Mets Take Gamble With Former Star Pitcher Luis Severino

Luis Severino, RHP

Position: RHP B/T: R/R
Age: 29 (02/24/1994)

2023 Traditional Stats: 19 G (18 S), 4-8, 89 1/3 IP, 6.65 ERA, 79 SO, 34 BB, 1.646 WHIP
2023 Advanced Stats: 65 ERA+, 6.14 FIP, 7.96 K/9, 3.43 BB/9, 18.9 K%, 8.2 BB%, 42.2 GB%, -1.5 bWAR

Rundown

The Mets made an interesting move on Wednesday, adding Luis Severino on a one-year deal. They clearly need starting pitching help, and their first step to solving that problem was acquiring a risky but potentially beneficial right-hander.

Severino was once of the top rising pitchers in all of baseball. He dazzled in 2017, posting a 2.98 ERA over 31 starts with a 10.7 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9. His efforts earned him third place in Cy Young voting. He followed that up with a strong 2018 campaign, putting up a 3.39 ERA and placing ninth in Cy Young.

But then he got Tommy John surgery. He threw just 12 innings in 2019, missed 2020, and tossed only six innings in 2021. He came back strong in 2022; though he still made only 19 starts, he posted a 3.18 ERA with 112 strikeouts in 102 innings.

Disaster struck in 2023. Severino’s ERA burst to 6.65, with an ugly 2.3 HR/9 and 11.4 H/9. His strikeout and walk rates were below career marks as well. This deal is entirely about seeing if Severino can bounce back — if he still has some of that 2017/2018 juice in him. It’s not as surefire a transaction as Mets fans were likely hoping, with the rotation already in such a state of disarray, but it’s certainly not the last dent they’re planning on making in the starting pitching department.

Contract

Severino signed for one year and $13 million. It seems like a fair deal, compensating for both sides of the equation; Severino wasn’t good last year and hasn’t pitched a full season since 2018, which wasn’t going to land him a long-term deal. However, there’s still a lot of upside and he isn’t terrifically old yet, earning him a decent AAV as a “prove it” gesture. In Severino’s ideal world, he’ll have a Comeback Player of the Year-esque campaign and get a larger contract next offseason.

Deeper Look

Despite Severino’s struggles last year, he’s still a solid bounceback candidate. For one thing, he’s still throwing hard; he averaged 96.5 mph on his four-seam fastball last year. He showed flashes of his vintage self late last season, getting hitters to chase high-90s heat up in the zone and throwing a wipeout high-80s slider. Along with the eye test, Baseball Savant shows that his slider still has a lot of movement on it, with 3.2 inches of vertical break vs. average and 4.8 inches of horizontal break vs. average.

The average velocity of Severino’s slider was down overall, as he averaged 88-89 mph during his prime years but only 84.6 last season. However, he was still hitting 88 with it at the end of the year, indicating that perhaps he’s finally moving past the injuries that have hampered his career.

MMO’s Ari Berkowitz noted in an article for Prime Time Sports Talk that a lot of the stress inflicted on Severino’s elbow comes from collapsing his backside too early. This is something he’ll have to monitor, and he’ll certainly work with the Mets’ training staff to get him in as good a place physically as he can be. The Mets don’t exactly have the most sterling reputation at keeping pitchers healthy, and it’s easy to be cynical that Severino is the answer to their troubles if you’re a Mets fan.

But, if you’re looking for a silver lining or a reason for optimism, it’s not quite fair to label Severino as another run-of-the-mill, aging, past-his-prime pitcher. He’s still yet to turn 30 (though he will be 3o before opening day), meaning that, theoretically, he should have some life left in him. And he’s still throwing hard with some bite to his slider. He’s not at the end of his rope like many of the old players the Mets have acquired in the past. Of course, some pitchers age quicker than others, and injuries affect some more than others. But Severino’s relatively young age should be a reason for hope.

Grade: C+

In a best case scenario, the Mets acquired a co-ace to complement Kodai Senga. In a worst case scenario, Severino will either put up another -1.5 WAR season or get hurt again. The more likely outcome is somewhere in the middle. Severino will probably be slotted into the No. 3 spot in the rotation as currently constructed, with José Quintana‘s recent success giving him the edge (despite being an aging pitcher coming off an injury-hampered season of his own).

Of course, the Mets aren’t done. There’s a lot of offseason left, and there’s a lot the Mets still need to do to give them a reasonable chance of competitiveness. They’ve been heavily tied to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, with reports that they’re hoping to acquire both him and Shōta Imanaga. Making a big splash like that has the potential to completely reverse the fate of the Mets’ rotation. In that case, they’d only be looking to Severino as a No. 4 or 5 starter (with a six-man rotation potentially at play), making his resurgence more of a bonus if it is to transpire.

And if it doesn’t work out, he’s only signed for one year. It’s no huge detriment if Severino can’t find a path back to greatness with the Mets. But the risk factor is too high to rely on Severino or bill him as the Mets’ big move this offseason. He’s a good start, but the Mets need to build from here if they want to construct a playoff contender in 2024.

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