Michigan State’s First-Game Upset Is a Warning

Who said the first day of men’s college basketball wouldn’t be exciting?

A slate much-maligned by everyone from casual fans to diehards produced the season’s first epic moment on opening night when James Madison shocked No. 4 Michigan State in overtime. Few things should be truly shocking in early college basketball given the vast roster turnover across the landscape, but this result resonates: A Michigan State team that some believe is Tom Izzo’s last, best chance to win another national championship in East Lansing got outplayed for 45 minutes by a mid-major, albeit one picked to win its league that has legitimate Cinderella aspirations on paper.

Perhaps as notable as anything was how Michigan State lost. The sales pitch on the Spartans in the preseason was a mixture of roster continuity (four starters, including star backcourt duo AJ Hoggard and Tyson Walker, returned) and impressive young talent (its 2023 high school recruiting class ranked in the top five nationally). But talent-wise, MSU couldn’t overwhelm the Dukes. They were outrebounded by a smaller opponent and lacked the firepower to pull away after taking a lead in the second half.

Plus, in key late-game situations the Spartans looked shell-shocked rather than like the team that had played in plenty of big games together. It’s easy enough to blame the team’s 1-of-20 effort from beyond the arc, but outside of fifth-year Walker, the Spartans just didn’t seem all that dangerous offensively: MSU’s four other starters shot just 8-of-36 from the field. And even Walker left some valuable points at the free throw line late as JMU tried to assert control. There was lots of standing around waiting for Walker to bail the other four players out in key late-game possessions, hardly the hallmark of one of the nation’s supposed elite teams.

And as the Spartans teetered, James Madison made clutch play after clutch play on the road. A school whose undefeated football team has earned plenty of attention this fall flexed its muscles on the hardwood in a big way Monday. T.J. Bickerstaff delivered an icy midrange bucket to tie late in regulation, and Terrence Edwards issued quite the dagger with a three that pushed JMU’s lead to four late in overtime. This is a team no one will want to see in a 5-vs.-12 or 4-vs.-13 game come March, and a win like this one could open the door for a rare at-large bid from the otherwise one-bid CAA.

This season-opening disaster doesn’t have to define Michigan State. Do its work in a difficult nonconference schedule and navigate the Big Ten slate well, and this result will be a mere footnote in what has a chance to be a loaded résumé. The problem: Right now, this looks far more like the Michigan State that has lost 13 games in three straight seasons than the group that many pegged to take a huge leap into national contender status.

Those groups were solid but clearly limited, lacking the depth and dynamism necessary to push for the Big Ten titles that Izzo has won 10 times. Those same performers are the ones who went 8-of-36 Monday night. For Michigan State to get serious about reaching its lofty preseason goals, it needs its youth movement to get ready ahead of schedule. And Izzo seems to realize that, calling out his veterans postgame and saying, “let the controversy begin,” regarding freshmen like Coen Carr and Jeremy Fears Jr. potentially usurping veteran starters.

That’d be a departure from traditional Izzo ways (remember when he played senior Ben Carter over freshman Jaren Jackson Jr. in an NCAA tournament loss to Syracuse?) but might be what this team needs long term. The reality is this: There’s a clear ceiling for Michigan State when it rides the veterans that has led it to mediocrity by Spartans standards. Turning this ship around means investing big in this talented freshman class and letting them grow, even if it means some additional early growing pains. No. 2 Duke looms in a week, as does No. 12 Arizona on Thanksgiving. If Izzo is serious about elevating this team from good again to great, let the likes of Fears, Carr and Xavier Booker play through mistakes and live with the results. This shocking early defeat is a clear signal: Just running it back with the veterans won’t be enough.