The potentially high ceiling for Trump’s running mate
Being former President Trump’s running mate could be America’s best political position in two generations. The reason? This person will be the heir apparent to the potential Trump tapped but failed to fully harness: conservative populism. Not since Dwight Eisenhower in 1952 has there been such a clear prospect of such a potentially potent legacy.
Donald Trump is entering next year’s presidential campaign ahead in most national polls. (He leads President Joe Biden 47 percent to 45 percent in Real Clear Politics average of national two-way matchup polls.) He leads by even more in the six crucial battleground state polls. In Bloomberg/Morning Consult’s Nov. 10 polls, Trump led in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Wisconsin. If these hold, it will flip the Electoral College to him.
What Trump does not have at the moment is a running mate.
While the vice presidency’s importance in an administration has been frequently and famously dismissed, its importance in future presidential contests is indisputable. Since 1952, there have been 13 vice presidential running mates who later received their party’s nomination for the presidency.
While time and circumstances may not work out later for some running mates, both often do. Being a vice presidential running mate puts a person on the inside track for a future race. The reasons for this are many.
If the person winds up serving as vice president, then this provides invaluable experience. It also associates that person with winning, even if just as second-fiddle. Even if the running mate’s ticket does not win, there is immense national exposure — particularly to the party faithful and donors who will decide future nominees. And taking the job also earns substantial party chits that can translate into future thanks for having taken on a mostly thankless job.
In addition to all these considerations, being Trump’s running mate also offers something else: access to the large populist conservative wave that Trump has been riding since 2016.
Trump has his own sizable following to be sure. He won 46 percent of the popular vote in 2016 and increased that to 47 percent in 2020. Several national polls already have him registering above those levels now.
Still, as well as Trump has performed and is performing now, he is tapping only a part of his potential support. According to 2020 exit polling, Trump lost 6 percent of Republicans. He also lost 15 percent of conservatives, 36 percent of moderates and 49 percent of independents.
The reason is no mystery: Trump’s baggage. His impressive electoral and polling results are coming despite the public’s perception of him. According to Real Clear Politics’s average of national favorability ratings, Trump’s net rating is minus 15.2 percent. His average favorability rating is just 40.3 percent — well below his 47.2 percent average in head-to-head matchups with Biden.
In short, Trump has left and continues to leave a lot of votes on the table. A lot of votes that Trump’s running mate could have access to.
While Trump could not tap conservative populism’s full potential, a more favorably viewed Republican could.
There are other reasons that being the caboose on the Trump train would be attractive. Topping it: Should Trump win, his vice president will have to wait only four years to cash in the chits earned. Because Trump has already served one term as president, he constitutionally cannot serve another if elected again. That means his vice president could spend four years in the administration preparing to run immediately — and instantly being treated as 2028’s frontrunner the whole time.
Another reason would be the potential Democratic opponent. The Democratic bench was woefully thin eight years ago; it is even thinner now. As bad as Biden is polling now, it could not possibly be him again. Vice President Kamala Harris? At 36.5 percent, she is viewed even less favorably than Biden or Trump now. And there is no telling how deranged and leftist a Trump 2024 victory would leave a Democratic field in 2028: Just compare how much further left Trump drove the Democrats after he won in 2016.
Not since the widely admired Eisenhower announced he would seek the Republican Party’s nomination will a spot on a ticket offer such political potential. Sure, other presidential candidates have won landslide victories since — Johnson in 1964, Nixon in 1972 and Reagan in 1984 — but when they were picking their political partners, landslides were hardly as inevitable as Ike’s was.
Is accepting Trump’s invitation to join a guarantee? Hardly. It did not work out well for Mike Pence. However, politicians take fliers on a lot less. And this one has the great potential to fly much farther and higher than most.
J.T. Young was a professional staffer in the House and Senate from 1987-2000, served in the Department of Treasury and Office of Management and Budget from 2001-2004, and was director of government relations for a Fortune 20 company from 2004-2023.