Will Martin Scorsese finally win that elusive Best Picture Oscar bookend?
“Oppenheimer” may be top of the tree in our Oscars odds chart for Best Picture but Martin Scorsese‘s “Killers of the Flower Moon” is, and always has been, hot on its heels. The Apple TV+ movie premiered at the Cannes Film Festival this year before rolling out to theaters on October 20. Starring Leonardo DiCaprio, Robert De Niro, and Lily Gladstone, the film tells the true story of the Osage tribe murders in the USA in the 1920s.
“Killers of the Flower Moon” has been lauded as a historical epic that tells an important story and features excellent performances. Yet we are only predicting it will win one Oscar — Best Adapted Screenplay (Scorsese and Eric Roth adapted it from David Grann‘s non-fiction book of the same name). That suggests that “Killers of the Flower Moon” will be the latest in a long line of film to miss out on Best Picture.
Because here’s a surprising Oscars fact: only one Scorsese film has won Best Picture. That was “The Departed” in 2007, when the crime thriller beat fellow nominees “Babel,” “Letters From Iwo Jima,” “Little Miss Sunshine,” and “The Queen.” The film also won Best Director for Scorsese, the only time Scorsese has won that award, Adapted Screenplay for William Monahan, and Best Editing for Thelma Schoonmaker. “The Departed” is an excellent film but most film fans agree that it isn’t Scorsese’s best film.
One of the filmmaker’s first movies was “Mean Streets,” which was highly lauded but ultimately failed to secure any Oscar nominations. In 1977, “Taxi Driver,” perhaps Scorsese’s magnum opus, produced the first Best Picture nomination for a Scorsese film. That was also nominated for Best Actor for De Niro, Best Supporting Actress for Jodie Foster, and Best Original Score as well as Best Picture but it lost all races with “Rocky” winning the top prize. “Raging Bull” was nominated for eight Oscars in 1981, including Picture, Director, Actor for De Niro, and Supporting Actor for Joe Pesci. It won Best Actor and Best Editing (for Schoonmaker) but “Ordinary People” won Best Picture. In 1987, “The Color of Money” won Best Actor for Paul Newman but failed to even be nominated for Best Picture.
“Goodfellas” was nominated for six Oscars in 1991, including for Picture, Director, and Supporting Actor for Pesci. Pesci won but the film lost Best Picture to “Dances With Wolves.” “The Age of Innocence” secured five Oscar bids in 1994 but none of those bids were for Best Picture. “Gangs of New York” had a great year in 2003 with 10 nominations, including bids for Picture, Director, and Actor for Daniel Day-Lewis. But the film was snubbed in all categories with “Chicago” winning Best Picture. “The Aviator” then landed 11 nominations in 2005, winning five. However, “Million Dollar Baby” won Best Picture. “The Departed” then won in 2007 while “Hugo” reaped 11 nominations in 2012. “Hugo” won five of those bids but lost Best Picture to “The Artist.” In 2014, “The Wolf of Wall Street” was nominated for five awards including Picture, Director, and Actor for DiCaprio but it lost in all races with “12 Years a Slave” claiming Best Picture. And, in 2020, “The Irishman” scored 11 bids including Picture and Director. “Parasite” won Best Picture that year.
So, lots of nominations, lots of huge films with lasting legacies, and plaudits from fans, critics, and industry members alike. But only one Best Picture win. Could that change this year? “Killers of the Flower Moon” is predicted to win Adapted Screenplay, which is a good sign for the film. Out of the last 10 Best Picture winners, only two of them haven’t also won a writing award. They were “The Shape of Water” in 2018 and “Nomadland” in 2021. T
he fact that “Killers of the Flower Moon” is only predicted to win one other Oscar doesn’t necessarily harm its chances at a Best Picture win, either. “Spotlight” only won Original Screenplay and Picture in 2016, while “Argo” (2013), “12 Years a Slave” (2014), “Moonlight” (2017), “Green Book” (2019), “Nomadland” (2021), and “CODA” (2022) all won just three Oscars each in total. “Killers of the Flower Moon” would only need to land Production Design win or an Editing victory or a Sound triumph to match that. All of a sudden, it looks like a typical Best Picture winner in recent years.
What does go against it, however, is the power of “Oppenheimer.” At the moment, we are predicting Christopher Nolan‘s film will win Best Picture, Best Director for Nolan, Best Actor for Cillian Murphy, Best Supporting Actor for Robert Downey Jr, Best Cinematography, and Best Editing. The sheer volume and significance of those categories are impossible to ignore.
It remains to be seen if “Oppenheimer” will turn that theory into reality but if it does, that may spell the end of “Killers of the Flower Moon’s” Best Picture chances. Scorsese’s film should also be wary of other films, such as “The Holdovers,” which is a strong dark horse contender as we think it will win Original Screenplay and Supporting Actress for Da’Vine Joy Randolph. A writing win and a supporting acting win are a typical combination for a Best Picture winner. Best Picture winners such as “12 Years a Slave,” “Moonlight,” “Green Book,” “CODA,” and “Everything Everywhere All at Once” have all won those two awards, too.
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