California needs a smarter approach to fight crime, based on evidence not ideology
A fundamental role of government is protecting public safety, so recent spikes in crime have understandably sparked a debate about police funding and prosecutorial strategies. Surveys show that Californians are understandably concerned about street crime. Media reports of high-profile robberies have also driven the perception that crime is out of control.
Yet the statistics tell a more complex story. According to a San Francisco Chronicle analysis of the latest FBI data, “homicides jumped by nearly a third in 2020 — the single biggest year-over-year increase in more than a century — and rose slightly again in 2021.” Then they dropped 6 percent in 2022 as the overall crime rate dropped 1.6 percent.
California’s overall violent crime rate increased since 2020 because of a 24-percent spike in aggravated assaults. That brings California’s violent crime rate to the highest level since 2008, although it is less than half its peak in 1992, per the report. California’s crime rate hit a half-century low in 2014, but then increased. Property crimes are a fraction of what they were in the late 1970s, but also spiked.
Of course, crime rates vary dramatically by region. According to a Public Policy Institute of California report last month, violent crime rates in Orange, Imperial, San Diego and Ventura counties are half those in the San Joaquin Valley. Violent crime actually is down in the state’s biggest cities this year.
The issue is complicated by COVID-19, which led to crime spikes that wreaked havoc with annual trends. For some good news that points to a safer future, PPIC found dramatic drops in crime rates among the younger generation.
What do we make of all of this?
California does have a crime problem. Public concern is generally backed up by the data — even if the robbery problem is not as big of a statistical issue as news reports suggest. Unfortunately, our elected officials are stuck in the rut of debating police staffing levels and arguing about sentencing guidelines. Those policies matter, but many factors also come into play.
A 2020 New Yorker article looked at myriad studies about the causes of crime and found many potential reasons for changing crime rates. Few criminologists could pinpoint a single cause that accounted for more than a third of the changing crime rate. “It’s surprisingly hard to say what makes crime go up or down,” the article concluded.
From our perspective, as the state re-evaluates recent justice-reform policies, it should avoid a rush to reinstate 1990s-era “tough-on-crime” laws. They led to unforeseen consequences including skyrocketing incarceration rates and the undermining of rights, as police agencies embraced civil-asset-forfeiture policies that let them take private property without due process. Policymakers should try being deliberate and thoughtful about what makes sense, what ensures justice and what, if any, criminal justice policies need adjustment.
California also should focus on time-tested community oriented policing strategies that go beyond simply throwing more money at police departments (which often use the extra funds on unnecessary equipment and higher wages and benefits). The trends “are less about the raw numbers of police officers and more about thoughtful, coordinated policies to deter and respond to those crimes,” argued Jim Newton in a CalMatters column.
Crime trends are complex. And so are the solutions. Lawmakers need to address this serious problem — but beware of politicians offering easy solutions.