FOX Super 6 NFL contest: OutKick handicapper Geoff Clark’s Week 13 picks
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I’m going chalk with this pick. I have too much respect for the New Orleans Saints’ defense and the San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles is going to be a slug-fest.
The Washington Commanders on the other hand, allow the 3rd-most passing yards per game and have the worst opponent’s QB Rating in the NFL.
Also, Washington traded away its two best pass rushers, Montez Sweat and Chase Young, earlier this year. Since Week 9, the Commanders have 10 sacks. But, nine of them were vs. the New York Giants and Washington has 0 sacks in two of four games over that span.
More importantly, Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is 2nd among NFL quarterbacks in success rate and 3rd in passing yards per game.
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PICK: Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa
Washington’s defense is currently a dumpster-fire. The Commanders are giving up the most points per game (29.2) and Washington coach Ron Rivera fired defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio after losing 45-10 to the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving.
The Detroit Lions have the most potent offense of the three remaining options. They are 7th in points per game (26.7), Lions QB Jared Goff has a ton of weapons, and Detroit’s offensive line is a top-five unit in football.
Speaking of "dumpster-fires," New Orleans’ offense is hot garbage this season. Saints 1st-year QB Derek Carr appears to be a terrible offseason signing and NOLA coach Dennis Allen is a former defensive coordinator and it shows.
Lastly, Washington’s offense has some pop but Miami’s defense is rounding into form since the return of CB Jalen Ramsey. The Dolphins are allowing just 16.0 points per game since Week 8 and the Commanders have several no-shows this season.
PICK: 1- Dolphins, 2- Lions, 3- Saints, and 4- Commanders
This pick correlates with the previous two questions and Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle is coming off of his 2nd-best game this season. Waddle caught 8 passes for 114 yards last week vs. the New York Jets, which is one of the best defenses in the NFL.
Last season, Waddle led the NFL with 18.1 yards per reception and Miami WR Tyreek Hill‘s presence allows Waddle to get one-on-one match ups vs. the opponents’ 2nd-best cornerbacks.
PICK: Miami Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle
Jets RB Breece Hall‘s down-to-down production has been lackluster this season but his big-play potential is still there. Plus, Hall is 4th in rushing yards above expectation per carry, according to NFL’s Next Gen Stats.
Niners RB Christian McCaffrey is certainly the best running back in this pool. However, CMC is playing against the best rushing defense (Philadelphia) among the options.
Cleveland RB Jerome Ford ranks 44th out of 47 qualifying running backs in success rate at 40.0%. Granted, that’s better than Hall who is dead-last. But, I have more faith in the Los Angeles Rams’ run defense than the Atlanta Falcons’.
Finally, Lions RB David Montgomery is their short-yardage and goal-line running back. The Saints have Pro Bowl talent in all three levels of their defense and I expect New Orleans to minimize Detroit’s chunk plays.
PICK: 1- Jets RB Breece Hall, 2- Niners RB Christian McCaffrey, 3- Browns RB Jerome Ford, 4- Lions RB David Montgomery
New Orleans is 29th in red-zone scoring rate and Saints PK Blake Grupe has the 2nd-most field goal attempts inside of 30 yards, ahead of the other three kickers here. Grupe made five FGs last week vs. the Falcons.
PICK: New Orleans Saints PK Blake Grupe
Eagles win, tie or lose by 2 points or fewer | 49ers win by 3 or more points
This is the ultimate revenge game for the Niners. Philadelphia beat San Francisco 31-7 in the NFC title game last postseason after Niners QB Brock Purdy got injured in the 1st half.
Also, the 10-1 Eagles being home underdogs suggests the sportsbooks are BEGGING for pro-49ers money. I have a hunch money will come pouring in on Philadelphia closer to kickoff.
That said, the market ranks San Francisco as the best team in the NFL, 3.6 points better than Philly, per Inpredictable.com. Aside from maybe QB, the Niners are better at every position on the field and they are 8-1 as road favorites vs. winning teams under head coach Kyle Shanahan.
PICK: San Francisco 49ers