Gotham Awards predictions: Our odds favor ‘Past Lives,’ but expect the juries to spread the wealth

“Past Lives” is the overwhelming favorite to win Best Feature at the 2023 Gotham Awards, which will be presented tonight at Cipriani Wall Street in New York City. That’s according to the predictions of more than 1,000 Gold Derby users who have placed their bets here in our predictions center. Those predictions were combined to generate our official racetrack odds in all 10 competitive categories. Scroll down to see those odds with our projected winners highlighted in gold.

A romantic drama about childhood friends separated for years, “Past Lives” is the front-runner for Best Feature and Breakthrough Director for its first-time filmmaker Celine Song. Could it achieve a clean sweep by winning its third nomination for lead performer Greta Lee? It’s possible, but she’s in a tight race with front-runner Jeffrey Wright (“American Fiction“) for that award.

Elsewhere, “Poor Things” is expected to be named Best International Feature, “20 Days in Mariupol” gets best odds for Best Documentary, and the top TV series awards will go to sci-fi horror drama “The Last of Us” and vengeful black comedy “Beef.” But keep in mind that this is an awards show where literally anyone can win. That’s because winners are typically decided by small juries of industry professionals. Those juries differ from category to category and from year to year. That makes the outcomes tough to foresee, but it also levels the playing field for lower-profile contenders that may not have as much marketing muscle behind them.

We’ve seen that level playing field produce victories for under the radar gems like “The Rider” and underappreciated performers like Nicole Beharie (“Miss Juneteenth”) and Frankie Faison (“The Killing of Kenneth Chamberlain”). Will there be similar upsets this time around? Here’s who we think will prevail.

BEST FEATURE
“Past Lives” — 31/10
“Passages” — 4/1
“A Thousand and One” — 4/1
“Showing Up” — 9/2
“Reality” — 9/2

BEST DOCUMENTARY
“20 Days in Mariupol” — 82/25
“Four Daughters” — 39/10
“Our Body” — 4/1
“Against the Tide” — 9/2
“Apolonia, Apolonia” — 9/2

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
“Poor Things” — 7/2
“The Zone of Interest” — 37/10
“All of Us Strangers” — 4/1
“Anatomy of a Fall” — 9/2
“Totem” — 9/2

BREAKTHROUGH DIRECTOR AWARD
Celine Song, “Past Lives” — 31/10
A.V. Rockwell, “A Thousand and One” — 4/1
Raven Jackson, “All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt” — 4/1
Georgia Oakley, “Blue Jean” — 9/2
Michelle Garza Cevera, “Huesara” — 9/2

BEST SCREENPLAY
“All of Us Strangers” — 69/20
“Anatomy of a Fall” — 19/5
“The Zone of Interest” — 4/1
“May December” — 4/1
“R.M.N.” — 9/2

BEST LEAD PERFORMANCE
Jeffrey Wright, “American Fiction” — 7/1
Greta Lee, “Past Lives” — 7/1
Andrew Scott, “All of Us Strangers” — 15/2
Teyana Taylor, “A Thousand and One” — 8/1
Cailee Spaeny, “Priscilla” — 17/2
Lily Gladstone, “The Unknown Country” — 9/1
Franz Rogowski, “Passages” — 21/2
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, “Origin” — 21/2
Michelle Williams, “Showing Up” — 12/1
Babetida Sadjo, “Our Father, The Devil” — 14/1

BEST SUPPORTING PERFORMANCE
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers” — 7/1
Charles Melton, “May December” — 15/2
Ryan Gosling, “Barbie” — 8/1
Claire Foy, “All of Us Strangers” — 8/1
Sandra Huller, “The Zone of Interest” — 9/1
Rachel McAdams, “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” — 9/1
Glenn Howerton, “BlackBerry” — 19/2
Penelope Cruz, “Ferrari” — 10/1
Juliette Binoche, “The Taste of Things” — 23/2
Jamie Foxx, “They Cloned Tyrone” — 14/1

BREAKTHROUGH SERIES (LONG FORM)
“The Last of Us” — 71/20
“Telemarketers” — 9/2
“A Small Light” — 5/1
“Interview with the Vampire” — 11/2
“Dead Ringers” — 6/1
“The English” — 13/2

BREAKTHROUGH SERIES (SHORT FORM)
“Beef” — 16/5
“Swarm” — 19/5
“I’m a Virgo” — 9/2
“Rain Dogs” — 9/2
“High School” — 9/2

BEST PERFORMANCE IN A NEW SERIES
Dominique Fishback, “Swarm” — 7/1
Steven Yeun, “Beef” — 7/1
Ali Wong, “Beef” — 15/2
Bella Ramsey, “The Last of Us” — 17/2
Rachel Weisz, “Dead Ringers” — 17/2
Natasha Lyonne, “Poker Face” — 19/2
Chaske Spencer, “The English” — 10/1
Bel Powley, “A Small Light” — 10/1
Jacob Anderson, “Interview with the Vampire” — 13/1
Jharrel Jerome, “I’m a Virgo” — 13/1

Be sure to make your Gotham predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see this year’s contenders are faring in our Gotham odds. You can keep changing your predictions until winners are announced. And join the discussion on this and more taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movies forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.