he is simply the best player in the sport, and he’s playing on an undefeated team. Harrison is tied for second nationally in touchdown catches with 10 and ranks third nationally in yards per reception among players with at least 50 catches at 17.58. That’s despite playing with a less-than-vintage Ohio State quarterback. What’s not to like: A receiver usually needs overwhelming numbers to be in contention, and Harrison’s are not there as of now. Defenses and conservative QB play have all but taken him out of three games, against Indiana, Notre Dame and Rutgers. Harrison will win it if: he goes thermonuclear down the stretch, the Buckeyes win out and some QBs on this list play poorly. Last Heisman winner from Ohio State: Troy Smith, 2006.

Jaxson Dart (18), Mississippi quarterback. What’s to like: Dart is leading a top-10, one-loss team. He’s sixth nationally in total offense yards per play at 8.44, ahead of Nix. He was outstanding in the victory over LSU and against Texas A&M on Saturday. What’s not to like: Is he even the best player on his own team, or is that running back Quinshon Judkins? His numbers don’t compare favorably to some of the others on this list. Dart will win it if: he plays great in leading an Ole Miss upset of Georgia on Saturday, then carries that forward through the rest of the season. A big showing in the Egg Bowl Thanksgiving showcase game would help as well. Last Heisman winner from Mississippi: never.

Drake Maye (19), North Carolina quarterback. What’s to like: He’s third in the nation in total offense while leading a 7–2 team that remains in contention for an ACC championship game berth. If you care about pro potential, he’s challenging Williams’s status as the lock No. 1 NFL pick. What’s not to like: Against an underwhelming schedule, Maye hasn’t produced any monster games against high-caliber competition. He’s not running as effectively this season. He’s also flown under the radar, and the Tar Heels have a couple of upset losses. Maye will win it if: North Carolina gets into the ACC championship game and upsets the Seminoles, and Maye puts up monster stats the rest of the way—and even then he will need help elsewhere. Last Heisman winner from North Carolina: never.

Jalen Milroe (20), Alabama quarterback. What’s to like: He’s come on with a flourish as the season has gone along, leading the one-loss Crimson Tide into playoff contention. His passing has improved, but running for 155 yards and four touchdowns against LSU on Saturday night was the real eye-opener. A top-10 Alabama team is always going to have a Heisman candidate. What’s not to like: Milroe was shaky enough early that he was benched and didn’t play in an ugly win over South Florida. His raw passing numbers do not stack up well (fewer than 2,000 yards through the air and 13 passing TDs). Milroe will win it if: he has four more games like the one against LSU, other players struggle and voters reflexively put an Alabama player on their ballots. Last Heisman winner from Alabama: Bryce Young, 2021.

And in the interest of being all-inclusive, The Dash would like to call attention to two other players from undefeated teams who are having great seasons: Quarterback Kaidon Salter of Liberty is third nationally in pass efficiency and fourth in total offense yards per play; James Madison defensive end Jalen Green leads the nation in sacks (15.5) and tackles for loss (21). Unfortunately, Green sustained a season-ending injury Saturday in the Dukes’ victory over Georgia State.