You’re not imagining it: Holiday shopping season really did start earlier this year

But if we're buying now, will retailers pay later?

We are entering the official holiday shopping season. But, of course, if you’ve been in any stores — or even online — you know the holiday ads and sales have been going on for a while now.

A report out this month from McKinsey & Company confirms what most of us noticed. This unofficial holiday shopping season started earlier than last year’s — and will probably last longer.

According to McKinsey, shoppers are spreading out their holiday purchases this year. And one reason for that is because we can.

“Consumers, unlike last year, and a couple of years before, where they were worried that if they don’t get something, they’re not going to find it available given supply chain issues,” said Tamara Charm, a partner at McKinsey. “This year, consumers have the sense that there’ll be more available for more of the time. And they want to be really choiceful and thoughtful about what they’re gonna get and when they’re gonna get it.”

And they’re looking for deals, said Candace Corlett, president of WSL Strategic Retail. That’s because for many shoppers, money is a bit tight right now.

“49% of people tell us they have less money now than they did last year to spend on gifts,” Corlett said.

She pointed out younger consumers who may have otherwise splurged on holiday parties and gifts, are back to repaying their student loans.

Plus, everyone is dealing with inflation. So retailers, said Corlett, are asking a big question: “How can I be first out of the box and get the money that people have to spend on gifts?”

The answer? Sales and discounts, early and often, in store and online.

But, there’s another question. 

“If I’m buying holiday gifts for family in early November, because Amazon or Best Buy or Walmart has had some, you know, amazing Black Friday-like deal, has that just substituted purchases that I would have done in December?” said Chad Lusk, managing director at Alvarez & Marsal Consumer and Retail Group.

He warned that even if early numbers look good, they don’t speak for the whole shopping season.

“(They) can’t necessarily use that as an indication that we’re going to have a stronger season in aggregate, it just might be that I’m pulling demand ahead,” he said.

Lusk predicted we’ll get a better read on what the overall shopping season will look like after Black Friday weekend.