Will an FSU victory in ACC championship game be enough to secure a spot in CFP? | Analysis
TALLAHASSEE — While the overall strength of the ACC is an annual debate, there’s little doubt that Florida State and Louisville were the top two teams in the league in 2023.
The Seminoles and Cardinals have compiled notable resume wins: FSU has taken down a pair of CFP-ranked teams (No. 13 LSU and No. 23 Clemson) as well as rivals Florida and Miami, while Louisville has one ranked win (No. 17 Notre Dame) as well as victories over N.C. State, Miami and Duke.
“Got all the respect in the world for Louisville and who they are,” FSU coach Mike Norvell said. “This is a very complete football team — offense, defense, special teams.”
When Florida State and Louisville face off in the ACC title game, it’s a matchup of teams that have been tested and are tied for the most wins (seven) nationally against bowl-eligible Power 5 programs.
Here are three questions ahead of Saturday’s game (8 p.m. on ABC):
Can FSU run against Louisville’s stingy rush defense?
They will have to find a way, especially with Tate Rodemaker still learning on the fly in start No. 3. Louisville held Notre Dame to 44 yards on 28 carries, and the Cardinals are 12th in the nation against the run. They have allowed just 3.29 yards per carry against FBS teams.
FSU had mostly short to modest gains at Florida before Trey Benson broke away with a few long touchdown runs in the win. Of his 95 rushing yards, 94 came after initial contact (per Pro Football Focus). The Seminoles’ offensive line is deep, but it’s been depleted due to injury.
“They’re going to be ready to battle because we have our hands full with an extremely impressive Louisville front,” Norvell said.
Will Rodemaker improve in postseason?
Two reasons for optimism: Rodemaker is gaining experience in pressure-filled situations and the Seminoles won’t face another pressure-cooker like The Swamp. The Seminoles will play at neutral sites the rest of the way (CFP or NY6 bowl). An FSU-Louisville game could feature more of a 50-50 crowd than FSU-Clemson or FSU-North Carolina.
Rodemaker was 12 of 25 for 134 yards at UF, but he impressed with some clutch throws. Norvell and offensive coordinator Alex Atkins praised a fourth-and-3 dart to Ja’Khi Douglas for a first down on FSU’s go-ahead drive in the fourth quarter.
“The No. 1 thing I loved about him is he didn’t turn the ball over,” Atkins said.
Win and FSU is in … right?
No unbeaten Power 5 program has been leapfrogged by a one-loss team in the various formats that have determined national champions in the last 25 years. It’s tough to see an ACC champion FSU at 13-0 being left out.
But that hasn’t stopped chaos scenarios, primarily those that hinge on a victory by No. 8 Alabama over No. 1 Georgia in the SEC title game. Would the CFP truly shut out the SEC if the Bulldogs lose, keeping them or the Crimson Tide out of the top four? CFP members said Jordan Travis’ injury had no bearing on FSU’s ranking a week ago. But CFP committee chair Boo Corrigan’s answer on Tuesday was somewhat ambiguous.
“We’re just evaluating it at this point where they [Seminoles] are with the body of work throughout the season, while a topic of discussion, as injuries should be at this point, and player availability, if you will, it’s a big part of the conversation,” Corrigan said.
The CFP’s final decision will be revealed on Sunday (ESPN, noon).