Saturday Night Five: Washington clinches in Corvallis, Oregon rolls, WSU and Cal on the brink and possible policy change
The Huskies survived a close game at Oregon State to move within one game of a perfect record in conference play.
Instant reaction to Pac-12 developments on the field …
1. Purple Reign in evening rain
We’ll start at the top — the top of the Pac-12 standings and, perhaps, the top of the Pac-12 heap.
Washington survived a wet, rowdy environment in Corvallis and held on for a 22-20 victory over Oregon State, the winning margin courtesy of an OSU special teams mistake that resulted in a safety.
As a result, the Huskies have clinched the regular-season title and the No. 1 seed in the conference championship game in Las Vegas.
And they are one victory away from becoming the first team in the Pac-12 era to produce a 9-0 mark in conference play.
Since the conference expanded in 2011 with the additions of Colorado and Utah, 14 teams have finished with 8-1 records. Nobody has made it through nine games unscathed.
UW will be an overwhelming favorite at home Saturday against Washington State. (With much the same team, the Huskies demolished WSU last year in Pullman, 51-33.)
The victory Saturday night was comparable to UW’s other razor-close call, the 36-33 win over Oregon in October.
Granted, it didn’t have as many touchdowns or big plays; nor was it as well played. And in both cases, the Huskies lost momentum for long stretches of the second half.
But each time, they made just enough plays in the fourth quarter, on both sides of the ball, to escape.
When the College Football Playoff rankings are released Tuesday, UW could very well overtake Florida State for the No. 4 spot.
Not that it really matters. The CFP framework is effectively unchanged: The Huskies must win the Pac-12 championship to claim a berth in the semifinals.
2. The foe in Las Vegas
Washington’s opponent in the final Pac-12 title game will be either Oregon or Arizona.
The Ducks poleaxed Arizona State 49-13 while Arizona hammered Utah in what were essentially matchups of healthy teams against M*A*S*H units.
The Ducks (7-1) would earn a rematch with UW if they defeat Oregon State at home on Friday evening or if Arizona loses at Arizona State.
The Wildcats (6-2) need a victory over ASU and an Oregon loss to OSU in order to secure an unlikely berth in the championship game.
We like Arizona’s prospects in the Territorial Cup. The Sun Devils are beaten and battered, whereas Arizona is reasonably healthy (for late November), oozing confidence and loaded with playmakers.
But without an Oregon loss, the Wildcats are blocked from a trip to Las Vegas. And it’s difficult to envision the Ducks losing at home to Oregon State given what should be a massive disparity in states of mind and body.
The Ducks will be coming off a blowout victory; the Beavers, off a gutting loss.
The Ducks had a cakewalk in Tempe; the Beavers, a rock fight against UW.
And the game is in Eugene, where OSU hasn’t won since 2007.
3. On the brink
Two other Week 12 results carried postseason implications for the Pac-12.
While nobody clinched a bowl berth — there are seven eligible teams as of now — Washington State and Cal collected their fifth victories.
The Cougars walloped Colorado on Friday night in a performance that echoed their September success; the Bears methodically handled Stanford for their second consecutive win after a mid-season skid.
Both teams are one victory from bowl eligibility.
If the Cougars beat Washington in Seattle, they will qualify for the postseason for the eighth consecutive season (excluding 2020).
If the Bears beat UCLA in Pasadena, they will go bowling for the first time since 2019.
Both teams will be heavy underdogs in what should be emotional finales against ancient rivals going their separate ways in the realignment game.
4. Revisiting postseason policy
What if the Cougars and Bears lose their finales?
In some instances, there aren’t enough eligible teams (i.e., six wins) to fill all the bowl slots. So WSU and Cal might have a chance to keep playing with 5-7 records, right? Funny story …
Back in 2018, the Pac-12 approved a policy prohibiting 5-7 teams from participating in the postseason.
The decision was a bit mystifying: The conference proactively blocked teams from additional competition (and extra practices).
At the time, WSU coach Mike Leach called the decision “a solution in search of a problem.”
For the past five years, no Pac-12 team with a 5-7 record has been available for bowl vacancies.
But this year is unlike any other year, and the Pac-12 is revisiting the policy, according to a source familiar with the discussions.
That doesn’t mean the ban on 5-7 teams will be lifted. Nor does lifting the ban guarantee a berth for the 5-7 teams — there might not be any opportunities. But the conference is wise to reconsider its position.
Put another way: If Washington State has the opportunity to go bowling at 5-7 after everything the Cougars have been through, the Pac-12 would be dead wrong to stand in their way.
5. Oregon’s CFP hit
The Ducks handled their business in Tempe, but 100 miles down the freeway, their resume took a hit.
Utah’s loss at Arizona probably will lead to the No. 22 Utes dropping out of next week’s College Football Playoff rankings.
That could prove problematic for Oregon, because the selection committee uses victories over ranked teams as a way of differentiating between playoff contenders.
If the Ducks are a one-loss Pac-12 champion being evaluated against a one-loss champ from the ACC, SEC, Big Ten or Big 12, they will need the strongest resume possible.
The 35-6 victory at Utah won’t carry as much weight if the Utes aren’t in the top 25.
Oregon’s playoff profile would have been better served with a Utah win in Tucson. The Ducks didn’t play Arizona, so their resume wouldn’t have taken a hit had the Wildcats dropped out of the rankings.
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