Heisman Watch: Nix closes on Penix just as Oregon shadows Washington
Nix is playing well and in position to steal the Heisman just as his team is poised to grab the Pac-12 title from Washington.
Welcome to our weekly look at the Pac-12’s leading Heisman Trophy candidates via an assessment of the top players in the conference. Consider this one Heisman voter’s view of the landscape. The rankings are based on individual performance, value to the team and quality of competition. And yes, we consider defensive players.
One notable aspect of Oregon quarterback Bo Nix’s pursuit of the Heisman Trophy is how closely it tracks the Ducks’ quest for the Pac-12 title and potential berth in the College Football Playoff.
Early-season attention but not the favorite.
High-quality play on a weekly basis.
Impressive performance at Washington but not quite good enough.
Post-Washington dominance and November momentum.
That trajectory describes Nix’s individual play and Oregon’s collective performance. And now, with three weeks remaining in the regular season, both player and team are ideally positioned to reach their goals.
The Ducks are one game behind UW and would clinch a spot in the Pac-12 championship game by sweeping their final three games (USC, Arizona State and Oregon State). Meanwhile, Nix is a half-step behind Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. in the Heisman race.
Penix remains the betting favorite at 1.5-to-1, according to the latest odds published by BetMGM, while Nix is 2-to-1 after a stellar performance against Cal. (He was 6-to-1 last week and 30-to-1 in the middle of October.)
Put another way: Both Nix and the Ducks are well within striking distance and could swipe both the conference title and the Heisman Trophy from their Seattle rivals in the Pac-12 title game on the first Friday of December.
Our latest Heisman Watch …
1. Washington QB Michael Penix Jr.
Last week: 1
Key stats: 355.7 yards per game, 9.9 yards per attempt, 26 touchdowns
Comment: Penix (256 yards passing) played a subordinate role to tailback Dillon Johnson (256 yards rushing) in the victory at USC. But the result knocked the Trojans back in the Pac-12 title race, knocked Caleb Williams out of the Heisman race and did nothing to undermine Penix’s position.
2. Oregon QB Bo Nix
Last week: 2
Key stats: 78.1% completions, 180.1 efficiency rating, 25 touchdowns
Comment: Nix was credited with an interception against Cal when a well-thrown ball bounced off the hands of receiver Tez Johnson. So if we’re being fair, he really has just one pick this season. The efficiency is simply off the charts.
3. USC QB Caleb Williams
Last week: 3
Key stats: 175.9 efficiency rating, 9.5 yards per attempt, 28 touchdowns
Comment: Williams’ key statistics (completion percentage, yards per attempt and efficiency) show year-over-year improvements, yet his Heisman campaign is lagging. Such are the perils faced by reigning winners in their quests to repeat: The standard for success is higher.
4. Arizona QB Noah Fifita
Last week: 5
Key stats: 76.2% completions, 164 efficiency rating, 14 touchdowns
Comment: Fifita’s numbers are extraordinary for a freshman, especially given that he spent the first month as a backup. For context, consider that he has one touchdown for every 13.5 passes attempted while Penix has one touchdown for every 12.5 attempts.
5. Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders
Last week: 4
Key stats: 320.2 yards per game, 70.1% completions, 24 touchdowns
Comment: The most telling stat of all is 46 — the number of sacks allowed by Colorado through nine games (by far the highest total in the Power Five). Sanders has performed superbly considering the constant pressure applied by defenses and the absence of an effective running game.
6. Oregon WR Troy Franklin
Last week: 6
Key stats: 105.1 yards per game, 16.3 yards per catch, 10 touchdowns
Comment: Franklin had just six catches and one touchdown in the blowout of Cal and played a secondary role to fellow receiver Tez Johnson. But he remains the toughest matchup in the conference and the focus of every opponent’s attention.
Also considered (alphabetically): Arizona State WR Elijhah Badger, OSU LB Andrew Chatfield, Arizona WR Jacob Cowing, Oregon DL Brandon Dorlus, Utah DE Jonah Elliss, OSU OL Taliese Fuaga and Joshua Gray, Stanford K Joshua Karty, UCLA Edge Laiatu Latu, Arizona LB Jacob Manu, OSU TB Damien Martinez, Arizona WR Tetairoa McMillan, Washington WR Rome Odunze and Cal TB Jaydn Ott
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline
*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.