NFL bettors absolutely crush sportsbooks in Week 12
It’s rare that the stars align for the betting public, but over an extended Thanksgiving weekend of football that’s certainly what happened.
Following three Thanksgiving games (two big favorites in the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys won and covered) and the NFL’s first Black Friday game (Miami Dolphins crushing the New York Jets 34-13 as 9.5-point road favorites), many in the betting public likely had some extra cash for Sunday wagers. One Mississippi bettor at BetMGM who won a $530,000 bet on the 49ers -7 certainly had some more cash for Black Friday shopping.
Many of them wagered on favorites on Sunday … and the favorites delivered. NFL favorites went 9-2 against the spread on Sunday to bring the Week 13 mark to 11-3 overall, heading into Monday Night Football.
“I think the only two games to go our way were the Packers winning on Thursday and the Falcons today,” Chuck Esposito, sportsbook director at Station Casinos told For The Win via text. “One of the better pro football weekends of the year for the players.”
The most-bet game at multiple sportsbooks was the Philadelphia Eagles-Buffalo Bills game, which the books got sided on, as it closed Eagles -3 and Philadelphia won 37-34 in overtime (the game also went well OVER the total of 48.5). With the line as high as Eagles -3.5 earlier in the week, and as low as Eagles -2.5 on Sunday, bettors could’ve won on either side — never a good situation for sportsbooks.
“The Eagles winning in overtime was a horrible result, especially considering the Chiefs covered,” Christian Cipollini, sportsbook trader at BetMGM told For The Win via text. “We really didn’t get many to go our way [Sunday].”
The Pittsburgh Steelers (16-10 win over Cincinnati as 2.5-point favorites), Jacksonville Jaguars (24-21 win as 1-point favorites over Houston) and Tennessee Titans (17-10 win as 3.5-point favorites over Carolina) provided other early-slate winners for bettors.
The biggest reported bet of the day won in the Titans game, as one bettor cashed a $200,000 wager on Tennessee -3.5.
In the late window, the Kansas City Chiefs were attached to many money-line parlays and teasers, along with being heavily-bet as 9-point road favorites in Las Vegas against the Raiders. The Chiefs fell behind 14-0, but rallied to win (and cover) 31-17.
As Ed Salmons, vice president of risk at SuperBook Sports succinctly put it: “Favorites went 8-2 and the only dogs that covered were against the Patriots and Saints, which the public had zero interest in.”
Salmons said that before the Sunday night game, which also went the way of the bettors, as a late Zay Flowers touchdown run sprung the Baltimore Ravens to a 20-10 win — and cover — over the Los Angeles Chargers as 3-point favorites. At DraftKings Sportsbook, 81 percent of wagers and 77 percent of total dollars wagered were on Baltimore, in the most lopsided betting split of any game all day. The Ravens to cover had the second-most wagers at BetMGM sportsbooks.
“Overall, we had an OK day,” Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata told For The Win via text. “The Eagles game falling right on 3 and going over didn’t do us any favors. But we had a decent amount of teaser liability tied to the Browns, so the Broncos winning that game going away was very helpful.”
For the week, NFL sides at DraftKings Sportsbook with over 50 percent of the bets went 10-1 ATS on Sunday and are a remarkable 13-2 ATS in Week 13.
Even with the losses, something tells me the sportsbooks will be open for business today.