Oscar Experts Typing: Who will round out the Best Actor lineup?

Welcome to Oscar Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Oscar race — via Slack, of course. This week, we discuss Best Actor — now with campaigning!

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! It’s Friday and already it feels like the actors’ strike seems like a distant memory. Concluded this week, it took all of a few minutes for the publicity machine to get up and running, pushing our favorite awards season contenders officially into campaign mode. In few categories is that more welcome — and was it more quickly felt — than Best Actor. Leonardo DiCaprio is expected to attend an academy screening on Sunday for “Killers of the Flower Moon.” Joaquin Phoenix will be at the premiere of “Napoleon” next week. Bradley Cooper has an interview scheduled with “CBS News Sunday Morning” — although the official press release calls him merely the “Maestro” writer and director. Focus Features has set a press day next week for “The Holdovers” with Paul Giamatti. Netflix planning a hard push for Colman Domingo as “Rustin” gets ready to hit the streamer. I personally haven’t heard word of Cillain Murphy perfecting his thousand-yard stare as he gears up for press nor of plans for Jeffrey Wright, but I’m sure those are already in the works. (“American Fiction” doesn’t debut for another month, so they’ve got some time.) You’re not usual one to care about campaigns or any of this ancillary stuff, but I always think it matters — voters want to support actors they love, moments that feel significant, and sometimes that means the actual movie and performance runs second. So I guess to start our column this week, I wonder if any of this does matter when it comes to Best Actor. This already feels like a category with six contenders for five slots: Murphy, DiCaprio, Cooper, Giamatti, Domingo and Wright. That’s the order of preference in our odds, with Wright far behind Domingo in sixth place. I disagree dot gif with that, since I feel like Wright is not only a strong contender to get nominated but to win. I have had him in for a while, flip-flopping my final spot between Giamatti and Domingo. Earlier this week, I finally put Giamatti back in at the expense of the “Rustin” star, in part because Domingo is perhaps the actor here who would have most benefited from a robust campaign run. (If there had been no actors’ strike, it’s easy to imagine him having been all over Telluride, Toronto and other regional festivals over the last two months.) But now, with the strike over, I’m back to wavering. Even I can’t be silly enough to make another switch already, but I’m obviously thinking about ways to get Domingo back into my picks. But if I did that, who would go? Giamatti? DiCaprio again, after I famously booted him earlier? Joyce, the real question is how can I make six equal five when all are deserving? OK, no, the realest question is: Do you think the odds are right about Wright, or does Best Actor end up with five guys from five Best Picture nominees?

joyceeng61: Even if the strike hadn’t ended, we all know you’d slide Domingo right back in there next week when “Rustin” hits Netflix anyway. Now you have even more reason to. Domingo will for sure be everywhere next week and then roll right into “The Color Purple” press. Can’t stop, won’t stop. It’s not that I think campaigning doesn’t matter at all — it is obviously a factor and Frances Fisher can attest it works! — it’s that I don’t think it’s hugely determinative like you and a lot of people do. I also don’t think we should demand actors, in particular, to campaign and dismiss their chances if they don’t when we’ve seen people win with virtually no campaigning and people lose after going to the opening of every envelope in history. And if you know anything about Murphy, you’d know that my guy has no interest in this pomp and circumstance and just wants to chillax in Ireland, and I love that for him. As I’ve said before, I think “American Fiction” is under-predicted across the board because it was totally off the radar before its People’s Choice Award victory in Toronto, so now it has to play catch-up. And as we know, many people do not update frequently or at all (there are probably predictions that still have Lily Gladstone in supporting). Wright, on paper, also has the less baity role than Domingo does, and it’s no secret how well biopic “transformations” do in this category. But I expect “American Fiction” to rise in the coming weeks as it continues to screen. Everyone I know who’s seen it loves it and it just garnered the endorsement of Paul Schrader as well. Cord Jefferson has been pulling a Martin Scorsese and carrying promo on his back, but now he has relief pitchers in his very personable cast. I think Wright will be great on the trail — he’s a widely respected actor and this is his first serious Oscar play after 30-plus years in the biz. And if he wins, he’d just need a Grammy to EGOT. One person I think campaigning would help is the person behind Wright in the odds, Andrew Scott. “All of Us Strangers” also doesn’t come out for another month. And you know Film Twitter will eat up this campaign.

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Christopher Rosen: “All of Us Strangers” definitely needs the juice and there is arguably plenty of time for it. But it’s a small, quiet movie and Scott is more of a fulcrum for the other performers on which to pivot. So while I agree many on Film Twitter will be into his run through the season, I also worry that the movie might get crushed by not just by fellow late-season debuts “The Iron Claw,” “Napoleon,” and “American Fiction,” but also some divisive takes within the FT community. “Strangers” isn’t as divisive as my fave “Saltburn” but it’s close. Speaking of: before the season, Barry Keoghan was a popular pick in Best Actor and then the movie premiered and he wasn’t. Keoghan was out there in New York on Thursday night for a screening, however, and he absolutely gives one of the most interesting performances of the whole year. People seem a little triggered by “Saltburn” because Emerald Fennell does this thing where she has empathy for the rich assholes the movie glories in taking down and also understands that Keoghan’s Oliver isn’t as righteous as people might hope. So I’m not surprised it has struck a nerve among FT coastal types, but that’s what makes me love it all the more. Do you think Keoghan has an outside shot here? Maybe Globes, BAFTA, Oscar?

joyceeng61: Keoghan is someone for whom I think campaigning wouldn’t be a massive factor other than it’s obviously nice to see him out there and know he’ll be serving looks. He’s coming off his maiden nomination for a fan-favorite performance, he’s “hot” right now, and if you stan his turn as Oliver and “Saltburn” in general, you’re gonna vote for him regardless. He’s not really a filler nominee in the fourth or fifth spot, you know? I have him at the Globes, now with six spots, and I suppose he can be a BAFTA jury pick, but the Oscars will be tough with so many strong(er) films, bigger names and more traditional Oscar-y performances in the mix. Not that it matters and we’ll never know, but I can see him not be top 10 by the end. You’ve already mentioned Phoenix. We also have “Past Lives” fave Teo Yoo, the SPC-backed Anthony Hopkins for “Freud’s Last Session” and Kôji Yakusho, who’ll probably get critics’ citations for “Perfect Days.” “The Iron Claw” also held its premiere this week in the Von Erichs’ Dallas hometown and people cried. It feels like it was just yesterday we were talking about Zac Efron and “The Greatest Beer Run Ever,” but maybe he’ll wrestle his way into the conversation now.

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Christopher Rosen: The greatest beer run was the friends we made along the way. Efron would be fun, for sure — I would consider it a makeup nomination for “Neighbors 2” — but while I know he’s the lead of “The Iron Claw,” I have anecdotally seen way more juice for Jeremy Allen White and Harris Dickinson (remember when I had him in for “Blitz,” FYC at the 2025 Oscars?) I guess let’s end back at the start. While I’m so incredibly fickle here to a fault, one thing I haven’t changed since early October is that I have Cooper winning for “Maestro.” I don’t need to type again how he was robbed for “A Star Is Born,” and we know he doesn’t necessarily love the campaign trail. Last time, however, he mainly focused on his directing prowess instead of his performance. This year, I feel like the two are inextricably linked. What I’m getting at is that in terms of momentum and timing, having Cooper out there now as “Maestro” gets ready to make its mark on the public positions him really well — and the fact that Cooper hasn’t had to spend two months already talking about “Maestro” maybe means his tour stops and interviews will have a crisper edge to them. Joyce, it’s way too early to make a pick here — and I could make a case for any of the potential nominees — but where do you stand in terms of who might win when we hit March?

joyceeng61: No one needs me to tell them almost everyone and their mother had Cooper penciled in for a win the second “Maestro” was announced. The performance checks a lot of boxes and, as we’ve discussed, he’s leveled up behind the camera as well (though I don’t have him getting into directing). There’s, of course, the “overdue” argument, even though more than half of his nominations are not for acting. Given we know what kind of performance voters drift towards in this category, Cooper feels like the safest pick, but he’s not even in second in the odds right now, and you at one point had excluded him completely. But maybe it’s just your fellow “A Star Is Born” stans managing expectations after getting burned last time.

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